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A 60-day extension to the truce between the Houthis and Yemeni government-aligned forces offers some hope that a resolution of the region’s most destructive conflict may be getting closer, but kidnappings and attacks by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) point to another threat to stability in the south, which could yet drag the United States and others back into the crisis zone.

United Nations envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg told the UN Security Council on 14 June there had been no confirmed airstrikes inside Yemen, or cross-border attacks from Yemen, since the first country-wide ceasefire in six years, announced on 2 April. A 60-day extension to the truce was announced by Grundberg on 2 June.  

A five-day exercise led by Saudi Arabian Western Fleet commander Rear Admiral Yahya Bin Mohammed Al-Asiri and involving Egyptian, Djiboutian, Jordanian, Sudanese and Yemeni forces concluded in June.

The United States is reportedly drawing up plans for a defence co-operation agreement between Israel and the six Gulf Co-operation Council states, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, to counter the perceived threat from Iran.

Amid growing concerns that Iran is getting ever closer to a nuclear weapons capability, there are hints that Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be making fresh preparations for their own access to atomic weapons, with Pakistan seen as the key enabler. There are many reasons for them not to move ahead on this track, but that does not necessarily mean plans won’t progress, given distrust of US security guarantees, the perpetual Iranian standoff and the monarchies’ own ambitions to project regional power.

Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nejada) commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani has said Iranian shipping faces increased piracy risks in the Red Sea. Nejada has maintained a continuous at-sea presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2008, usually consisting of a frigate and one of its two Bandar Abbas class light replenishment oilers, sometimes supplemented by a third ship. 

Israel is adopting a more proactive, aggressive approach to countering the Iranian nuclear threat and regional ambitions with covert action against Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) figures in Tehran and the four-week Exercise Chariots of Fire, which is expected to culminate with a simulated air strike and commando attacks on Iran.

Iran appears to have succeeded in placing at least one surveillance mini-satellite into orbit in late December, based on imagery released this month showing large parts of the Bahraini capital Manama, including the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet.

GSN Risk Grade – F6. Alimi takes charge: Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) chairman Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi held talks with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman Bin Abdelaziz at Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah on 28 April, with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in attendance.

Regular analysis of satellite imagery of Perim Island in the Bab El Mandeb strait over recent weeks suggests a new 1,900m runway planned by the UAE remains incomplete, although enough of it has been built to mean it is probably usable by tactical transport aircraft.

Oman has used its good offices to secure the release of more than a dozen foreign nationals in Yemen, including crew members of the UAE-flagged cargo ship Rwabee, which was captured by Houthi rebels in January.

The Iranian Army (Artesh) put a number of previously-unseen pieces of kit on display during the annual Army Day parade in Tehran on 18 April. The parade, overseen by President Ebrahim Raisi, featured the army’s ground forces, Air Force, Air Defence Force and the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nejada).

Chinese defence minister General Wei Fenghe made a brief tour of the Gulf in April, starting with a visit to Tehran on 27 April. He held talks on military cooperation and other matters with defence and armed forces logistics minister Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani and other senior officials.

Questions are again being asked about the UAE’s long-term intentions for Socotra, with signs it may be looking to further cement its position on the island, in part by highlighting its differences from mainland Yemen.

An attempt by GCC secretary-general Nayef Al-Hajraf to convene a fresh round of dialogue in Riyadh for Yemen war belligerents appears to have failed, with the Houthis refusing to take part. However, there are signs of further Saudi-inspired political initiatives to break the stalemate on the ground, which could have significant consequences for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the wider political process.