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Iranian forces have unveiled a new launch system for the Shahed-136 drone’s latest variant, giving clear indications of how the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Ground Forces (Nezaja) intends to deploy the ‘suicide’ drones – which appears to have become the attack weapon of choice.

A consignment of 52 Iranian-made Dehlavieh anti-tank missiles has been intercepted at the Al-Mazyunah border crossing between Oman and Yemen. The missiles were hidden in a consignment of four electrical generators, which had been rigged to appear fully operational should they have been test-run at the border.

A BBC report citing Israeli intelligence’s allegedly widespread recruitment of high-ranking Iranian officers points to one possible cause of a series of security failures in recent years. As well as alleged Israeli penetration, enemy action and internal disloyalty have contributed to security problems that have dogged Iran – in turn having a disruptive impact on security, scientific and other institutions, a GSN analyst concludes.

Amid reports of a possibly imminent reinstatement of a reworked Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, it is likely that Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon capability may again slow down. While that will be welcomed by its regional foes, military planners’ attention is likely to switch to missiles and other categories of weaponry. GSN assesses the balance of forces and how Iran, Saudi Arabia, other GCC states and Israel are likely to further arm themselves with missile technology.

Houthi attempts to fire missiles at the UAE in January underlined the Yemeni rebel movement’s ability to project drones and basic missiles across a wider region. GSN examines the Houthi movement’s long history and current capabilities with missiles.

Since the Iran-Iraq War, Tehran has been the regional leader in terms of its missile arsenal, with increasingly sophisticated, locally-produced systems under Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC – Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami) control.

Other Gulf states have smaller missile inventories, which could be used in any future conflict with Iran. GSN examines the missile capabilities of UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.

Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Amir Hatami as his advisor on army affairs on 9 February.

Following the failed January attacks on Abu Dhabi launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Ministry of Defence has released videos showing its forces counterattacking the launch sites allegedly used by the Houthis. This response highlights the fact that the UAE has greater intelligence capabilities than, for example, neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which has suffered many more strikes from Yemen over the years

The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nejada) and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (Nedsa) carried out a now annual joint naval exercise with the Russian and Chinese navies in late January.

A series of missile and drone attacks on the UAE killed two people but unnerved many more local residents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as well as international allies. The strikes carried a clear political message, coming as the South Korean and Israeli presidents were visiting Mohammed Bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi. The UAE has been quick to react by bombing Houthi missile launch sites in Yemen, but it is clear that Abu Dhabi’s efforts to distance itself from the conflict over the past three years have not succeeded.

A Houthi drone attack on Abu Dhabi as GSN went to press exposed the UAE’s vulnerabilities and offered a further incentive for GCC countries to expand their domestic defence industries and their range of overseas suppliers. Billions of dollars are being spent in a region that is confronted by a range of risks, from a Yemen conflict that has become a major humanitarian disaster to Iran, with its projection of force in the ‘near abroad’ and nuclear ambitions.

The UAE has yet to take any firm action following the Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi International Airport and an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) fuel depot at nearby Mussafah on 17 January, which reportedly killed three people. However, the government has said it “reserves the right to respond to these terrorist attacks and criminal escalation”.

Iranian officials including foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Islamic Republic of Iran Border Guards commander Brigadier General Ahmad Ali Goudarzi have been holding talks with senior figures from neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan against a backdrop of security incidents in Iran’s eastern border provinces

Numerous Peshmerga fighters were killed and injured in a series of confrontations with Islamic State (IS or Daesh) forces in northern Iraq in late November and early December. At least seven Peshmerga were killed and another seven injured in IS attacks north in Garmyan region, south of Sulemaniyah, in late November.