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GSN Risk Grade: F6 US explosives seizure: The United States Navy said it had intercepted a fishing vessel in international waters in the Gulf of Oman on 8 November and found a large quantity of explosive material which it said was being smuggled from Iran to Yemen.

Since the six-month ceasefire in Yemen ended in early October, Houthi forces have launched a series of drone attacks on energy infrastructure targets. To date, they have caused minimal damage, but the rebel group showed during the summer that it has a large stock of weapons at its disposal and more strikes seem likely.

Forces aligned with Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) have claimed a major victory in Abyan, following an operation launched on 23 August to clear the governorate of "terrorist elements".

That the legendary late head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp’s Quds Force, Qassim Soleimani, has not been forgotten following his January 2020 assassination by the United States was underlined by a 2 November tweet on Iranian Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Twitter account.

Protestors have refused to stand down in the face of sometimes overwhelming state force in the seven weeks since Mahsa Amini died in custody. The movement’s support base has spread across the country and into parts of society not usually associated with political demonstrations, putting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under unprecedented pressure. His regime is not yet facing the end, but the challenge to the clerical/military leadership will not fade easily or quickly.

Iranian drones are now being seen regularly over the Ukrainian battlefield, following previous reports of a supply deal between Tehran and Moscow.

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (Nedsa) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nedaja) were both involved in attempts to seize United States Navy (USN) unmanned surface vessels (USV) in late August and early September.

An attack on Iraq's Barakh resort in the mountains of northern Dohuk province  has taken relations between Baghdad and Ankara to a new low. Turkey denied carrying out the attack, blaming the PKK instead.

Dana Gas has suspended a project to expand output at the Khor Mor gas field, following a series of rocket attacks in Iraq.

Sultan Haitham bin Tarik promoted Brigadier Mohammed Bin Rabe Bin Jamaan Al-Shujaibi to the rank of Major General and appointed him as operations assistant to the Internal Security Service head Lieutenant General Said Bin Ali Al-Hilali.

The head of intelligence of Iran’s IRGC Hossein Taeb has been replaced after 13 years in post, with counter-intelligence chief Brigadier General Mohammad Kazzemi taking over. The change comes after a series of mysterious deaths of IRGC personnel and a recent drone attack on a military site near Tehran.

A 60-day extension to the truce between the Houthis and Yemeni government-aligned forces offers some hope that a resolution of the region’s most destructive conflict may be getting closer, but kidnappings and attacks by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) point to another threat to stability in the south, which could yet drag the United States and others back into the crisis zone.

UAE national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan made a low-profile official visit to London, which ended on 13 June. It included meetings with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, UK national security adviser Stephen Lovegrove and business executives.

Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nejada) commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani has said Iranian shipping faces increased piracy risks in the Red Sea. Nejada has maintained a continuous at-sea presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2008, usually consisting of a frigate and one of its two Bandar Abbas class light replenishment oilers, sometimes supplemented by a third ship.