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There are signs that the drone war in Yemen could be entering a new phase, with wider deployment of unmanned aircraft by several groups involved in the conflict. While Houthi drone capabilities, facilitated by Iran, are well established, observers point out that pro-government forces are also now deploying their own drone assets, allegedly provided by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition. There were fears among southern forces that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) may also join the drone war, as pressures mount across the south.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani travelled to Berlin in January for an official visit – his first to Europe since taking office in October. Energy and security issues dominated the agenda, with discussions about potential Iraqi gas supplies to Germany and the ongoing work by Siemens Energy to rehabilitate Iraq’s electricity sector, following a deal with the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity in 2019.

Following the change in the UAE's chief of staff, Ali Mohammed Hammad Al-Shamsi was promoted in January to Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS) secretary general (SG) via another federal decree. Al-Shamsi was previously deputy SG.

The United States Navy said it had seized 2,116 AK-47 assault rifles in the Gulf of Oman in January that were being sent from Iran to Yemen.

For all United Nations special envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg’s efforts at shuttle diplomacy, the continued failure to relaunch the UN-backed ceasefire – which ended in October – has raised the prospect of renewed threats to shipping in the waters around Yemen. This has particular resonance for the UAE, which has often resorted to using commercial vessels as part of its security response.

The Iranian authorities’ harsh crackdown on the protesters appears to be having an impact, with far fewer public demonstrations now being reported. Thousands have been arrested and at least four protestors have been hanged following what critics have called sham trials.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force provides a command and control template that facilitates the IRGC’s work with allies across the region, led by Lebanese Hizbollah and apparent in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Iran appears to have resumed its campaign of striking tankers in the Gulf of Oman, after the Bahrain-based US Naval Forces Central Command (Navcent) reported that the Pacific Zircon oil products tanker had been struck by an Iranian-made explosive drone off Fujairah, en route to Argentina.

GSN Risk Grade: F6 US explosives seizure: The United States Navy said it had intercepted a fishing vessel in international waters in the Gulf of Oman on 8 November and found a large quantity of explosive material which it said was being smuggled from Iran to Yemen.

Forces aligned with Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) have claimed a major victory in Abyan, following an operation launched on 23 August to clear the governorate of "terrorist elements".

Since the six-month ceasefire in Yemen ended in early October, Houthi forces have launched a series of drone attacks on energy infrastructure targets. To date, they have caused minimal damage, but the rebel group showed during the summer that it has a large stock of weapons at its disposal and more strikes seem likely.

That the legendary late head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp’s Quds Force, Qassim Soleimani, has not been forgotten following his January 2020 assassination by the United States was underlined by a 2 November tweet on Iranian Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Twitter account.

Protestors have refused to stand down in the face of sometimes overwhelming state force in the seven weeks since Mahsa Amini died in custody. The movement’s support base has spread across the country and into parts of society not usually associated with political demonstrations, putting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under unprecedented pressure. His regime is not yet facing the end, but the challenge to the clerical/military leadership will not fade easily or quickly.

Iranian drones are now being seen regularly over the Ukrainian battlefield, following previous reports of a supply deal between Tehran and Moscow.

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.