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Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al- Said, the fourteenth ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, which was founded in 1750. Unlike other Gulf monarchies, Oman’s sultan does not rely on his relatively small family, but on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite. Qaboos, who deposed his father in a bloodless coup, was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; his successor is expected to emerge from a small pool of family members.

Insurgent attacks continue to expose Iraq’s fragility. Dozens of civilians have already been killed in 2013, including 27 Shiites killed by a suicide bomber as they waited at a bus stop to return home from Arbaeen rites in Kerbala. In mid-December, dozens were killed in a series of attacks in disputed northern territories at the heart of a Kurdish-Iraqi standoff. Pressure has been building there since November, when Baghdad set up a new military command, to the outcry of the Kurdish Regional Government. There have also been massive anti-government street protests by Sunnis in recent weeks, prompted by grievances including marginalisation, anti-terrorism laws and the state of public services.

The IMF’s five-year forecast for the Gulf adds to the belief that the GCC has become too comfortable with budgets bloated by high oil prices and spiralling public sector spending. GSN looks at the numbers and the analysis, which suggest that storm clouds may be gathering

Finance minister Ibrahim Bin Abdelaziz Al-Assaf had another opportunity to push Saudi Arabia’s ambition to have a greater say in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when he met its managing director, Christine Lagarde, on 6 October in Riyadh. With the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings taking place in Tokyo on 9-14 October, Riyadh is expected to fight an unusually public battle to protect (and, it hopes, to expand) its quota share, which is currently 2.93% of total SDRs (compared to 17.69% for the US), but is slated to diminish under ongoing reforms.

Aspects of Dubai’s economy are looking much brighter than in recent years, but there are lingering concerns. Dubai remains the region’s principal trade and business hub, and tourism is recovering.

Qatar has a self-imposed moratorium on developing new hydrocarbon projects until 2015, a policy which will see hydrocarbons income slow in the coming years. Non-hydrocarbon growth is predicted to rise (to around 9% in 2011, according to the IMF) on the back of manufacturing, financial services, trade and hotels.

Aspects of Dubai’s economy are looking much brighter, according to the authorities, but there are still serious concerns over other economic factors. Tourism appears to be recovering. But in the real estate market, property values are as much as 60% lower than at their 2008 peak and there are serious concerns over the refinancing of debt at Dubai’s government- related entities (GREs).

Published in May 2012, this graphic illustrates data for the Middle East North Africa region taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Selected indicators include real GDP, consumer price inflation and current account balance. A map of the region is shaded to show revisions to 2012 GDP growth forecasts, while a chart shows fiscal breakeven oil prices.

It has been two years since the Gulf Monetary Council (GMC) – central to the plan for a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) monetary union – was established on 27 March 2010, and well over a decade since the project to introduce a Gulf common currency began. In recent months, a few small steps have been taken by the four Gulf states still on board: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. But global economic woes, regional political uncertainties and fundamental questions about the plan’s economic viability leave the prospects of Gulf monetary integration remote.

Analysts expect the cabinet and opposition-dominated parliament to remain at loggerheads, and say that, in the short term, the stalemate is likely to continue. When parliament opened on 15 February, proceedings were chaotic and, less than a week later, there was a request filed to grill the prime minister.

In royal decrees issued on 29 February, Sultan Qaboos reshuffled the cabinet for the third time in just over a year, removing the unpopular information minister Hamad Bin Mohammed Al-Rashdi and justice minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Hinai.

After many delays, Iraq finally passed its $100bn 2012 budget on 23 February 2012. Based on an oil price of $85/bbl and assuming crude exports of 2.6m b/d, the budget was broadly in line with a draft circulated in December

Parliamentary elections on 2 March will be the first national poll since a 2009 presidential election, in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed 62% of the vote, sparking accusations of rigging and months of protests. With reformists largely sidelined, the March poll is widely viewed as a contest between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad

Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) remains resolutely in command. Until Dubai’s indebtedness was revealed in 2008-09, the emirate’s other most influential powerbrokers tended not to be members of the ruling family. Since the debt crisis, Dubai has seen the emergence of the next generation of the Al-Maktoum, MBR’s sons

Real GDP growth was recorded at 17% in 2010, and is forecast to accelerate to 19% in 2011, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV report issued in December. This considerable economic growth is due to Qatar having huge gas reserves, with significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity.