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Moody's Investors Service upgraded Oman's long-term senior unsecured rating from Ba3 to Ba2 while maintaining the positive outlook. The agency said the change reflected the continued reduction in Oman's sovereign debt burden and its improving debt affordability metrics during 2022.

Oman
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Falling unemployment: The unemployment rate for Saudi nationals fell to 8% in Q4 2022 from 9.9% in Q3 22, according to data released by the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) in early April. The female jobless rate fell from 20.5% to 15.4% over the same period. The Medina region had the highest rate of unemployment among Saudis at 12.2%, followed by Jazan at 11%. Riyadh had the lowest level at 6.7%, with Eastern Province at 6.9% and Mecca at 7%. 

Saudi Arabia
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Ratings uplift: Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its AA- sovereign credit rating but upgraded its outlook from stable to positive on 28 March, citing Qatar's strong external balance sheet, low debt/gross domestic product ratio and high fiscal surplus. Fitch said the additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity due online from the North Field’s expansion would help to reduce an already low fiscal break-even hydrocarbon price.

Qatar
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Omani officials are working on reforms to the welfare system and drawing up measures to encourage more private sector activity, in plans that offer further evidence of Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said’s efforts to move the economy away from state paternalism.

Oman
Issue 1167 - 24 April 2023

Oman: Improvement in ratings outlook

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Ratings boost: Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Oman’s rating to positive from stable on 11 April, while affirming it at BB. S&P Global Ratings had announced the same move on 31 March. Fitch said the change reflected the improvements made in the government debt to gross domestic product ratio, with high oil prices and spending restraint reducing the external liquidity risk. Debt/GDP fell from 61% at end-2021 to 40% a year later and Fitch said it should reach 37% by end-2024.

Oman
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Manama is offering a 'golden licence' to companies that invest in large projects and create hundreds of jobs for locals, in the latest sign of increasingly stiff competition among Gulf economies for international capital

Bahrain
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The Kuwaiti authorities are reviving long-running plans to drastically reduce the number of foreign workers, despite signs that such a policy could harm Kuwait’s ability to develop a viable post-oil economy.

Kuwait
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The Kuwaiti government has proposed cuts to capital spending but sharp rises in current expenditure as part of its budget for fiscal year 2023/24, which starts on 1 April. 

Kuwait
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A hydrocarbons law in Iraq is in the offing, which could provide a stable revenue-sharing platform for years to come, but big obstacles remain to be resolved, leaving Iraqi Kurds in political and financial limbo, while the Kurdish regional oil industry stutters even as big gas developments are being promoted.

Iraq
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Recent developments Attempts continue to renew the ceasefire in Yemen, but the emphasis has switched to finding a permanent settlement. Much of recent diplomatic activity has been necessarily secret. Saudi Arabia appears more urgently determined to extract itself from the war.

Yemen
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GSN Risk Grade Abu Dhabi A1, Dubai – A2↓ Sharjah credit rating: Standard & Poor’s (S&P) revised the outlook on its rating for the emirate from negative to stable on 24 January, while affirming the long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at BBB-. The ratings agency said it expected Sharjah’s overall fiscal position to gradually stabilise between now and 2026, with the deficit reducing over that time.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Budget increase: Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani approved the government’s 2023 budget on 19 December, based on spending of QR199bn ($54.7bn), down 3% compared to the previous year. According to the Ministry of Finance, total revenues for the year have been estimated at QR228bn, a rise of 16% compared to 2022 and leaving a budget surplus of QR29bn.

Qatar
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Improving outlook:  Like most other hydrocarbons exporters, Oman’s economic outlook has been improved by a sustained period of high oil prices. We expect relatively buoyant oil and gas prices to continue through 2023, despite mixed signals from the global market. Added to a perception that economic performance is slowly improving on Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said’s watch, GSN has attached a positive upwards arrow to Oman’s economic and financial risk grade.

Oman
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Mixed outlook but oil buoys economy: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said economic growth was likely to slow down in 2023, after growing by more than 8% in 2022, thanks to higher than expected oil prices.  

Kuwait
Issue 1159 - 01 December 2022

Saudi Arabia: Possible Turkey bailout

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Saudi Arabia is discussing making a $5bn deposit at the Central Bank of Turkey to help prop up the struggling economy, in a further sign that relations are steadily improving after the breakdown in ties following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

Saudi Arabia