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GSN Risk Grade: B↓3 Haitham in Qatar: Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said made a rare visit to another GCC country, with a trip to Qatar on 22-23 November. Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani hosted a lunch on his arrival and the two leaders held talks and witnessed the signing of six agreements covering cooperation on military affairs, taxation, labour, investment, tourism and transport.

Moody’s Investors Service has revised its outlook on the Oman sovereign from negative to stable, citing the “significant easing of government liquidity and external financing pressures” as a result of higher oil prices.

 The government launched a revised timetable to balance its budget on 31 October, alongside plans to cut spending on public sector pay, raise more non-oil revenue and encourage more locals into private sector jobs. The previous aim to balance the budget by 2022 has been pushed back by two years, although economists have cautioned that further reforms will probably still be needed to reach that target.

The government expects state revenues to reach SR930bn ($248bn) this year, around 10% higher than originally outlined in the 2021 budget, according to the preliminary budget statement for 2022. Higher oil revenues are the main factor behind the change.

The UAE federal government raised $4bn in its debut bond sale in early October. The issuance was heavily over-subscribed, with orders of more than $22.5bn. It was split into three parts, with a $1bn, ten-year tranche; a $1bn, 20-year portion; and a $2bn tranche with a 40-year tenor.

GSN Risk Grade – Yemen F6 Overview Politics: Conflict has for years exacerbated multiple humanitarian crises, pushing Yemen towards the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F).

The government is reportedly planning to double the rate of value-added tax (VAT) to 10%, according to a report by Bloomberg on 26 September. Government officials have confirmed that an “adjustment” of the tax will be brought in on 1 January 2022, alongside other measures designed to help reduce the budget deficit, but have yet to announce the extent of any changes.

GSN Risk Grade – Abu Dhabi A↓1, Dubai A↓2 Overview Politics: At the top of each emirate are the rulers’ courts and their crown princes. In practice, only the rulers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai make unilateral decisions and issue emiri decrees; most of the smaller emirates use legislation crafted at federal level.

GSN Risk Grade – B↑1 Overview Politics: Al-Thanis have ruled since the mid-19th century, reinforced by British recognition of their right to govern. 25 years after independence in 1971, the peninsula gained hugely in power, confidence and wealth with ‘Father Emir’ Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani’s drive to develop gas reserves.

GSN Risk Grade – B↓2↓ Overview Politics: Established by King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) in 1932, the kingdom is the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) giant in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. An absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia is ruled by King Salman Bin Abdelaziz, Ibn Saud’s sixth son to assume the throne.

GSN Risk Grade – B↓3 Overview Politics: Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Bin Taimur Al-Said was named ruler in January 2020, succeeding the late Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said as the 15th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty (founded in 1750). Qaboos was a monumental figure who, having deposed his father in 1970, had led Oman since 1970.

GSN Risk Grade – D↓4 Overview Politics: Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions. The 2005 constitution gave the KRI an identity distinct from Iraq, as a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement outlined how power would be shared. 

GSN Risk Grade – C↑3↓ Overview Oil exploration: Italian major Eni has begun drilling on the first exploratory well in offshore Block 1, an area of over 2,800km2 in the northern territorial waters of Bahrain where water depths range from 10 to 70 metres. In May 2019, Eni signed an exploration and production-sharing agreement with National Oil and Gas Authority (Noga) for the block.

German tax authorities are targeting the Dubai-based messaging app Telegram, founded by Russian-born Pavel Durov, and have purchased a stolen cache of data which includes information on German expatriates living in Dubai, in an effort to clamp down on tax avoidance by citizens operating from the emirate.

GSN Risk Grade – Abu Dhabi A↓1, Dubai A↓2 Overview Politics: At the top of each emirate are the rulers’ courts and their crown princes. In practice, only the rulers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai make unilateral decisions and issue emiri decrees; most of the smaller emirates use legislation crafted at federal level. Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah all have executive councils (Dubai’s is relatively informal).