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Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – E5↑  Overview Politics: Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932; it became a republic in 1958. Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial presidency was marked by conflict, including the 1980-88 war with Iran, the 1991 Gulf war and the US-led occupation in 2003, which removed the Baathist regime.

Iraq
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The UAE is to allow foreign nationals to retain full ownership of onshore companies, in the latest of a series of reforms aimed at propping up the economy. A presidential decree announced on 23 November amended 51 articles of the Commercial Companies Law (Federal Law No. 2 of 2015). Most eye-catching was the removal of a requirement for firms to have a majority Emirati shareholder; some strategic sectors including oil and gas exploration, transport and utilities are exempt.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Nasdaq Dubai ICD sukuk listing: The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector has listed a $600m Sukuk (Islamic bond) on the Nasdaq Dubai market, to support private sector activities in the ICD’s 55 member countries. The debt has been allocated to investors in the Middle East, Asia and Europe and brings the total value of Nasdaq Dubai’s Sukuk listings to more than $74bn.

Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Jordan | Bahrain | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – E↓5↓ POLITICS: Confronted by conflict, which has exacerbated multiple humanitarian crises, Yemen has long teetered on the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F).

Yemen
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The government has set itself the challenging target of achieving fiscal stability by 2024, as set out in a new Medium-Term Fiscal Plan for 2020-24, in a further sign of reform momentum under Sultan Haitham.

Oman
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Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – A↓1 Politics: Established in 1971, the federation of seven emirates – Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al-Quwain is economically liberal and progressive, but remains politically conservative.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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A royal decree from Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said on 12 October gave confirmation that Oman is to go ahead with the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT), and gave a belated recognition of the fiscal realities facing Muscat.

Oman
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GSN Risk Grade – B↓2↓ Politics: Established by King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) in 1932, the kingdom is the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) giant in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. An absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia is ruled by King Salman Bin Abdelaziz, Ibn Saud’s sixth son to assume the throne.

Saudi Arabia
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Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – B↓2 Emir Sheikh Sabah dies: Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah has passed away, according to a statement from the Emiri Diwan on the afternoon of 29 September. The 91-year-old ruler was in the United States where he had been flown for emergency medical treatment in July.

Kuwait
Issue 1111 - 01 October 2020

Kuwaiti fiscal crisis deepens

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The fiscal situation is reaching a critical stage, with prime minister Sabah Al-Khaled seeking room to raise up to KD5bn ($1bn) in debt in the next six months. MPs have complained that his government has been too secretive about what it intends to do with the money; in mid-August parliament’s financial and economic committee rejected the government’s proposal.

Kuwait
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Seen from the corridors of power in other Gulf capitals, Kuwait has long been a poor argument for allowing a more open political environment. Recent weeks have been no exception, with the National Assembly (parliament) still refusing to pass a long-needed debt law. This position is accentuating a fiscal crisis caused by low oil revenues and the economic damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

Kuwait
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Saudi consumer prices increased by 6.2% year-on-year in August, a slight rise from 6.1% in July. It is the highest inflation level since 2011.The cause of the price rises included higher fuel prices charged by Saudi Aramco, a rise in the cost of phone services and the continued impact of the tripling of value-added tax (VAT) in July from 5% to 15%.

Saudi Arabia
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Several Gulf economies have returned to the international debt markets as they try to get to grips with the fiscal challenge of low oil revenues, subdued economic activity and a need for high spending to offset coronavirus’s impact.

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Fiscal squeeze: The government deficit increased by 98% in H1 2020 compared to the same period last year, as a result of the slump in oil prices and the coronavirus lockdown. Revenues fell 29% year-on-year to BD910m ($2.4bn) while expenditure was up 2% to BD1.7bn, leading to a deficit of BD798m.

Bahrain
Issue 1109 - 03 September 2020

Qatar: Labour law reforms

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Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani announced reforms to the country’s labour laws on 30 August, scrapping the requirement for workers to obtain consent from their employers before changing jobs and introducing a minimum wage of QR1,000 ($274) a month.

Qatar