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To the chagrin of GCC leaders and some others, the UK continues to resist pressure to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp as a terrorist organisation, even as it unveils plans for more far-reaching sanctions on Iran.

Iran
Issue 1174 - 28 July 2023

Saudi-Chinese petrochemicals deal

Subscriber

Saudi Aramco underlined the kingdom's deepening relationships with China when the national champion announced the acquisition of a 10% stake in Rongsheng Petrochemical Company.

Saudi Arabia
Subscriber

Political upgrade: It may seem not the most opportune moment to remove the downwards negative trend arrow from Saudi Arabia’s ‘B’ political risk rating – coming amid more speculation that King Salman Bin Abdelaziz’s health is fading and with the International Monetary Fund giving the kingdom its “steepest growth downgrade among major economies”, as Bloomberg put it on 25 July, and longer-term investment plans in question.

Saudi Arabia
Free

The high-profile campaign to make Saudi Arabia a global power in football, golf and other sports has, in many ways, eclipsed the state's domestic spending – which conventional policy wonks might say should be of greater importance to the 22m population – but the activities of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)'s prized Public Investment Fund (PIF) over the past few months tells an equally important story.

Saudi Arabia
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Sheikh Saeed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan died on 27 July, five days after the UAE's Presidential Court said he had an unspecified "health problem". Funeral prayers were held at Sheikh Sultan Bin Zayed the First Mosque in Al-Bateen. President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) announced three days of mourning for his half-brother.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Securing workable energy, economic and security relations with Turkey has even greater urgency for Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government as the KRG says it can no longer afford to pay its employees’ salaries due to the closure since late March of the vital crude oil export pipeline.

Iraq | Turkey
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Turkish relations with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are a focus for GSN 1,174, as the Kurdistan Regional Government attempts to secure workable energy, economic and security relations – and especially to reopen the Iraq-Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline – while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected in Baghdad. The UK's tightening of sanctions on the Iranian regime is put under a critical spotlight, as GSN presents London's new measures and complaints they don't go far enough. Meanwhile, Iran's deal with Russia to obtain combat aircraft seems to have come unstuck – just at a moment when the United States is building up its forces in the Gulf back to pre-Trump levels.  GSN explores the Saudi Public Investment Fund's deal with the US PGA Tour, giving details of the controversial deal and the people instrumental in making it, while GSN view argues the PIF-led economy is not performing to the hoped-for Vision 2030 levels.Energy and Industry leads with GSN’s continued coverage on connections between the UAE and African resources industries – including mining in Democratic Republic of Congo, where state minister for foreign affairs Sheikh Shakhbut Bin Nahyan Al-Nahyan has been promoting Emirati ambitions on the continent.  This issue’s Risk Management Reports are Qatar – with an accompanying map – and Saudi Arabia, where the lacklustre economic performance also discussed in GSN view  is a longer-term concern, but is insufficient to give Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman any immediate political worries. Indeed, his ruthless approach to opposition means that, for now, MBS gets an RMR political risk upgrade.

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A Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) F-15 SA fighter jet crashed, and its crew was killed, on 26 July, while taking part in a training mission around the city of Khamis Mushait. It is the second serious incident involving an RSAF F-15 jet, after an F-15 S crashed last November, during a routine training mission in the King Abdelaziz Air Base training area in Eastern province.

Saudi Arabia
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Saudi Arabia is trying to leverage its burgeoning relationship with China to further its aims in Yemen. And Chinese officials have expressed some interest in getting involved. However, the UAE views the idea of greater Chinese involvement as an attempt to undermine its position.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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A United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)-led project to remove the estimated 1.14m barrels of oil from the stricken floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel Safer got under way, with the first crude being transferred to the replacement tanker Yemen, which was recently retitled from its previous name of Nautica.

Yemen
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As the UAE extends its interests in mining and other sectors across Africa, state minister for foreign affairs Sheikh Shakhbut Bin Nahyan Al-Nahyan has been meeting leaders around the continent.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Subscriber

A mooted deal for Iran to acquire Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia appears to have been suspended, as defence minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani told local media the transaction was not moving ahead. 

Iran
Subscriber

Oman has introduced a unified national pension scheme, merging the assets and liabilities of 11 existing pension systems into a single Social Protection Fund. The reform is based on a unified regulatory regime for contributions, payments and retirement ages. It will reflect both need and its members' history of payment contributions.

Oman
Subscriber

UAE state minister for foreign affairs Sheikh Shakhbut Bin Nahyan Al-Nahyan has been increasingly active on the African continent, since his four-year stint as ambassador to Saudi Arabia ended in 2021.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Free

Former senior Parastin intelligence agency officer Brigadier General Mohammed Mirza Sindi was killed in Zakho, Iraq's Dohuk governorate, when the car he was travelling in exploded. Parastin has close links to the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Iraq