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Under pressure from a faltering coalition, ruthless political rivals, financial shortfalls and other unresolved problems – including how to accommodate the Kurds and their disappointed ambitions for independence – Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi is looking to court voters with an offer that blends stability and the potential for a better future for the longsuffering population. Ahead of the 12 May general election (it is unclear whether long-delayed provincial elections can be held at the same time), Abadi is offering a peace dividend based on large-scale reconstruction of housing, energy and other infrastructure, a reinvigorated anti-corruption drive and encouragement for foreign and local private investors who might be able to create jobs and transform the economy.

Hardliners flexed their muscles when Republican Guards stormed Tehran’s new international airport, but more pragmatic conservative factions are looking to take Iran in a less confrontational direction. Divisions in the conservative camp are again the biggest factor in Iran’s domestic politics.

After six months of haggling – which is far from a record – the Chamber of Representatives’ 6 May vote has endowed Iraq with a new government. Mustafa AlKadhimi’s administration would face daunting challenges even without the sharply deteriorating economic outlook, triggered by plunging oil revenues. Iraq is one of the biggest losers from the slump: based on an average $30 a barrel ($/bbl) Brent crude price, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a 70% drop in revenues, while Fitch Ratings expects GDP to contract by almost 10% this year. Low oil prices coupled with lower production and exports threaten to drain the funding pool that Iraq’s political elites have traditionally relied on to maintain their patronage networks. But those holding power and influence in Baghdad seem unlikely to change their ways.

With an absent sultan and oil hovering around $60/bbl, Oman’s economic future is up in the air. Economic uncertainty is all the more challenging due to structural shortcomings which, despite decades of planning, remain obstinately in place; if anything, they have worsened over the past three years. Political questions over who will replace Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said – who has been in Germany, where he is understood to be having medical treatment for cancer, for almost eight months (GSN 981/1) – have only ramped up financial jitters.

With the Majlis Al-Shura limited to a consultative role and candidates excluded from promoting policy ideas in campaign literature, traditional allegiances dictated voting patterns in the Sultanat...

Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) owners of land and real estate in Oman have been given until November 2020 to sell up, under the terms of a little-noticed royal decree. Until now the prevailing rule among the six Gulf monarchies has been that the citizens of one GCC country are permitted to buy property in another. However, Royal Decree 29/2018 introduced a series of prohibitions on foreigners owning land and property in designated areas and ordered them to sell such property to Omanis.

Reformists petitioning for change may take heart: municipal elections could take place sooner than expected. Saudi reformists believe the Al- Sauds will cede them the initiative in the face of conservative opposition, but an elected national assembly will take longer to emerge, and new arrests suggest liberal reformists remain vulnerable to reaction.

Humanitarian concerns have forced a ceasefire in Yemen’s murderous Al-Houthi conflict amid signs that the Arab-Iranian ‘cold war’ is hotting up. With Saudi Arabia and Egypt joining the US in seeing wider regional significance in what has long been understood as a localised conflict, Ali Abdullah Saleh is looking to exploit a difficult situation

The contradictory signs emanating from Riyadh over recent weeks – of socially liberalising reforms, a likely easing of some economic reform targets and a fresh crack-down on ‘unhelpful’ commentators – are often hard to make sense of. But within the kingdom they are being read as meaning just one thing: that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has his eyes firmly on the ultimate prize of taking over from his father and whatever needs to be done to ease his path will be done.

The historic 27 September telephone conversation between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his US counterpart Barack Obama has prompted a groundswell of optimism that the nuclear issue could finally be resolved.There are numerous obstacles to overcome however – not least conservative opposition in Iran

The massive attack launched on the critical Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Khurais and Abqaiq early on 14 September was not just another drone strike by the Houthis – as the Yemeni movement claimed – but in all likelihood was launched from Iran, reflecting the extent that the Islamic Republic has emerged as a significant military power. As well as placing unexpected new pressures on the global oil market, it pitched Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and the Saudi leadership into yet another crisis – of how to respond against an enemy that has shown it has the commitment and wherewithal to do great damage – and US President Donald Trump, who newly shorn of his hawkish national security advisor (NSA) John Bolton must articulate a credible response.

Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco)’s future has come under intense scrutiny as potentially momentous reforms to the Saudi economy unfold, driven by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS). The increased transparency implied by Aramco’s much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) could force a significant change in the way the national oil company (NOC) does business. More detailed reserves and production data might emerge that would confirm whether skeptics – such as the late oil investment banker Matthew Simmons, who over a decade ago questioned the giant Ghawar field’s performance – are correct in arguing that Saudi reserves are much diminished from the authorities’ claims. This, in turn, would explain the urgency of the MBS team’s efforts to develop the non-oil economy and pose further questions about the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec)’s relevance.

WhileWestern governments have been fretting over Yemen’s jihadist threat, Ali Abdullah Saleh is confronted by other challenges. Overt opposition from the influential Sheikh Tareq Bin Nasser Al-Fadhli is accelerating a gathering confrontation between the Sanaa regime and an embittered and neglected southern population – which holds the risk of a disastrous new conflict splitting the troubled Yemeni state.

The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit was again overshadowed by the crisis pitting Qatar against the GCC-3 of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (GSN 1,040/1). Qatar attended the 9 December summit – although Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani was one of three heads of state who stayed away from the annual meeting, this year held in Riyadh – but 18 months after the GCC-3’s boycott was launched against Doha it is becoming ever harder to paper over the cracks of regional disunity. There was no sign of any unexpected radical shift in key leaders’ thinking, leaving a consensus that the one-day summit had achieved nothing other than to entrench existing positions.

Colonel Qadhafis most prominent son has an impressive network of friends in the Gulf monarchies, which is good news for all concerned as Libya opens up to its own special version of economic libe...