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UAE and Saudi foreign policy choices are coming under renewed scrutiny as Washington pushes to encourage the Gulf heavyweights to rethink their links to Russia, particularly over energy policy, and their alignments with other autocrats such as recent visitor to Abu Dhabi Syria’s President Assad. GSN has heard of talks between UAE officials and a key Russian figure in the Ukraine war, Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov, which could raise further important questions about the nature of Abu Dhabi’s involvement.

The Musandam branch of the Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OCCI) has set up a new investment company to target the province (see map). OCCI branch chairman Raed Bin Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Shehhi told the local Muscat Daily that the Musandam International Investment Company will act as a source of investment for the province and will support projects across sectors including food security, contracting and building materials, fisheries and transport.

The UAE announced a deal to acquire 80 Rafale F4 fighter bombers from Dassault Aviation on 3 December, during a visit by France’s President Emmanuel Macron. The €16.6bn ($18.7bn) package also includes 12 Airbus H225M long-range transport helicopters, as well as MICA NG medium-range air-to-air missiles and improved versions of the Black Shaheen 550km range cruise missile. Rafale deliveries will start in 2027.

Mena Aerospace Enterprises (MAE) – a company chaired and one-third owned by Sheikh Ahmed Bin Ali Bin Abdullah Al-Khalifa of Bahrain’s ruling family – is expanding beyond its core business aviation services to become an air cargo operator. MAE is also targeting the aviation services market in Saudi Arabia.

There is growing speculation that a cabinet reshuffle is imminent, which would be the third change of senior government personnel since 2019. At least four portfolios are likely to change hands, including a new finance minister to take over from Khalifa Al-Hamadah, who tendered his resignation in August, apparently due to unhappiness at being marginalised in the selection of new board members at Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA). 

The scale of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the US was unprecedented, but the likelihood of a major incident involving jihadists and what had become the American ‘hyperpower’ was no surprise. GSN observed in 1998, years after it had reported on the threat posed by Osama Bin Laden, that there was “little problem in gaining warning of the intentions of America’s foes to attack”. Here, GSN raids its huge archive to report on the run up to the horror of 20 years ago. A Part 2 will cover 9/11’s aftermath and George W Bush’s ‘global war on terror’, which removed the Taliban from Kabul but saw the US bogged down with devastating consequences in Iraq.

With President Joe Biden’s administration formally taking office on 20 January, the US is set to transition to a more traditional foreign policy, based more on national rather than on the personal interest that marked the Donald Trump years. With limited co-operation from the outgoing administration during a uniquely chaotic transition period, Biden has been putting together a team which features a large number of people he worked with while vice president to Barack Obama.

With the emir out of the country for several weeks undergoing medical treatment, Kuwait is facing an escalating political crisis, as lines are drawn between opposition MPs and the government against a backdrop of contentious court rulings.

Shortly before leaving office, US President Donald Trump awarded the Legion of Merit, degree chief commander. to Bahrain’s King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa and King Mohammed VI of Morocco. Essential for Trump, both monarchs have signed up for Abraham Accord normalisation deals with Israel.

The United States is pressing ahead with plans to expand its facilities at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, at Azraq in the eastern desert of Jordan. The budget for the expansion was first approved in 2018 and construction work is being overseen by the US Corps of Engineers.

The International Monetary Fund’s Article IV reviews of Oman and Bahrain, published on 12 and 14 February respectively (following ‘virtual missions’), give further detail of how the Gulf Co-operation Council’s weakest economies have fared over the past year. Oman’s GDP fell by 6.4% last year, which was better than a previous IMF estimate of a 10% slump. Bahrain’s economy shrank by 5.4%, as non-oil GDP fell by 7%. The IMF praised both countries’ response to the Covid-19 pandemic, including the restrictions they imposed on travel and businesses, and their additional expenditure on healthcare and social support.

The wide-reaching reshuffle of defence and security officials has continued, with former Hawwali governor Lieutenant-General Sheikh Ahmed Al-Nawwaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – son of Emir Sheikh Nawwaf – named as deputy head of the National Guard with the rank of minister. This follows the September appointment of Ahmed’s brother Major General Sheikh Salem as head of the State Security Bureau.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) hosted the Bahraini and Jordanian monarchs, King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa and King Abdullah II, at a trilateral summit on 18 November. The three leaders discussed potential co-operation in security affairs, healthcare and food, as well as ways to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

France is facing criticism and threats of radical action around the Gulf and wider Islamic world after comments by President Emmanuel Macron that his government was determined to fight ‘Islamist separatism’ within parts of the Muslim community. There have been a number of attacks, including the stabbing of a security guard at France’s Jeddah consulate on 29 October.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Riyadh on 10 March – on a whistle-stop tour of three Gulf monarchies – provided an opportunity for his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal Bin Farhan to reaffirm that the Opec+ heavyweights were in alignment. This was an implicit rebuff to reports of significant differences over oil policy, as Moscow has sought bigger quotas for its crude while Riyadh takes the strain with output cuts. Prince Faisal assured a press briefing that “we and Russia would like an oil price which is fair to consumers and to producers.”