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Capable and efficient, but possibly over-reliant on traditional manoeuvres to maintain his hold on the political arena, Kuwait’s new Emir may have failed to read the mood of a country where exasperation at corruption has become widespread and campaigning is being reinvigorated by a more politicised youth.

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Optimistic health bulletins are not enough to dispel questions about Saudi Arabia’s long-term future. GSN examines the political and security aspects surrounding what many believe is King Fahd’s final illness.

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The drama affecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is not quite yet a full-blown crisis – characterised as it is by plausible deniability for Iran on attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman and dubious claims on the legality of other vessels seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). It does though represent a serious foreign policy dilemma for the newly-installed government of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, at a time when the British authorities already have an over-full agenda trying to avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union (EU) on 31 October.

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Anxious to avoid the sort of humanitarian disaster and corruption now associated with sanctions against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the ‘international community’ must find alternative ways of stepping up the pressure on Tehran and Damascus. But no one is rushing to early action.

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The execution of 47 Islamist militants the authorities had linked to terrorism was filled with symbolism: for Riyadh it marked the kingdom’s determination to show zero tolerance of terrorism and extremist Sunni or Shia takfiri (deviant) ideology; in Iran it was seen as yet another provocation against the region’s Shiite populations, leading radicals to invade Saudi legations in Tehran and Mashhad. A majority of those who were executed at 12 locations on 2 January (45 Saudis, an Egyptian and a Chadian) had been convicted of involvement with Al-Qaeda, but four were Shia activists including dissident cleric Sheikh Nimr Baqir Al- Nimr, now elevated to martyr status in the Shiite pantheon.

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The Public Prosecution Office has vowed to take “all relevant legal measures” against anyone who helps to organise tribal meetings and gatherings in Oman, or who promotes such events on social media, in what looks to be the latest sign of a clampdown on the sultanate’s (already heavily circumscribed) political arena.

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Manama has witnessed Jasmine Revolution-inspired demonstrations calling for political reform. The fervour of opposition has spread to many Gulf states, where aged leaders are being challenged by their youthful populations

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The standoff between Qatar and its GCC-3 rivals Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE seems intractable more than a year after the embargo began, with new fronts in the dispute steadily opening up in other nearby regions. The battle for diplomatic influence and control of strategic assets in the Horn of Africa – enlivened by the UAE’s desire for military bases close to the Yemen conflict (GSN 1,055/6) – has been one notable arena. Libya has been a theatre of activity for Gulf and other regional players, notably Turkey, since the 2011 revolution that overthrew the late dictator Muammar Qadhafi. Recent manoeuvres involving Qatar and the UAE fit into what is becoming a familiar pattern.

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The fall of Mosul to jihadists from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS) on 10 June has sent shockwaves through the region and beyond. As the Sunni insurgents advanced from their strongholds in Al-Anbar, the Iraqi army seemed to melt away, allowing ISIL to extend its gains in the north, the Kurds to step into the vacuum in their coveted Kirkuk, and militias to proliferate on both sides of the Sunni/Shiite divide. Within days, the US said it was contemplating air strikes, as Iraq lunged back into deep sectarian conflict. At the time of writing, militants from ISIL controlled a significant number of towns in Nineveh, Salahaddin and northern Diyala, including Saddam Hussein’s home town of Tikrit and Tal Afar.

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As the dust settles after the successful Kurdish effort to liberate the northern Iraqi city of Sinjar (see page Defence and security), all eyes are on the two capitals of Islamic State (IS, or Daesh), which are connected by Highway 47, the main IS supply route that passes through the liberated city.

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The relationship between Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) and Dubai Ruler, federal Vice President and prime minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) is inevitably complex, with many of its working parts hidden from public view and shielded by a cloak of lèse-majesté. Ties that have bonded the two leaders in creating in the emirates a global pole of commercial achievement and influence have long played a positive role in the region.

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Most Iranians argue their right to have nuclear power but far fewer relish another period of international isolation. In seeking to manage the nuclear crisis while retaining credibility at home, Iran’s divided leadership is giving off conflicting signals – reflecting deep factional differences that could project Tehran farther down the path towards a disastrous confrontation.

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Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) announcements on defence co-operation are usually met with considerable scepticism. Not without good reason, for in more than 30 years of talk, there has been only limited progress towards a collective defence force capable of deterring external threats. But the 11 December announcement that GCC rulers had agreed to set up a unified military command, and assigned the Joint Defence Council to take the necessary measures for implementation (GSN 960/6), may prove different.

Issue 1000 - 18 September 2015

Sharjah’s Al-Qasimi take on a mix of roles

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The Al-Qasimi family has old origins, especially compared to some of the region’s younger ruling families. They are part of the Qawasim tribe, a leading sub-section of the widespread Sunni Huwalah. The Huwalah migrated between Persia and Arabia, and produced other well-known families, such as the famous Qatari merchants the Darwish. Members of the Qawasim are a key base of support for the Al-Qasimi.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Widening their scope of operations, Somali pirates are posing an ever greater challenge to regional governments. While energy producers are rethinking their export strategies, governments are concerned that the Horn of Africa’s instability will encroach on the Gulf region’s southern flank. Yemen is especially vulnerable as the collapse of export revenues piles further pressure on President Saleh. GSN analyses developments in the Gulf of Aden, Somalia and Yemen, and talks exclusively to the Southern Movement’s new figurehead Ali Salem Al-Baydh.