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Talks brokered by United Nations special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed are scheduled for 15 December, most probably at a location just outside Geneva, after President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and Houthi rebels reached a tentative agreement to discuss the conflict; it may include a ceasefire that would ease pressure on traumatised populations. But levels of violence remain alarmingly high, from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) and other Islamist groups, the Houthis and their General People’s Congress (GPC) allies, and the Saudi-led coalition, which is not only bombing but also building up ground forces, with some allies suggesting an assault on Sanaa could yet follow (GSN 1,004/1).

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With the summer heat in full force, King Salman Bin Abdelaziz opted for an unusual place to take a break: the yet-to-be-built city of Neom in the kingdom’s north-west corner, abutting Egypt and Jordan, is his chosen destination. Eschewing his usual break in Tangier, Morocco, Salman arrived at the site on 30 July to “spend some time in rest and recreation”, the official statement said. The monarch chaired a session of the cabinet the following day, providing symbolic confirmation of Neom’s incorporation into the new Saudi Arabia being crafted by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and his teams of advisors.

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The Jaber/Salem alternating succession has apparently been consigned to history by the new head of state, but GSN’s soundings of informed opinion in Kuwait suggest it is Sheikh Sabah’s choice of prime minister, sticking with an older generation, that is provoking the most criticism.

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Protesters call for widespread demonstrations on 14 February, undeterred by continuing clashes with riot police; rights groups say little has changed since the completion of an official inquiry into last year’s violence

Issue 981 - 13 November 2014

Sultan Qaboos to miss Oman National Day

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Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said will not be in Oman for the national holiday to mark his 74th birthday on 18 November. In the absence of official detail about the medical condition which has kept him away from home for more than four months, much significance had been placed on whether or not he would return for the National Day, when he usually oversees a military parade in Muscat; the announcement by a frail-looking Qaboos that he would not come, in a 5 November televised address, has been widely read as a bad sign. “It has been the Almighty’s divine will that the anniversary coincides with a time when we are out of the country, for reasons which you know,” the sultan read from a statement. “Praise be to the Almighty, for he has realised good results for us, that require us to proceed with the medical programme in the period which follows.”

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Qatari notables are lining up to sit in the new parliament, after elections, probably to be held in 2005. As civil society gains momentum, can this tiny emirate provide a model for locally-inspired political development?

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The institutionalised use of illicit payments as a marketing tool is revealed in documents seen by GSN that describe business practices at one of the most important Bahrain-based industrial companies.

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President Bush has left ‘all options open’ in the standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and European governments are venting their frustration over Tehran’s approach – but a long period of attrition, rather than any hot war, beckons. Sanctions may eventually beckon, but first more “messy, dirty, slug-it-out diplomacy” beckons.

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Confronted with another ratcheting up of international and regional pressure, Tehran has a number of proxy conflicts in which it can make life uncomfortable for its enemies – and President Ahmadinejad and his allies seem determined to flex their muscles over neighbouring Iraq as the US prepares for its end-year military withdrawal

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Since coming to power in June 2013, Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani has seemed determined to lead a traditional rentier state into the 21st century amid a complex regional security environment and declining hydrocarbons revenue. He has done so by ditching the approach of ‘Father Emir’ Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani, purging many of the old guard and creating far stronger oversight mechanisms to control ministers and their spending. The emir’s approach is a case study for cutting government spending but also in consolidating control by centralising power.

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Both parties have yet to deny or confirm the incident, but a reported clash between Saudi and Emirati patrol boats has attracted much media attention and highlighted the potential for friction among GCC allies that has provoked renewed fears for Gulf security

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The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is not expected to formally declare independence any time soon, following President Masoud Barzani’s referendum on 25 September – the result is technically non-binding and is the subject of a federal Supreme Court action on its constitutionality. Close observers further told GSN that in any case they believed the KRG had given private assurances to the United States, Iran and other major players that it will not issue a formal declaration of nationhood.

Issue 1000 - 24 September 2015

Ras Al-Khaimah: Al Qasimi family tree

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Following the death in 2010 of Sheikh Saqr Bin Mohammed Al-Qasimi, who had ruled the emirate since 1948, the Al-Qasimi of Ras Al- haimah (RAK) have apparently united around his successor Sheikh Saud, in a leadership where the family dominates most key positions.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Questions about the health of the elderly rulers of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have become central issues in recent days, in the wake of both men being hospitalised and undergoing surgery. Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah is expected to spend some time recuperating in the United States, at the very least slowing down his important role as a regional peacemaker

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The death of Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al- Sabah in the early hours of 29 September marked the end of an era for Kuwait and the wider region. Born in 1929, the 91-year-old was Kuwait’s 15th emir and ruled for over 14 years, since January 2006.