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The pool of potential successors to Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said is relatively small, due to the size of the ruling family, and succession laws which state the sultan must be a male descendant of Sultan Turki Bin Said and have Omani parents. The Al-Said have often married outside of Oman, discounting many of Qaboos’ relations (see main story and family tree). Three of Qaboos’ cousins – Assad, Haitham and Shihab Bin Tariq – are seen as the most likely to succeed him; a few other names are occasionally mentioned.

Back in April, with relations between Qatar and then Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi looking strong, Qatar agreed to supply between 18 and 24 LNG cargoes to Egypt, which desperately needed gas to fulfill supply contracts and meet summer domestic demand. But disagreements over pricing saw the number of cargoes fall to 13 and, by mid to late August, reports started to surface that negotiations might be on hold. Qatar has honoured a separate promise, made by Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani in June (when he was still heir apparent), to send five free tankers of LNG to help Egypt negotiate the hot summer months. Four tankers left Ras Laffan in August, and the fifth, according to the Qatar state news agency, was due to be loaded in September. But on 10 September, Qatargas confirmed to GSN and its sister publication African Energy that no negotiations were under way for the delivery of further cargoes.

Senior military figures from Kuwait and the UAE visited Khartoum in early February for talks on defence co-operation. First there was UAE chief-of-staff Lieutenant General Hamad Mohammed Thani Al-Rumaithi, who met President Oman Al-Bashir, defence minister Lieutenant General Awad Mohammad Ahmad and others. While there he was awarded the Al Neelain Order, first class.

The United States has criticised the French government’s decision to release Jalal Rohollahnejad on 20 March, despite the Iranian national being the subject of a US extradition request. In a strongly worded statement issued on 22 March, State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said the US “deeply regrets France’s unilateral decision” and said it was “regrettable… that France failed to uphold its treaty obligations and prevented justice from being pursued.” The US accuses Rohollahnejad of exporting equipment with military applications to Iran, in violation of US sanctions.

New owner of Malaga football club

Highlighting the Obama administration’s growing engagement with Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states, secretary of state Hillary Clinton was to visit

Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932; it became a republic in 1958. Saddam Hussein’s presidency was marked by conflict, including the 1980-88 war with Iran, the 1991 Gulf war and the US-led occupation in 2003, which removed the Baathist regime. Thirteen years after Saddam’s demise, Iraq has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk grade was moved from D to E, reflecting continuing levels of violence.

The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) Yemen Forum head Ginny Hill told a 7 February meeting on ‘Egypt and the road ahead’ that turmoil in Sanaa reflected a battle for control of the capital between the ruling

Germany extradited Iranian diplomat Asadollah Assadi to Belgium on 9 October, to face questioning about an alleged Iranian plot to bomb a rally by opposition group the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) near Paris on 30 June. NCRI is deemed a terrorist organisation by Tehran and is closely linked to the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) dissident group led by Maryam Rajavi, which advocates the violent overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Indexing firm FTSE Russell is to include the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in its FTSE Emerging index next year, in a widely-anticipated change announced on 28 March. The decision is an important success for Riyadh, which has made a number of reforms since 2015 to make the Tadawul more attractive to international investors. Saudi stocks will be included into the index over five stages, from March to December 2019, eventually accounting for around 2.7% of the total index.

Few can feel comfortable in a region where Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries will need to borrow some $148bn next year to cover their budget shortfalls, as Moody’s Investors Service predicted in a report issued on 5 December. Fiscal deficits will not be closed any time soon, not least because new revenue generators like the value added tax (VAT) due to be introduced in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in January are often matched by new spending commitments to ensure social and political stability is maintained

Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani went on a three-country tour from 22-25 February, calling in on King Abdullah II of Jordan and two North African presidents elected in recent months, Kaïs Saïed of Tunisia and Abdelmadjid Tebboune of Algeria. The visit to Amman helped to cement the improving relations, which had been undermined when Jordan initially sided with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the boycott of Qatar in June 2017; steadily warming ties since have included the creation of 10,000 jobs for Jordanians announced in August 2018 and an exchange of ambassadors last year.

A pincer movement is under way to eventually take the jewel in IS’s Iraqi crown, Mosul, and it will be supported by more than 500 additional US troops. Iraqi troops, with the usual US-led coalition air support, on 9 July captured Qayara airbase (‘Q-West’), 40 miles from Mosul, which will be used as a staging ground for operations to retake the city. IS still occupies the nearby town of Qayara.

Rights activist Nabeel Rajab has been jailed for three months, after being convicted of insulting people from Muharraq on Twitter. The state news agency said Rajab appeared before the public prosecution on 9 July.

Following considerable pressure from southern oil-producing states, the Iraqi cabinet has backtracked on a cut in the so-called petrodollar payment. On 28 January, the cabinet said the government would pay $5/bbl of oil, originally agreed in a mid-2013 law, rather than the $1/bbl stipulated in the draft 2014 budget. The move will cost the government more than $4bn, heaping further spending on a budget that has already ballooned since 2013. It is rare for Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki to reverse his course, although perhaps not surprising in an election year.