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Yemen is in a fragile state. The regime, headed by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, is besieged on several fronts, with a Houthi rebellion in the north, a secession movement in the south, and increased jihadi activity by groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) pushing the country on a downward trajectory.

The Al-Khalifa came to power in 1783, taking its authority from the family’s conquest of the archipelago from the Persian empire. Britain, interested in maritime trade routes, entered into an alliance with the Al- Khalifa in 1820 and helped secure its rule; it was not until 1971 that Bahrain declared independence. A new constitution provided for a fully elected parliament, formed in 1973, but that was disbanded in 1975 after it fell out with the ruler. A partially elected body was reinstated in the 2002 constitution, but power lies primarily with the executive, and the preponderance of Al-Khalifa in key positions means lines between state and ruling family are very blurred.

The Al-Khalifa family came to power in 1783, driving the Persian empire from the archipelago. The British empire, interested in maritime trade routes, entered into an alliance with the Al-Khalifa in 1820; only in 1971 did Bahrain declare independence. A new constitution provided for a fully elected parliament, which was formed in 1973 but disbanded in 1975 after it fell out with the ruler; after a period of repressive rule, a partially elected body was reinstated in the 2002 constitution. However, in a polity where the Sunni royal family rules over a majority Shiite population, power lies primarily with the executive; the preponderance of Al-Khalifa in key positions blurs lines between the state and ruling family. King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa succeeded his father in 1999 and declared himself king of a constitutional monarchy in 2002.

Confronted by multiple humanitarian and security crises, Yemen is on the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F). The transition period after president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power (after 33 years) in February 2012 never delivered on promises of democracy and stability. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi inherited a mess of competing and often violent factions, which he failed to harness: southern secessionists continue to resist Sanaa’s rule, jihadist groups are embedded around the country, old guard remnants refuse to relinquish power and the Houthi movement (northern Zaidis allied with a resurgent Saleh) captured Sanaa in September 2014.

Since the granting of universal suffrage in 2003, all adults are eligible to vote and women have the right to seek public office. But civil liberties remain constrained. Media freedoms are heavily restricted, there is limited news flow from the country and the government reserves the right to censor.

The Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) was officially set up on 25 May 1981 in Abu Dhabi, when the leaders of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed to establish a council whose aims were to ‘achieve unity’, formulate ‘similar regulations’ in fields including economics, customs, commerce, communications, education and culture, and to stimulate scientific and technological progress. In part founded as a reaction to the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war, divisions and power imbalances within the council have led to the GCC being largely unproductive over the first three decades of its existence, despite high hopes and rhetoric.

After a year of turbulence and widespread civil unrest following disputed presidential elections, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government has consolidated its position with the support of the president’s powerful backer, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran).

Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Oman’s sultan, who deposed his father in a bloodless coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite to rule, rather than his relatively small family. Qaboos was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; his successor is expected to emerge from a small pool of family members. Power remains strongly centralised, but there has been some modernisation.

Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven vibrant, and Kuwaiti politics the most participatory in the Gulf. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been the constant friction between the elected parliament and the appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state. Kuwait’s media is one of the most outspoken in the region but, since 2011, the government has cracked down on criticism of Islam or of the ruling family. The downward trend arrow on Kuwait’s political risk grade reflects the potential for political instability as members of the ruling family jostle for position; the emir is in his mid-eighties and, while his half-brother Nawaf is expected to succeed him, there is uncertainty about where power will go next. Externally, there have been serious crises with Iraq in the 1970s, Iran in the 1980s and the occupation by Iraq in 1990. Emir Sabah sometimes plays a mediating role within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and, in the past year, has shown himself willing to rebuild ties with Iran.

The opposition wrote itself out of the Kuwaiti parliament by boycotting December’s elections, and as a result there has been less tension between parliament and government. The assembly has managed to pass a number of bills and motions, approving a much-delayed draft law to privatise Kuwait Airways, and awarding the contract for the Az-Zour North independent water and power project – the first contract since the Partnerships Technical Bureau was established in 2008. But while the opposition has been less vocal in recent months, frustrations remain liable to erupt.

ISLAMIC STATE: The main news story of 2014 – not just for Iraq, but for the region – was the rapid advance of extremist Sunnis from the IS militant group, who, with the help of various local Sunni groups and former Baathists, moved beyond their strongholds in Al-Anbar and took Mosul and large parts of northern Iraq in June, and declared a caliphate across the territories they hold in Syria and Iraq. The US launched an air campaign (Operation Inherent Resolve) against IS targets in August, and has since been joined by a number of other nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, though Abadi has said Baghdad does not want any foreign land intervention. Months of airstrikes and army, Peshmerga and Shiite militia efforts have contained IS and prevented the group reaching the capital, but the jihadists retain considerable territory in Al-Anbar and Salahaddin. On 1 March, Iraq’s armed forces (who melted away in the face of IS’ rapid advance), boosted by Shiite militia, began a major offensive north of Baghdad, hoping to retake the town of Tikrit and the surrounding province of Salahaddin. According to Reuters, a US official said in February that an operation to retake Mosul could start as early as April, but others suggest it is more likely to wait until the autumn.

Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven more vibrant than expected, and Kuwait has often been held up as a beacon for democratisation in the region.

The UAE has a reputation as one of the most stable countries in the region since it was formed in 1971. But regional unrest and the authorities’ apparent stick and carrot approach should cause observers to question the medium to long-term sustainability of the federation’s current political arrangements.

Opposition is not well tolerated, and the prime minister has again been grilled by MPs, this time over the heavy-handed police crackdown on a rally in December that left five people injured. The protest was against a ‘government plot’ to amend the constitution, and lift the parliamentary immunity of maverick Islamist Faisal Al-Muslim

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced on 30 April that it had chosen Royal Dutch Shell as partner in a 30-year joint venture (JV) to develop the Bab sour gas fields in Abu Dhabi, whose value is estimated at around $10bn. Shell will hold a 40% stake in the JV, with Adnoc holding the remainder.