Search results

When United States President-elect Joe Biden begins to receive official intelligence briefings, one of the more complex issues he and his team will have to grapple with is fashioning a new working relationship with Turkey. Despite its struggling domestic economy, Ankara is testing its appetite for military conflict on ever more fronts, placing heavy pressure on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to rebuild what critics and admirers alike have come to see as his version of the Ottomans’ Sublime Porte, on foundations underpinned by Al-Ikhwan Al-Muslimeen (Muslim Brotherhood or MB) ideology.

The current Turkish deployment to Qatar is not the first. In 1872, 100 Turkish troops and field guns were landed in Doha, launching a military presence that was to remain for 44 years. Some years ago, GSN is told, a number of soldiers’ bodies were discovered on wasteland behind Doha Fort, a former Ottoman garrison. Local historians say the death rate from disease among Ottoman soldiers was appallingly high, at around 40%; scurvy was rife among troops who didn’t even have a vegetable garden to tend until 1910.

Transport slump: Delegates at the Arab Air Carriers’ Organisation (AACO) virtual annual general meeting on 3 November were told it could take between four and seven years for air travel in the region to return to 2019 levels. Passenger traffic is forecast to decline more than 70% this year.

The British Embassy in Baghdad has issued a call for proposals for a two- to three-year project, to a maximum budget of £3m ($4m) starting in early 2021 under its Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) “to support Iraq to develop a more inclusive political system and to support broadened participation in political processes and decision-making”.

Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan attended 2 December celebrations for the 49th UAE National Day.

GSN’s year-end Perspective/Agenda feature provides a look back – and forwards – at key events across the region in 2020-21. It gives an opportunity to update the Risk Grades included with each of our regular Risk management reports. After another year of tragedy, Yemen is effectively a failed state (rated F6, the bottom political and financial grades). Qatar has shown itself to be robust in the face of its neighbours’ boycott, its finances warranting an upgrade to 1, putting it on a par with the UAE. Iraq’s political standoffs and financial woes remain deeply troubling, but the situation is improving rather than deteriorating and the prospect of higher oil prices next year should help further; it has been upgraded from E5↑ to D4↓. Oman’s fiscal challenges continue to mount, prompting a downgrade of its economic rating to 3. 

The Al-Salem branch of Kuwait’s ruling Al-Sabah family is gaining in influence once again, having been given two key cabinet posts by prime minister Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah in December, following the National Assembly (parliament) elections.

Federal Vice President and prime minister, and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) officially joined the TikTok social media network on 19 December.

The Royal Saudi Naval Force (RSNF) inducted its new Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopters into its fleet at a late December ceremony, overseen by RSNF commander Lieutenant General Fahd Bin Abdullah Al-Ghufaili and Eastern Fleet deputy commander Rear Admiral Ahmed Al-Buraikan.

Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – D↓4↓ Overview Politics: Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions. The 2005 constitution gave the KRI an identity distinct from Iraq, as a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement outlined how power would be shared. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has long protested these agreements’ lack of implementation.

Israel's chargé d'affaires to Bahrain Itay Tagner has held initial meetings with officials following his appointment. On 13 January, Tagner held talks with Ministry of Foreign Affairs undersecretary for international affairs Sheikh Abdullah Bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa.

Legendary racehorse owner and businessman Prince Khalid Bin Abdullah Bin Abdulrahman died, aged 85, on 12 January. He became interested in horse racing in the 1950s, but didn’t begin buying horses until the mid-1970s. According to specialist website bloodhorse.com, the prince will be long remembered for his “deep commitment to breeding world-class thoroughbreds, his competitive spirit at the races, his attention to detail, and for the quiet and dignified manner in which he treated everyone around him.”

The Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) has started registering civilian volunteers to join a reserve force. The first recruitment phase was announced on 11 January and is open to Bahraini male relatives of BDF or National Guard members aged between 18 and 55 (the limit doesn’t apply to technicians or specialists).

Royal Navy frigate HMS Montrose has undergone a four-week programme of repairs and performance improvements at Duqm Naval Dockyard, at a cost of some £506,000 ($690,000), British junior defence minister Jeremy Quin said in an answer to a written parliamentary question on 14 January.

In one of its last decisions on the region, the Trump administration on 15 January designated the UAE and Bahrain as “major security partners” of the United States. A White House statement described the move as recognising the “exceptional security partnership” and commitment of both countries to counter extremism in the region.