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Issue 1195 - 22 January 2025

Map of military strikes on Iraq

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Revised January 2025, this map illustrates the locations of attacks on Iraq since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, including those by Iraqi groups US attacks on Popular Mobilisation Units and those done by Israeli forces.  The map is available as a PDF file using eps graphics, meaning that there is no loss of resolution as the file is enlarged.

Iraq
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The Gulf’s younger rulers have become more experienced in managing their polities and more pragmatic in delivering big ambitions, as they balance domestic and international relationships and interests. To better understand their actions in 2025 and beyond, GSN takes a deeper dive into the ruling philosophies of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi Arabia | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
Issue 1195 - 17 January 2025

Trump Mk II has an early impact on Gulf

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Incoming United States President Donald Trump has been having a profound influence on events in the Middle East, even before his inauguration on 20 January.

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The issue leads with a look at the Gulf’s younger royals who have taken on greater influence in the decisions and political philosophies of their respective governments. Specifically, the recent ambitious movements made within Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are explored.  GSN also takes a look at Abu Dhabi in this issue’s politics section and how the emirate has moved from a successful campaign in bolstering its commercial and leisure sectors into a focus on military and diplomatic strength. The shakeup of the emirate’s police force is also reported upon in a later defence article.  The Diplomatic Brief section addresses the deal struck between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the Iranian regime for the release of hostages.  Finance and Business coverage includes a look at the Japanese investment conglomerate SBI who have made moves within Saudi Arabia, establishing deals in mid-January.  The Risk Management Reports are on Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudan has taken a recent trip to the UK. GSN explores his diplomatic moves in the context of Trump pressure, elections within the country and border security concerns on both Syrian and Kuwaiti sides.  A following map of Iraq illustrates areas of Defence and diplomatic importance.  The GSN view for issue 1195 focusses on Kuwait wherein what is claimed to be a clamp-down on abuse of the system has left tens of thousands without citizenship.    

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The US Senate began confirmation hearings on incoming US President Donald Trump’s nominees for key roles on 15 January, five days ahead of his inauguration. Among those facing questions was attorney general nominee Pam Bondi, who has previously worked as a lobbyist for the Qatari government. Both Bondi and incoming White House chief of staff Susie Wiles have worked for Tallahassee-based lobbying firm Ballard Partners, which recently opened an office in Riyadh.

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A special ministerial court has given former interior and defence minister Sheikh Talal Al-Khaled a 14-year jail term, a $65m fine and ordered him to repay $32m embezzled from the ministries he headed up between 2022 and 2024.

Kuwait
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A lower court’s verdict has been endorsed by the Court of Cassation, sentencing Sheikh Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah to death for the murder of Abdelaziz Al-Zaatari.

Kuwait
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Kuwait border: Relations also remain strained on Iraq’s southern frontier, where the joint maritime border remains only partially agreed. On 13 December, Kuwait and the US issued a fresh call on Baghdad to agree to the frontier’s demarcation beyond the currently agreed limit, set by boundary marker 162. They made the call following the sixth round of the Kuwait-US Strategic Dialogue, which was held virtually on 9-11 December. They also called on Iraq to stick to a 2012 agreement to regulate maritime navigation in the Khor Abdullah waterway, which the Iraqi Constitutional Court annulled in 2023.

Iraq
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Almost 30,000 Kuwaitis have lost their citizenship over the past five months, including more than 10,000 people in the opening weeks of January. The policy is being run by interior minister Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah, with an opaque decision-making process that appears designed to stifle critics as much as address alleged problems around fraud.

Kuwait
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Qatar and Saudi Arabia have most active in trying to develop ties with the new Syrian leadership, with a flurry of meetings, aid and technical assistance, accompanied by wariness of the potential for further instability in the brave new world after Bashar Al-Assad.

Saudi Arabia | Qatar | Syria
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President Barzani health scare: The office of President Nechirvan Barzani was forced to issue a statement on 10 December denying the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) leader had been suffering from ill health, amid rumours on social media of a health scare during his visit to Paris to attend the reopening of Notre Dame cathedral on 7 December. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) spokesperson Dilshad Shahab said such rumours were “unfounded” and “entirely false”.

Iraq
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Few doubt the UAE has successfully reinforced its position as a major global business and leisure hub by introducing ever more regulations and institutions to provide an accommodating investment climate. Abu Dhabi once left it to commercial hub Dubai to attract foreign attention, but the wealthy emirate is now more assertive on the business front, while also building up its military strength and regional power projection under President Mohammed Bin Zayed and his Bani Fatima brothers.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Under Emir Sheikh Tamim, Doha has pulled back from the overt foreign interventions that typified his father’s rule, preferring to make itself more useful as an international mediator – with another apparent triumph in negotiating the new Gaza ceasefire – while keeping regional rivals onside and building up its global-scale gas industry to leave it as one of the world’s wealthiest jurisdictions for decades to come.

Qatar | Israel
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In the latest evidence that Tehran’s ‘hostage diplomacy’ is delivering results, an Iranian national was released from an Italian jail before he could be extradited to the US on charges of illegally supplying drone technology to Iran. Relations with France and Switzerland are also strained.

Iran
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Adnoc Gas, now under new chief executive Fatima Al-Nuaimi, broke ground at Ruwais in November and has since awarded contracts for an LNG pre-conditioning plant, compression facilities and pipelines.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)