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Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko visited Doha in late February to meet his counterpart Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, in the latest sign that Gulf leaders have no interest in following western countries’ efforts to isolate the autocratic regime in Minsk over its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

An International Institute for Strategic Studies report points to a new missile base being developed near Al-Nabhaniyah, north-west of Riyadh, along with construction work at other Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force sites. China remains a key partner in developing the Saudi missile programme, as it has been over the past four decades.

Kuwaiti soldiers Major Sergeant Ahmed Farhan Harat and Sergeant Musaad Dhahi Saleh were killed during the Desert Observer 4 live shooting exercise conducted alongside US forces.

The initial days of Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House seemed to pick up where his first term left off, with big investments promises by Gulf states to secure the president’s favour. However, deal-making has been quickly overtaken by more strategic concerns and grandiose political posturing, with suggestions the US could force Gaza’s population to move to Jordan, Egypt or even Saudi Arabia, while Trump has renewed his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran, hinting darkly that Washington could support Israel ‘bombing the hell out of them’.

Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani was the first head of state to visit post-Assad Damascus, when the Qatari leader flew into the Syrian capital on 30 January, after which President Ahmed Al-Sharaa chose Riyadh for his first overseas trip. Meanwhile Iranian military commanders have emerged from licking their wounds after the Assad regime’s defeat to claim they are now rebuilding resistance cells in their former client state.

The visit by four vessels from the IRGC Navy and the regular Iranian Navy to a port in Sharjah in early February was the first of its kind and is part of a planned exchange of naval visits. It is part of Iran’s efforts to bolster its diplomatic relations with its neighbours and comes as a time when it is also strengthening its domestic defences against potential attacks.

Recent bilateral talks on border security, water resources and the 5m Afghans living in Iran point to a more positive atmosphere between the neighbours – prompting speculation that Tehran could soon recognise the Taliban government. It comes at a time when other Gulf states have been recalibrating their relations with the isolated regime.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia have most active in trying to develop ties with the new Syrian leadership, with a flurry of meetings, aid and technical assistance, accompanied by wariness of the potential for further instability in the brave new world after Bashar Al-Assad.

Under Emir Sheikh Tamim, Doha has pulled back from the overt foreign interventions that typified his father’s rule, preferring to make itself more useful as an international mediator – with another apparent triumph in negotiating the new Gaza ceasefire – while keeping regional rivals onside and building up its global-scale gas industry to leave it as one of the world’s wealthiest jurisdictions for decades to come.

The dramatic end to Bashir Al-Assad’s rule has created another crisis for Iran’s regional strategy and is an unnerving moment for Gulf monarchies which, in the name of ‘stability’, had been rebuilding ties with a Damascus regime that seemed to have survived a decade-plus of civil war. Diplomatic strategies will now have to be hastily redrawn, with an initial focus on ensuring Syria does not slide further into turmoil.

Iran’s relationship with United Nation’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and with western powers has soured markedly in recent weeks, in the wake of a visit to Tehran by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on 14 November. Grossi had been pushing for greater access to Iran by IAEA inspectors and to discuss uranium traces found at a number of sites around the country, but appeared to make little or no progress.

The days of Ankara focusing its attention in the GCC solely on Qatar are now firmly in the past, as recent agreements point to Türkiye steadily growing its military and commercial links with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, as well as with Doha.

Tehran has launched a housing development on Abu Musa and floated plans for tourism developments on the island, which is part of a trio of islands controlled by Iran but claimed by the UAE. On nearby Greater Tunb, a power plant has also been brought back online after a four-year hiatus.

The EU has offered support to the latest Saudi effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, promising to hold a summit in Brussels later this month for the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. At the first EU-GCC summit, held in mid-October, the Europeans also agreed to revive discussions on a trade deal, some 16 years after talks were suspended due to differences over human rights.

The barrage of up to 200 ballistic missiles Tehran fired at Israel on 1 October was the latest in a series of escalatory steps taken by Israel and Iran, as a conflict that began in Gaza a year ago threatens to spread across the region. Arab Gulf states have largely been bystanders to the events, but could yet fulfil important roles – by providing mediation, influencing allies and helping to stabilise energy markets.