Search results

Allies and enemies are anxiously waiting to see if the Israeli government will escalate regional conflict further after more than 300 projectiles were fired from Iran at Israel on 13-14 April in Tehran’s retaliation to the Israeli strike that killed IRGC commanders in Damascus. Most of the drones and missiles were shot down, but a few hit Israeli military bases, causing limited damage.

Seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp were killed when missiles levelled the consular office next to Iran’s embassy in the Syrian capital. While other IRGC officers have been killed by Israeli strikes in Syria in recent months, this attack appears the most serious yet.

The IRGC Navy has launched long-range ballistic missiles from one of its ships for the first time, as it continues to flex its muscle in the face of heightened tensions with the United States, but an Iranian spy ship that was thought to have been working closely with Yemen’s Houthis appears to have been sidelined after a US cyberattack.

Four Emirati soldiers and one Bahraini officer were killed in an attack on a military base in Mogadishu on 10 February. They had been training the Somali Armed Forces.

The European Union has sanctioned two UAE-based companies over commercial and military ties to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, while a leaked United Nations expert report says evidence of UAE arms supplies to the rebel RSF are ‘credible’.

Efforts to bring the Gaza conflict to an end continue, with little apparent prospect of short-term success. Arab states are pushing for Israel to end its bombardment but there is just as much focus on trying to ensure the war doesn’t escalate into a regional conflagration. A key challenge is the Houthis’ campaign against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which Washington and allies are struggling to counter despite a major attack on targets in Yemen on 12 January.

Kerman blast: Around 100 people were killed and nearly 300 injured in two explosions at a cemetery in the southern city of Kerman on 3 January, at an event marking the fourth anniversary of IRGC Quds force leader Qasem Soleimani’s death in a United States drone strike.

A United States-led taskforce has been launched to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea, after Houthi rebels launched more than 100 drone and ballistic missile attacks over the past month. However, most Gulf countries have declined to join, with just Bahrain signing up to date.

Islamic Republic of Iran Armed Forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri held a phone call with Saudi  defence minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman on 30 November, which Iranian media described as the first step towards developing bilateral defence ties.

Qatar has said it is continuing to push for a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, after a week-long ‘humanitarian pause’ it helped to foster ended on 1 December. The resumption of fighting has seen Israel launch a major bombardment of southern Gaza and brought renewed condemnation from Gulf governments.

In a major coup for Qatar, Doha has been credited with brokering a four-day truce in Gaza, which was due to come into effect as GSN was going to press, in a deal where Hamas would start freeing its 7 October hostages while Israel releases Palestinian prisoners from its jails. There is still a huge amount of work to do by international partners if a wider peace settlement is to be achieved, but what is clear is that Qatari actors have emerged as international players after years of effort to position Doha as a deal-broker that can be all things to all men.

The usual dizzying number of civil and military contracts were unveiled at the mid-November Dubai Airshow where, included among the 54 deals signed by the UAE government's Tawazun Council, was an air defence order with the unknown Black Diamond company, which GSN's research suggests is an Israeli venture created after Abu Dhabi's Abraham Accord was concluded.

Omani officials told GSN that the failure to achieve a settlement to the Israel/Palestinian conflict was nurturing radicalisation and undermining the prospects for resolving other political problems across the Middle East.

Omani officials appear confident that, despite international diplomatic attention having largely switched to the Gaza conflict, a peace settlement can be achieved soon between the warring factions in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, with all parties now appearing to recognise that ending the civil war is in their overwhelming political interest.

While the United States is further building up its naval projection in the region, Chinese PLA Navy’s ships have continued to make port calls around the Gulf.