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Iraq's Shia feel forgotten. While Western attention focuses on inter-Kurdish clashes in northern Iraq and policy-makers bicker over whether to work with Saddam Hussein, the Shia in the south continue to suffer terribly as the Iraqi army gradually grinds down their resistance.

The defection of Lt General Hussein Kamel and his entourage has presented the Iraqi opposition in exile with an intractable problem. They are overjoyed that the regime's ruling family is slowly devouring itself. But they are worried about welcoming Saddam's henchmen into their ranks.

Analysts in the Gulf are increasingly concerned that Iran and the USA may find themselves in a military conflict as the diplomatic and economic confrontation between Washington and Tehran escalates. The Clinton Administration, which has insisted that Iran change its international behaviour before it can be admitted to the "community of nations", has recently intensified its campaign against the regime. Observers have suggested that policy may be changing from containing the regime to overthrowing it.

The leading Saudi opposition group, the Committee for the Defence of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) has promised to intensify its protest campaign in the coming weeks in the run-up to the Hajj season. The authorities have responded by cracking down on dissident intellectuals. The stage is set for an escalation in the conflict that has raged between the Committee and the authorities for the past two years.

Prince Khaled bin Sultan rose to international prominence during the 1990-91 Gulf War as the Commander of Joint Forces during Desert Shield and Desert Storm. He shared the stage with General Norman Schwarzkopf and represented the Kingdom's desire not to be overwhelmed by its American allies. Soon after Iraq's defeat he resigned from the Saudi armed forces and has since concentrated on his other interests, including overseeing the fortunes of the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat whose revival in 1988 he backed.

Russia has been better known in the Gulf for arming the "radical" states than for lending a sympathetic ear to the GCC. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin's tour of the GCC last month and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev's coup in persuading Baghdad to recognise Kuwait demonstrate a desire by both parties to develop better relations.

The decision of the British government to revoke the asylum of Dr Muhammad aI Masari, spokesman of the Committee for the Defence of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and send him packing to Dominica was greeted with pleasure by Riyadh. Although the Saudi government made no formal comment on the British move, it represents a victory for the quiet campaign that the Kingdom has been waging with increasing intensity in recent months. The extraordinary decision by the British government to deport Masari to a third country, Dominica, sparked furious debate in London but represents merely the logical outcome of Whitehall's ever more frantic efforts to silence opponents of the GCC regimes.

Aside from the Iraqi people, the biggest loser in the Iraqi tragedy has been Jordan. Bound by economic ties and domestic opinion, King Hussein made his fateful decision in 1990 to back Saddam Hussein. Since then he has worked his way back into favour with Western policy makers but has not been entirely forgiven by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The blockade of Iraq added a further burden to the already weak Jordanian economy. Now, as Iraq and the UN continue to discuss implementation of Security Council Resolution 986, it looks as if Jordan will once again be left to bear the costs of Western policy.

It had to come. But did it have to come just when things were looking up? The London-based Saudi opposition group, the Committee for the Defence of Legitimate Rights (CDLR), had until now papered over its internal divisions. Unlike so many exiled Arab opposition groups it had managed to present a united face and give the impression of running a tight ship.

The commercial potentialities and political/cultural threats of satellite TV are widely recognised in the Arab world and in Iran. While entrepreneurs and state broadcasters have been quick to seize the opportunities of the new broadcasting era, governments have responded uneasily to the new technology. This ambivalence is exemplified by the Saudi response to developments. On the one hand, leading Saudi businessmen have invested heavily in pan-Arab satellite TV channels. On the other hand, the government has tried to ban satellite dishes in the Kingdom.

Since Necmettin Eroakan, leader of the Refah (Welfare) Party (RP), became prime minister of Turkey earlier this month he has received a state visit from President Hosni Mubarak and fulsome messages of congratulation from President Hafiz al Asad and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an indication of the importance accorded to developments in Turkey by regional powers.

The 17th GCC Summit, which ended in Doha on 9 December, produced few surprises although it was preceded by dramatic developments. Intense mediation efforts had failed to persuade Bahrain to attend while, paradoxically, Yemen submitted a formal application to join. These two "non-events," much touted in advance of the summit, were of more significance than other policy issues on which there was little change.

The way in which Tehran manages relations with its Arab guests at the Islamic Conference Organisation (ICO) Summit, held from 9-11 December as GSN went to press, will tell us a great deal about the power that President Khatami is able to exercise over Iran’s foreign policy. The crisis over velayet-e faqih that erupted in the runup to the Summit may have indicated that the hardliners will not allow Khatami to have it all his own way.

The new US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, has had a quick lesson on the sensitivities of the American-Saudi relationship. In the wake of blunt criticisms made by the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of the Kingdom's investigation of the al Khobar bombing, Albright rushed to soothe ruffled feathers both in Riyadh and Washington.

To mark the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's 64th National Day on 23 September King Fahd granted an interview to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) in which he pledged to cushion the Saudi people from any economic difficulties and continue to invest in development. His optimistic pledges were no doubt inspired by the recent rally in oil prices but, as even Saudi daily Asharq al Awsat admitted, the Kingdom faces a number of serious challenges in the coming years.