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A month or so ago, when military operations by both sides in the Gulf war were on a minor scale, and the then stalemate seemed unbreakable, there were hopes that the combatants could be persuaded to the conference table to consider a negotiated settlement. The renewed fighting and the wave of retaliatory attacks on civilian centres has rudely shattered those hopes, and the spread and escalation of the war has thrust far into the background any prospects of peace or settlement.

For the first time since the Arab summit conference in Fez, in 1982, there is some reason for the current feeling in the region that the deadlocked Middle East peace process could again begin to move ahead. The proposals recently put forward by President Hosni Mubarak triggered off intense diplomatic activity throughout the area as well as serving to re-focus world attention on the central issues of the Arab-Israeli dispute. Mubarak's proposals, first aired in an interview last month with the 'New York Times', called for a dialogue between the United States and a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation which Egypt would help to form. Then, at a later stage, Israel would be invited to join the talks. Subsequently, in the third stage of the Egyptian plan, an international conference would be held to come to a final settlement.

The United States has recognised 'positive elements' in the Arab Peace Plan, adopted by the Fez Summit meeting in 1981. The communique issued at the end of King Fahd's visit to Washington earlier this month said that the two leaders had agreed to give priority to the Arab-Israel conflict in their talks. The Saudi monarch had expressed his belief that the Arab consensus agreed at the Fez summit provided a just basis for negotiations leading to comprehensive peace.

The temporary suspension of US arms sales to the Arab states is not an embargo and does not signal major changes in America's security relationships with countries in the region, an Administration spokesman has said. Commenting on the postponement, announced earlier in connection with a new government review of US security policies in the Middle East, the spokesman said the review was more in the nature of a 'refinement' of existing policies than a signal of a major shift in direction.

In a few weeks' time, on 20 February to be precise, there will take place in one of the countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council, an event which will, aptly and fairly conclusively, prove the nice flexibility of the six nation group and their capacity to accommodate between them the most substantial differences of domestic political arrangements and systems.

In 1984, the Middle East area fully earned its doubtful distinction as an area of continuing tension and instability. Of the fifty-seven meetings held last year by the United Nations Security Council, fourteen were concerned with the situation in the Middle East and related issues. Five of the meetings were devoted to a complaint by the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) against Iran for attacks on neutral shipping in the Gulf.

The Gulf Co-operation Council Summit in Kuwait last month was not one which produced any very spectacular results. Moreover, its outcome was soon overshadowed by the dramatic events surrounding the hi-jacking of the Kuwaiti aircraft to Tehran. The fifth GCC summit did, however, confirm the solid basis of mutual agreement that exists among the members, and underlined one of the principal merits of the GCC in providing an institutional framework for regular consultation and co-operation among the six countries.

In theory the Middle East has been waiting for the past year, first for a new Israeli government to come into existence, and then for the American presidential elections to take place. Until those two developments were out of the way it was, in the conventional wisdom, impossible for any new initiative to be launched to move the Palestine problem towards a solution.

Next week's Gulf Co-operation Council Summit in Kuwait has about it an air of certitude not often found in the ordering of Arab affairs these days. Even giving due credit to the Council Secretariat, which seems to organise its matters with uncommon efficiency, the preliminaries to the summit have proceeded with calm composure, unmarred by contention or dissent.

In the fifth year of the bitter and costly war with Iran, Iraq today appears in better political and military shape than at any time since its heady but short-lived military successes at the beginning of the conflict. As the results of the recent Iranian limited offensive show, Iraq is now able to cope very effectively with Iranian military efforts and, although remaining essentially on the defensive, no longer seems in danger of suffering the catastrophic military defeat that was once predicted by many outside observers.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the authoritative London based centre, says in its annual review, 'The Military Balance 1984/1985', that the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states have improved their military capabilities and can now form a joint defence infrastructure. However, the Institute's Director, Robert O'Neill, says the GCC is short of sufficient weapons to repulse a major offensive.

King Hussein of Jordan has never lacked for political boldness and courage, although his policies may be criticised for their direction and timing. The decision to restore full diplomatic relations with Egypt is typical of Jordanian readiness to sail ahead into potentially stormy political waters. It had been known for some time that King Hussein had become increasingly impatient with Arab reluctance to allow Egypt's return to the Arab fold when, in the Jordanian view, the ending of Egypt's quarantine was an essential element in the strengthening of the Arab political and diplomatic position.

Arab League Secretary General, Chadli Klibi, said the Arab Summit Conference would probably be postponed until December. The Summit, which was to be held in November in Riyadh, conflicts with meetings of the UN Security Council and the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the Secretary General pointed out.

The Foreign and Defence Ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) hold their joint meeting in Saudi Arabia on 12 September - an important preliminary to the GCC Summit due to be held in Kuwait in November.

The arms deal with the Soviet Union, estimated to be worth some $327m, was signed in Kuwait on 15 August by Admiral Uri Grishin, Head of the General Engineering Department at the Soviet International Economic Relations Department, and Faisal al Daoud, Acting Undersecretary at the Ministry of Defence. The agreement finalised the deal arranged when Minister of Defence, Shaikh Salem al Sabah, visited Moscow in July.