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Iraqi Kurdistan has sold its first cargo of crude oil on the international market, according to industry sources. In defiance of Baghdad, which views such trade as illegal, crude pumped from Genel Energy’sTaqTaq field was trucked into Turkey, and sold via tender for loading in April, according to Reuters.

Iraq
Issue 1024 - 21 October 2016

Risk Management Report: Saudi Arabia

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Politics: Established by King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) in 1932, the kingdom is the giant of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. An absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia is ruled by King Salman Bin Abdelaziz, Ibn Saud’s sixth son to assume the throne. Salman is viewed as slightly more conservative than the late King Abdullah, whose reign saw some reform of education and the judiciary, and the appointment of women to the Shura Council; at 80, Salman has had at least one stroke and is thought to suffer from age-related issues. He has appointed an experienced and competant crown prince, Mohammed Bin Nayef Bin Abdelaziz (MBN), but the prominance of 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has attracted most attention, notably driving economic reform through the ‘Vision 2030’ platform, but also the conflict in Yemen,where a Saudi-led coalition is fighting Houthi rebels it claims are backed by Iran and are allied to ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Saudi Arabia
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Dubai’s economy started to register growth in 2010, with GDP growing by 2.2%, and 4% growth is expected in the current year, though increasing uncertainties over the performance of US and European economies may dampen expectations.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 970 - 23 May 2014

Oman corruption cases

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Oman has been cracking down on corruption in recent months, leading to a string of trials and jail sentences for several prominent businessmen and government officials, the longest of which so far has been 23 years. Many of those convicted are expected to appeal. Court reporting is fairly patchy in Oman, and the large number of investigations makes it hard to unravel exactly who has been on trial and why. GSN has put together a reference table for subscribers, based on reports in Omani and regional media, and international newswires, which documents trials and convictions to date

Oman
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On 14 June, Iran held a presidential election in which Ahmadinejad – who has already served two terms – did not stand.The winner was Hassan Rouhani, the most moderate of the six candidates, who took 50.71% of the vote, way in front of Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who came second with 16.56%. Top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, talked about previously as a front-runner, was third, and Mohsen Rezaie fourth. Rouhani’s victory was something of a surprise.

Iran
Issue 977 - 02 October 2014

Risk Management Report: Qatar

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The Al-Thani family has ruled Qatar since the mid-19th century, its power entrenched at the end of the Ottoman Empire with British recognition of its right to govern. Full independence was declared in 1971 and, officially, Qatar is slowly moving towards democracy. Elections have been held since 1999 for a Central Municipal Council, though voter turnout has halved to around 40%, reflecting disillusionment. The 2003 constitution also approved plans for a 45-member parliament, two thirds elected, but has yet to be implemented.

Qatar
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In the past few months, there have been widespread rumours about Emir Sheikh Hamad’s health, and the possibility that he is preparing to step down and hand power to his son,Tamim. Photographs of the emir with US President Barack Obama inWashington in April showed dramatic weight loss: Doha’s busy rumour mill suggests the 61-year-old – whom expatriates used to call ‘Fat Hamad’ – had a gastric band operation a couple of years ago, but there is also speculation that long-standing kidney problems are causing ill health.

Qatar
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The Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) was set up on 25 May 1981 in Abu Dhabi, when the leaders of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed to establish a council whose aims were to “achieve unity”, formulate “similar regulations” in fields including economics, customs, commerce, communications, education and culture, and to stimulate scientific and technological progress. In part founded as a reaction to the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war, divisions and power imbalances within the council have led to the GCC being largely unproductive over the first three-and-a-half decades of its existence, despite high hopes and rhetoric. The Riyadh-based secretariat comprises a supreme council, a ministerial council and a secretariat general. Each state has one vote on the supreme council, and “substantive matters” require unanimous approval. Its presidency is rotatory, based on alphabetical order.

Issue 984 - 08 January 2015

Risk Management Report: Kuwait

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POLITICS: Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven vibrant, and Kuwaiti politics the most participatory in the Gulf. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been the constant friction between the elected parliament and the appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state.

Kuwait
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Tensions between the autonomous Kurdish region and Baghdad remain one of the most pressing issues for Iraq. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan, which has an identity very distinct from Iraq, is a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the UN, and the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared. But the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has protested at its lack of implementation, and relations with Baghdad are highly acrimonious. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has threatened to hold a referendum on independence, saying federal Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has breached the constitution by assuming too many powers.

Iraq
Issue 1017 - 17 June 2016

Risk Management Report - Saudi Arabia

Free

Politics: Established by King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) in 1932, the kingdom is the giant of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. An absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia is ruled by King Salman Bin Abdelaziz, Ibn Saud’s sixth son to assume the throne. Salman is viewed as slightly more conservative than the late King Abdullah, whose reign saw some reform of education and the judiciary, and the appointment of women to the Shura Council; at 80, Salman has had at least one stroke and is thought to suffer from age-related mental health issues. Balancing this, he has appointed an experienced and competant crown prince, Mohammed Bin Nayef Bin Abdelaziz (MBN); the prominance of 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has attracted most attention for his robust promotion of Saudi interests – notably driving the conflict in Yemen,where it is fighting Houthi rebels it claims are backed by Iran and are allied to ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh – and advocacy of potentially radical economic reform.

Saudi Arabia
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Yemen is in a very fragile state. After 33 years of rule, president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power in February 2012, and the nation entered a transitional period, intended to be two years long and to steer Yemen towards democracy and stability. Saleh’s successor, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has inherited a nation beset by violence and competing factions. A Houthi insurgency in the north, secessionism in the south, a powerful jihadist movement and remnants of the old guard continue to threaten the political process. Hadi has made moves to restructure the military and neutralise potential enemies, but factional fighting in Sanaa continues.

Yemen
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Dubai Group, a subsidiary of Dubai Holding, has revealed $4bn of debt in addition to the $6bn already declared. The group is now looking to restructure all $10bn, of which the original $6bn is owed to banks and $4bn made up of inter-company loans.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 984 - 08 January 2015

Risk Management Report: GCC

Free

GCC: The Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) was set up on 25 May 1981 in Abu Dhabi, when the leaders of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed to establish a council whose aims were to “achieve unity”, formulate “similar regulations” in fields including economics, customs, commerce, communications, education and culture, and to stimulate scientific and technological progress. In part founded as a reaction to the Islamic revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war, divisions and power imbalances within the council have led to the GCC being largely unproductive over the first three-and-a-half decades of its existence, despite high hopes and rhetoric. The Riyadh-based secretariat comprises a supreme council, a ministerial council and a secretariat-general. Each state has one vote on the supreme council, and “substantive matters” require unanimous approval. Its presidency is rotatory, based on alphabetical order.

Free

Tensions between the autonomous Kurdish region and Baghdad remain one of the most pressing issues for Iraq. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan, which has an identity very distinct from Iraq, is a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations, and the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared. But the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has protested at its lack of implementation, and relations with Baghdad are highly acrimonious. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has threatened to hold a referendum on independence, saying federal Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has breached the constitution by assuming too many powers. “The same individual holds the powers of prime minister, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, defence minister, chief of intelligence and interior minister. The central bank may soon be under his purview as well,” he said in 2012.

Iraq