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GSN Risk Grade: B↑1 Recent developments- Doha Forum: Numerous international dignitaries visited the Doha Forum, which ran from 26-27 March at the Doha Sheraton. Among those to attend were...

Ambassador Fahd Bin Mohammed Al-Attiyah presented his credentials to the UK’s Queen Elizabeth II on 23 March. The event was held via video conference, as the British monarch is currently avoiding most in-person engagements due to her frail health.

US President Joe Biden has nominated Timmy Davis as US ambassador to Qatar. Arabic-speaking Davis spent almost a decade in the US Marine Corps before joining the diplomatic service.

Uncertainty surrounds an agreement signed by German economy minister Robert Habeck and Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani for the supply of gas to replace German imports from Russia.

The Turkish TB-2 uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) already has buyers in the Mena region and by proving its worth in Ukraine is likely to find even more.

Qatar’s UrbaCon Trading & Contracting (UCC), one of the Gulf region’s largest contractors by value of work, is negotiating a €908.9m ($1bn) contract with General Electric Company of Libya (Gecol) for the construction and maintenance of a 1,044MW gas-fired emergency power plant in Zliten, on Libya’s Mediterranean coast, midway between the cities of Khoms and Misratah.

Amid their growing distance from western powers, Gulf states have continued to try and maintain a neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis. However, a weakened Russia could lead to the GCC powers stepping up their outreach to the pariah state of President Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria. That engagement has been energetically driven by the UAE, whose foreign affairs and international co-operation minister Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan visited the Syrian capital in November for talks with Assad.

Peace talks between Chad’s warring factions began in Doha on 13 March, two weeks later than originally planned. They involved representatives of the ruling Transitional Military Council (CNT) and numerous armed groups.

UCC has come to dominate Qatar’s construction market since it was registered in Doha just over a decade ago. Middle East Economic Digest in 2021 ranked it as the fourth largest contractor in the Gulf, with $4.7bn of work.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was widely expected, but most Gulf states were slow to make any public statements in response as they sought to avoid taking sides between the US – which remains the region’s most important international player for all its reduced enthusiasm for policing the Gulf – and Russia, which is an important ally in setting oil prices, selling military equipment and providing a model of 21st century autocracy. Amid the muted rhetoric, clear differences have appeared between GCC states.

Given the ambivalent position adopted by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular, questions may be asked about the longevity of some Gulf economic links with Ukraine, which encompass military, energy, agriculture and other ties.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent already strong oil prices spiralling upwards, with a show of Opec+ solidarity that underlines just how close Saudi-Russian relations have become. Oil and gas producers are among the likely big winners, with Gulf governments offered a new path to balance their budgets and build up their financial reserves, but other commercial relations could come under much closer scrutiny.

Iran and Qatar signed a string of bilateral agreements during a recent visit by President Ebrahim Raisi to Doha. It was the first visit by an Iranian president to Doha in 11 years.

Amid reports of a possibly imminent reinstatement of a reworked Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, it is likely that Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon capability may again slow down. While that will be welcomed by its regional foes, military planners’ attention is likely to switch to missiles and other categories of weaponry. GSN assesses the balance of forces and how Iran, Saudi Arabia, other GCC states and Israel are likely to further arm themselves with missile technology.

Other Gulf states have smaller missile inventories, which could be used in any future conflict with Iran. GSN examines the missile capabilities of UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.