Search results

Much recent attention has focused on King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa’s fourth son, Sheikh Nasser Bin Hamad, who – in his mid-30s – is nearly 20 years younger than his half-brother Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad.

The mid-2021 revelations about widespread use of the Pegasus spyware platform, developed by well-connected Israeli company NSO Group, have been followed by claims that Bahrain continues to hack the electronic devices of key opposition and other figures.

With little or no space for opposition politics, Bahraini public life is dominated by the ruling Al-Khalifa family, making dynastic dynamics a key factor in an opaque political environment. Competition between King Hamad’s sons Crown Prince Salman and Sheikh Nasser could shape the island’s future direction. GSN analyses the current balance of power in the ruling family and its relationship to other key GCC leaders

Personally popular with fellow rulers for his relaxed style, but often criticized for flaws in Bahrain’s management and its troubled relations with its majority Shia population, King Hamad Bin Isa Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa has ruled Bahrain for 22 years, first as emir and, since 2002, as its self-declared king.

Amid their growing distance from western powers, Gulf states have continued to try and maintain a neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis. However, a weakened Russia could lead to the GCC powers stepping up their outreach to the pariah state of President Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria. That engagement has been energetically driven by the UAE, whose foreign affairs and international co-operation minister Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan visited the Syrian capital in November for talks with Assad.

King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa was in the UAE in mid-March, following on from his recent trip to Saudi Arabia.

Bahraini Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa held a number of business meetings while in the United States in early March for the Second US-Bahrain Strategic Dialogue.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was widely expected, but most Gulf states were slow to make any public statements in response as they sought to avoid taking sides between the US – which remains the region’s most important international player for all its reduced enthusiasm for policing the Gulf – and Russia, which is an important ally in setting oil prices, selling military equipment and providing a model of 21st century autocracy. Amid the muted rhetoric, clear differences have appeared between GCC states.

Recently appointed US ambassador Steven Bondy has been reprimanded by his hosts after meeting civil society activists. After Bondy presented his credentials to King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa on 9 February, he later met four activists at his residence, the local Delmon Post reported.

The government is hiring financial advisers with a view to selling sell stakes in some of its oil and gas assets. A deal could involve a stock market listing or a private sale.

Amid reports of a possibly imminent reinstatement of a reworked Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, it is likely that Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon capability may again slow down. While that will be welcomed by its regional foes, military planners’ attention is likely to switch to missiles and other categories of weaponry. GSN assesses the balance of forces and how Iran, Saudi Arabia, other GCC states and Israel are likely to further arm themselves with missile technology.

Other Gulf states have smaller missile inventories, which could be used in any future conflict with Iran. GSN examines the missile capabilities of UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.

GSN Risk Grade: C↑3↓ Recent developments Golden visas: Bahrain has followed the UAE and (more recent) Saudi lead by easing its visa rules to entice more investors and skilled immigrants. A new ‘golden residency visa’ programme was announced by the cabinet on 7 February.

Turkey’s rehabilitation among its erstwhile critics in the Gulf is continuing apace. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia and the UAE later in February.

Bahrain and the UAE are facing uncomfortable attention following the extradition of Bahraini national Ahmed Jaafar Mohamed Ali from Serbia on 24 January, which happened despite a European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruling that it should not go ahead. Ali appears to have been flown from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport on board a Bombardier Global 5000 business jet – tail number A6-RJC – owned by Abu Dhabi-based Royal Jet.