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Five country ratification is the first hurdle. Policy and structural detail will have to follow soon if markets are to take the GCC’s monetary union plan seriously.

Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society and Haq, Bahrain’s two largest parliamentary and extra-parliamentary opposition movements, have engaged in renewed talks about a potential joint strategy, as the 2010 elections approach. Haq leader Hassan Mushaima continues to argue that now is not the time to back down over a potential election boycott.

Saudi supertanker (VLCC) Sirius Star, carrying an estimated $100m worth of oil was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Kenya and headed towards the northern Somali coast. Bahrain’s Ebrahim Abdulaal Group of Companies (EAGC) has signed an MoU with London-based H Oil.

King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa’s second son Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa is suing pop star Michael Jackson in London’s Royal Courts of Justice for $7m over alleged breach of contract

Bahrain-Saudi Arabia pipeline shows relations are good. Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) is planning a $2bn expansion of its Sitra refinery. Iran has signed a MoU with Turkey for the development of two phases of its South Pars gas field. International services company Petrofac has been awarded a KD147m ($543m) lump-sum contract by Kuwait Oil Company for a new gas pipeline.

QNB Al-Islami, fully-owned by Qatar National Bank (QNB), has opened its first branch outside Qatar in Sudan. Sharjah Islamic Bank (SIB) says it has suspended mortgage lending for ready properties to individuals. Private, joint-stock Unicorn Investment Bank (UIB) is establishing a new Islamic bank in Bahrain.

Street violence flared in Bahrain during late September and October, leading to another major security hunt for a group of Shia protestors who were allegedly involved in a serious assault on three men. The crowd threw a Molotov cocktail at a car that contained three Bahraini Shia male civilians who escaped with light injuries. Bahraini security insiders told GSN the attackers believed the vehicle carried a Bahraini Secret Intelligence Service (BSIS) surveillance team. Whatever the truth - no completely independent witnesses are yet available - the incident should be seen against the background of growing tension in Bahrain, as the authorities maintain a firm line which leading opposition figures fear will only deepen disenchantment among young Shiite men.

Adnoc signs E&P agreement with Shell; Bahrain invites IOCs for deep onshore gas exploration and signs a memorandum of understanding with Iran for gas supply. Iran state company offers 14 fields for development

Total has signed an agreement with Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) to take a 31% stake in onshore exploration Block 70 in Yemen’s Shabwa governorate. Bahrain-based Energy Alliance Company, which has an interesting set of Saudi and other Arab investors, has become involved in Eritrea.

Family business relationships will be key to the growth of Samena Capital, the latest investment company to set up in Bahrain. Bringing together businessmen and former asset managers from the (Indian) Subcontinent, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (Samena), a new asset management company set up in Bahrain, has attracted particular interest from Omani investors.

The Libyan Investment Authority (LIA)‘s participation in First Energy Bank (FEB), whose emergence is analysed above, is part of a rapidly multiplying network of links between Libya’s fast-changing economy and the established oil economies of the Gulf (GSN 832/12, 815/1). While Libya is still in the process of setting up institutions to take charge of its huge financial reserves

Population growth is a universal feature of the Gulf Co-operation Council region at a time of booming oil-financed expansion, with a surge in construction activity and accelerating demand for services creating an almost insatiable need for labour. The GCC thus continues to suck in foreign workers to meet real present economic needs. This is also the case for some sectors in Bahrain, but there is also concern that in the small communally divided island state migration policy is serving political ends too – with potentially dangerous consequences.

The mood of crisis in Gulf affairs, with decisions on a war against Iraq perhaps just weeks away, is proving a delicate test for the West’s readiness to promote a democracy and human rights agenda.

Opposition groups, infuriated by the final shape of constitutional reforms announced by King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa—the former Emir who on 14 February promoted himself to full monarchical status—are pondering whether to boycott Bahrain’s 9 May municipal and 24 October parliamentary elections.