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A plan to reform the Peshmerga militia in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is in deep trouble due to the inability of the region's two main parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), to work together.

A senior Iranian security official has threatened to resume bombing of targets in northern Iraq if Baghdad fails to meet a 19 September deadline to halt cross-border attacks by exiled Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.

Iraq's Constitutional Court ruled early September that a maritime border agreement between Kuwait and its northern neighbour was annulled for being 'unconstitutional'. The dispute highlights the fragile Kuwaiti position in a changing region and the reduced status of its foreign policy. 

Four people were killed in Kirkuk on 2 September, as Arab and Turkmen protestors tried to stop the Kurdistan Democratic Party from reclaiming its old headquarters building, in violent clashes that point to more trouble ahead in the sensitive city and wider Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Tensions could ratchet up further as two thorny anniversaries approach, before provincial elections scheduled for 18 December – unless the federal and Kurdish authorities find a way to better manage the situation. 

Securing workable energy, economic and security relations with Turkey has even greater urgency for Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government as the KRG says it can no longer afford to pay its employees’ salaries due to the closure since late March of the vital crude oil export pipeline.

While the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) suffers from its Turkish pipeline closure, the federal Government of Iraq (GoI) is also in an uncomfortable situation when it comes to energy trade – despite the good news that TotalEnergies and its partner QatarEnergy have finalised their headline $27bn deal to develop a roster of major hydrocarbons and renewables projects.

Former senior Parastin intelligence agency officer Brigadier General Mohammed Mirza Sindi was killed in Zakho, Iraq's Dohuk governorate, when the car he was travelling in exploded. Parastin has close links to the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

There has been widespread anger in the Gulf and the wider region after copies of the Koran were publicly burned in Sweden and Denmark. Scandinavian authorities have so far said they cannot prevent such episodes as they would be counter to freedom of speech (although they could constitute a hate crime).

Iraq's geopolitical landscape will change, if only marginally, when Halabja becomes a full governorate, as expected in the near future. The area –site of a devastating chemical weapons attack by Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1988 – is already recognised as a governorate by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), but equivalent federal recognition has, until now, eluded Halabja.

A rift has emerged between Baghdad and the Christian community, after President Abdul Latif Rashid revoked a 2013 decree which recognised Cardinal Louis Sako as head of the Chaldean Catholic Church – which is distinct from the church in Rome but with close connections to the Vatican.

Iran has been flexing its muscles in oil and gas disputes with its Arab neighbours, in what could be an attempt to ensure the recent trend towards rapprochement with regional and international powers happens on its terms. But factional disputes within the Iranian elite may also be playing a role, as rivals in Tehran try to ensure their vested interests aren’t damaged.

Oil exports: Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani held talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to discuss oil exports, in a meeting in Ankara on 20 June. In late March, Turkey halted exports via the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline following an arbitration ruling by the Paris-based International Court of Arbitration.

Sadr’s return: Muqtada Al-Sadr is reportedly lining up for a return to the political fray, by putting up candidates in the upcoming provincial council elections, in what would be the first significant move by the Shia cleric  since he withdrew his MPs from the Council of Representatives (parliament) in June 2022. On 19 June, Shafaq News Agency cited an unnamed party source as saying “the leadership has decided to participate in the provincial council elections.

Kirkuk's location on the boundary between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the rest of Iraq has made it a key arena for the rivalry between Erbil and Baghdad. The region’s multi-ethnic character – a legacy of Saddam Hussein's Arabization policy – is likely to be to the fore in the run-up to provincial elections planned for December.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani's government has launched Iraq down a perilous fiscal path, with an extravagant three-year budget for 2023-25 which gained Council of Representatives (Majlis an-Nuwwab or parliament) approval.