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More than 400 Iraqi citizens returned to their home country from Belarus on 18 November, on board an Iraqi Airways flight arranged by the federal Ministry of Transport. Several thousand Iraqis are thought to have travelled to Belarus to try and enter the European Union.

GSN Risk Grade: D↓4 Recent developments Election results: The Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) cemented its position as the main Kurdish political force at the 10 October general election, winning 33 seats, up from 25 in 2018.

GSN Risk Grade: D↓4 Recent developments Election surprises: The general election on 10 October delivered some surprising results, including a strong showing from Muqtada Al-Sadr’s bloc, which emerged as the overall winner with 73 seats (up from 54 in the 2018 election), and a weak performance by the pro-Iran Fateh Alliance, which slumped from 48 seats last time to 15 this time.

The election for the Council of Representatives on 10 October threw up some surprising results. Moqtada Al-Sadr’s Sairoon list had been seen as the front-runner, but performed even better than many had expected, adding 19 or 20 seats to the 54 it held in the outgoing parliament, based on preliminary results.

The devastating terrorist attacks of 9/11, and the US pursuit of vengeance, plunged the Gulf region and wider Arab world into turmoil. Key states in the region clamped down hard on Islamist groups, their supporters and the financing methods that kept them going.

Voting for the Council of Representatives on 10 October is likely to see very low turnout amid voter apathy, with Moqtada Al-Sadr and the Kurdistan Democratic Party tipped to emerge as key figures in the post-election environment. But what really counts is the behind-closed-doors horse-trading between major political blocs.

While other majors have been pulling back, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanné has stuck with his commitment to invest big in Iraq and other troublesome ‘frontier’ areas, as the French giant signed a series of deals with the oil and electricity ministries and the National Investment Commission on 5 September to supply more natural gas to power plants and develop a solar photovoltaic power plant in the Basra region.

The Pearl Petroleum consortium co-led by the UAE’s Crescent Petroleum and Dana Gas, has secured $250m from the US’ International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to fund an expansion of gas production at the Khor Mor plant in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Genel Energy has countered the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)’s notice of its intention to terminate production-sharing contracts (PSCs) to develop the Bina Bawi and Miran natural gas fields with action to resolve a move for which Genel on 20 August said there were “no grounds”.

The list continues to grow of individuals believed to have been targeted by Gulf governments using Pegasus spyware made by the Israeli company NSO Group. It now includes slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s fiancée Hatice Cengiz, dissident Dubai royal Princess Haya, Iraq’s President Barham Salih and founder of Qatar’s BeIN Media Group Nasser Al-Khelaifi.

The United States announced an end to combat missions in Iraq by 31 December, following several days of meetings with Iraqi figures in Washington in late July. In April the US had said it planned to take the step, but did not set a date.

GSN Risk Grade – D↓4 Overview Politics: Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932; it became a republic in 1958. Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial presidency was marked by conflict, including the 1980-88 war with Iran, the 1991 Gulf war and the US-led occupation in 2003, which removed the Baathist regime.

A report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Democracy and Human Rights in the Gulf – a group of 17 members of parliament (MPs) in the UK – called on London to halt payments to the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries under the UK’s Gulf Strategy Fund (GSF).

GSN Risk Grade – D↓4 Overview Politics: Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions. The 2005 constitution gave the KRI an identity distinct from Iraq, as a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement outlined how power would be shared. 

BP is planning to hive off its operations at the 1.5m b/d Rumaila oil field into a new stand-alone company jointly owned by its partner China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in a move which seems to mimics the UK major’s recently announced venture in Angola with Italy’s Eni.