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President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government continues to lose ground against the Houthis in Marib province, where the rebels are close to encircling Marib city. Since taking control of the Al-Awadh tribal area in Al-Baydha province’s Radman district, south of Marib governorate, Houthis have advanced into the Qayfah area and have pushed Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State elements further away from their stronghold in Rada, Al-Baydha.

On 26 August, the Houthi-owned Al-Masirah website suggested – quoting what an analyst called “dubious sources” – that the UAE was facilitating the establishment of two Israeli signals intelligence (Sigint) sites on Socotra.

As its monsoon season dies away, Socotra remains in the eye of a political storm. On 11 August, thousands of Socotrans demonstrated in the capital Hadibo in favour of the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, in a riposte to the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council militias which have tried to assert control in recent weeks.

Healthcare crisis: Yemen’s first confirmed case of Covid-19 was only reported on 10 April; since then the official number of cases has risen to almost 1,500, with more than 400 deaths. However, these figures understate the reality by an unknowable amount. The United Nations special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council on 14 May that Covid-19 “is spreading at an unknown rate, given very low levels of testing”.

Peace negotiations in Riyadh between the Southern Transition Council (STC) and President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government remain at an impasse, but there are some indications that Riyadh’s patience with Hadi is wearing thin.Saudi Arabia has maintained its support for the Hadi administration through most of the Yemen conflict, but his authority is being continually undermined by his allies in the south – predominantly vice president Ali Mohsen and the Sunni Islamist party Al-Islah – but also by his own conduct while residing in Riyadh, where sources say his hosts have been disappointed by Hadi’s lack of engagement with local or international actors.

As Houthi forces continue to advance from the west towards the city of Mareb, a new front has opened south of Mount Murad along the border with Al-Baydha governorate. Any major gains in this area would see Houthis controlling the area around Mareb city from the west, south- west and south, leaving only the open desert areas to the north and east.The oil-rich province has served as a primary base for the Saudi-led coalition since the conflict started and its hydrocarbons are a vital source of revenue for President Abd- Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s Riyadh-based government.

Local forces trained and funded by the UAE and pledging allegiance to the Southern Transition Council (STC) announced they had taken control of the island of Socotra on 20 June. They have displaced governor Ramzi Mahrous who had been appointed by the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Mahrous is a Socotran with a well-established pedigree as a member of the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood-inclined Islah party. The STC has in his stead appointed Rafat Al-Thaqali as governor.

Talks under way in Riyadh between President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) could pave the way for a return of government officials to the interim capital Aden, even after the recent ousting of Hadi’s governor from Socotra by STC forces closely aligned with the UAE. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a political deal between the two parties, in the hope it will bring an end to clashes in Abyan governorate.

Pro-Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces seized a shipment of YR64bn ($256m)-worth of newly printed bank notes en route to the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) in Aden on 13 June, threatening a new currency crisis. While some media outlets called it a ‘bank heist’, the secessionist’s Supreme Economic Committee (SEC) claimed the move was aimed at curbing corruption and funding for terrorist elements. The SEC said the new bills were printed without sufficient deposits to prevent a collapse of the Yemeni rial.

Yemen’s debilitating economic crisis is being made worse by the growing spread of coronavirus. There have been 732 reported cases of Covid-19 as of mid-June, nearly 500 of which are in the south (Houthis refuse to disclose specific numbers in their territory). Numbers are likely very much higher is a country with a fractured health system. The official coronavirus death toll is 165, but the true figure could well be far higher. United Nations agencies have been evacuating staff.

A month into the unilateral ceasefire called by Saudi Arabia, there are still no signs of renewed peace talks. Meanwhile, challenges are mounting throughout the south as fighting continues along a number of fronts against the Houthis. The late April declaration of self-administration by the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) has shown again how little control Riyadh has over events on its southern border.President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government has lost significant territory since March, as Houthis now control western Al-Jawf and Mareb provinces.

A security unit on board the British-flagged, Norwegian-crewed Stolt Apel fired at six gunmen aboard two speed boats that had fired an RPG7 rocket-propelled grenade at the 23,000t chemical tanker and were attempting to board the ship. The incident, on 17 May, unfolded 120km off Mukulla in the Gulf of Aden, the UK Maritime Trade Organisation reported.Maritime security company Dryad Global said this was the ninth such incident this year in the international transit corridor through the Gulf of Aden.

A donor pledging event organised by Saudi Arabia and the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs to raise money for relief works in Yemen fell some way short of its goal on 2 June. According to UN under-secretary general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief co-ordinator Mark Lowcock, donors pledged some $1.35bn, well below the $2.41bn that aid agencies estimate they need to pay for essential aid between now and December, including programmes to counter Covid-19.

A month since the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared a state of emergency and self-administration on 25 April, there is no sign of tensions easing with the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. This raises fresh doubts over Yemen’s long-term viability as a single state. The Hadi government has directed its troops in Abyan province to seize the towns of Shoqra and Zinjibar from UAE-supported Security Belt Units.

Aydarous Al-Zubaydi and the Southern Transition Council (STC) have grand ambitions for south Yemen, but the reality on the ground means they will have to restrict their hopes to territory which represents a fraction of the pre-1990 southern state. Among the five mainland governorates which made up South Yemen, Shebwa remains firmly in the hands of government forces and within Islah’s sphere of influence.