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Coronavirus threats: Yemen remains one of the few countries in the world not to have reported any cases of coronavirus, as of 31 March, according to the World Health Organisation. However, both the government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the Houthi rebels have been introducing measures to try and prevent the global pandemic consuming the country. Among the steps to date, in late March the Hadi government closed ports of entry and, in the city of Taiz, shut shopping malls, mosques, wedding halls and qat markets.

Nearly five months since the signing of the Riyadh Agreement, which was meant to calm tensions between President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists, tensions continue to rise. Meanwhile, Houthis continue to claim victories against government troops along various fronts.Forces loyal to the STC in Aden, Abyan, Lahj and Shebwa remain on high alert as sporadic clashes with government troops continue. The detention of southern officers and civilians by government troops affiliated with Al-Islah in Shebwa is a central problem.

Riyadh confirmed on 15 February that the kingdom had lost a Royal Saudi Air Force jet in the skies over Yemen. A statement from Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen official spokesman Colonel Turki Al-Malki said the Tornado had crashed at 23:45 the night before, while providing back-up and support to units of the National Army of Yemen in Al-Jawf governorate.

Following the seizure of Iranian-manufactured arms off Yemen last November, the US Navy intercepted a further shipment on 9 February, when the cruiser USS Normandy boarded a small dhow in the Arabian Sea off Oman. The Iranian-manufactured consignment included 150 Dehlavieh anti-tank guided missiles (based on the Russian Kornet), four Misagh-2 Chinese-derived surface-to-air missiles and thermal imaging weapon sights.

Houthi consolidation of power in Sanaa now extends far beyond the control of state institutions and the financial sector. One of the more subtle, yet highly profitable, moves made by Houthi officials has been to take control of the main security company providing services to the United Nations (UN) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Yemen Armor, which was taken over by Houthis in December 2017, provides armed and unarmed security personnel, along with armoured vehicles, to all UN offices and NGOs operating from Sanaa.

Supreme Political Council (SPC) president Mahdi Mashat issued a decree on 5 January launching the Houthi’s economic plan for 2020. Among this potentially significant document’s six priorities were payment of half-salaries to government employees every two months, tax exemptions for vehicles and manufacturing equipment, and a directive to establish national banks. The first phase of the plan was launched in Sanaa on 14 January by Mashat and prime minister Abdelaziz Saleh Bin Habtour.

There was a boost for the region’s museum culture from an unusual source, with the competion of building work as an important initial step taken to reopen the National Museum in Taiz. A museum since 1967 – and previously the residence of Imam Ahmed Hamid Al-Din – the historic building was shelled by Houthi rebels in 2016. Finance has been secured for the restoration work from the British Council’s Culural Protection Fund (£100,00 – $131,040), the World Monument Fund (WMF) and an unidentified private donor.

Amid renewed tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, and with diminishing prospects for peace, the Houthi authorities may see new opportunities to extract more economic and military aid from their ally Iran following the killing of IRGC Quds Force commander General Qassim Soleimani. Tehran and the Houthis were drawing closer together even before the US drone strike which killed the Iranian military leader on 3 January.

The crew of the guided missile destroyer USS Forrest Sherman reported finding a cache of Iranian-origin “advanced guided missile components” when they intercepted a small Yemeni dhow in the Arabian Sea on 25 November. The missile components were described by the US Navy as being of a sophistication not previously encountered; further details have not been released pending analysis. Previous interceptions at sea have largely comprised small arms. The dhow and its crew were handed over to the Yemen Coast Guard.

Riyadh agreement: President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government signed an accord with the Southern Transition Council in the Saudi capital on 5 November. The Saudi government had played a critical role in bringing the two sides together, in a development which should help to avert another front opening up in the country’s long-running conflict in the wake of the UAE decision to withdraw most of its forces from the arena.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) on 8 November received the United Nations secretary-general’s special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths in Riyadh. The meeting gave Griffiths an opportunity to congratulate MBS “on the success of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reach the signing of [the] Riyadh Agreement between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council”, as the official statement put it.

Iran has courted controversy after handing control of Yemen’s diplomatic buildings in Tehran to a Houthi envoy to use as an embassy. Ibrahim Mohammed Al-Deilami presented his credentials to President Hassan Rouhani on 19 November. Deilami had been nominated as the ambassador by the self-styled National Salvation Government of Yemen in August and had presented his credentials to Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif the following month. Rouhani told Deilami that Iran “will stand beside the Yemeni people both in the countering [of] aggressors and in negotiations”.

There have been no new drone strikes on Saudi territory from Yemen following the 14 September attack on oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. The strike against the Saudi Aramco plants was initially claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, before those claims were widely dismissed as implausible. It remains to be seen if the drone and missile campaign has come to a complete halt, but GSN sources indicate the Houthis are having difficulty in securing components for their drones from overseas.

Rising tensions between the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and southern secessionists are distracting from the war against Houthis across northern Yemen. Analysts suggest that, if the conflict between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the government continues, it may force the coalition to rely further on airstrikes to contain Houthi elements, increasing the cost of the war effort and risking further civilian casualties. Without further action, sources close to the Guards of the Republic tell GSN they fear the strategic port city of Hodeida may fall to the Houthis once again.

Coming soon after the ambitious attacks on two Saudi oil pumping stations in May, the Houthi threat to southern Saudi Arabia was underlined by drone strikes on the civil airport at Abha, on 12 and 23 June (both of which caused fatalities and dozens of injuries) and another on 2 July (when nine civilians were wounded and there was extensive damage to the airport’s departure hall). Satellite imagery of Jizan airport, which was also attacked in the same period, show a communications building and a substantial concrete structure were destroyed.