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Since his early April declaration of opposition to the Saleh regime, Sheikh Tareq Bin Nasser Al-Fadhli has been bombarded with messages of support from expatriate southern Yemenis. His stance is seen as a recognition of local anger

While Western governments have been fretting over Yemen’s jihadist threat, Ali Abdullah Saleh is confronted by other challenges. Overt opposition from the influential Sheikh Tareq Bin Nasser Al-Fadhli is accelerating a gathering confrontation between the Sanaa regime and an embittered and neglected southern population – which holds the risk of a disastrous new conflict splitting the troubled

Tensions are clearly rising in southern Yemen. The late April demonstration in Mukalla spilled over into minor violence, and although no one died, the seriousness of these events

Defunct Miami-based internet phone company Latin Node Inc has agreed to pay a $2m fine after pleading guilty for violating the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. It was charged with paying bribes to officials in Honduras and Yemen in exchange for favourable interconnection rates.

The 15 March suicide bombing of Korean tourists in Yemen and the 18 March follow-up attack on a foreign convoy in Sana’a have underlined the danger of trying to draw a line under Yemen’s terrorist threat.

The Shibam bomber, Abdulrahman Mehdi al-Ajiri, has been quickly profiled, giving an interesting insight into the new generation of Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Al-Ajari was born in the Al-Salam (Peace) district of Sanaa in 1990. He spent most of his life in the Al-Jamhori Hospital area in Taiz, a city associated with strong recruitment of Islamist militants for the Afghan jihad in the 1980s and 1990s. Al-Ajiri is not the only

Yemen is trying to counter the threat of falling oil production by bringing in more IOCs – with recent changes to the hydrocarbons law intended to entice back the majors, rather than giving new incentives to the minnows who have helped build up its industry. The emergence of export LNG is an added incentive to invest, provided gas-gathering systems and other infrastructure can be efficiently developed. President Saleh is looking to old friends in Russia to help develop such projects, but all participants are welcome during a period when many western IOCs are confronted with financial pressures, and equity stakes will become available as firms seek to cash in their assets.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh in February travelled to Russia for high-profile talks with President Dmitry Medvedev, his mentor Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. While talks mainly centred on arms deals, Saleh also met the head of Russian oil giant Gazprom. Yemeni state media reported officials signed a '$1bn deal' to buy Russian equipment, including fighter planes, helicopters and tanks. This included the purchase of MiG-29 planes, helicopters, T-80 and T-72 tanks, and armoured vehicles. Local observers have long speculated that Yemen could be one of several regional states to host Russian bases in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean,

Despite approaching legislative elections, Yemen’s president will worry more about northern security, jihadist groups and the return of Guantanamo detainees than the political challenge from a quarrelsome opposition. But no one is yet focused on the real long-term danger – economic disaster as oil revenues collapse.

Yemeni-based militants constitute one external threat to expatriates. Indeed, the prospect of establishing bases in Yemen has been mentioned prominently in militant communiqués and in Saudi government statements since 2006.

Total has signed an agreement with Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) to take a 31% stake in onshore exploration Block 70 in Yemen’s Shabwa governorate. Bahrain-based Energy Alliance Company, which has an interesting set of Saudi and other Arab investors, has become involved in Eritrea.

According to Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi, terrorism and tribal rebellions have cost Yemen more than $2bn in economic losses. He has appealed to international donors to help. In early October, President Ali Abdullah Saleh arrived

The jihadist threat to foreign interests may be waning with the gradual whittling down of the cadre of (known) hardened Yemeni militants. This war of attrition – analysed at length in GSN over the past year, with an update on Al-Qaeda in Yemen/Jund Al-Yemen in Defence and security, below – may not yet signal the threat’s end. But it has convinced governments and corporations that Yemen remains a place where their citizens can travel and where money can be made if care is taken.

The death of the Al-Tamimi brigade’s Hamza Al-Qayti deprived the jihadist movement of a senior leader and suggested that the security forces may have turned the tide against ‘Al-Qaeda’s’ Jund Al-Yemen arm, following confidence-sapping attacks in H2 2007 and H1 2008. But it is premature to say that the threat has gone away.

Kuwait Energy Company has purchased Oil Search’s assets in Egypt and Yemen, and announced an agreement with the Somali government, underlining chief executive Sara Akbar’s determination to make the Kuwait-based indie a significant player in emerging hydrocarbons frontiers. A London listing is expected in 2009