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Lebanon is a second major source of Sunni fighters after Syria’s home-grown and returning jihadists in the current conflict. In another example of ‘blowback’, the Syrian regime is now paying for its fostering of Sunni terrorist factions within northern Lebanon.

Published in May 2012, this graphic illustrates data for the Middle East North Africa region taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Selected indicators include real GDP, consumer price inflation and current account balance. A map of the region is shaded to show revisions to 2012 GDP growth forecasts, while a chart shows fiscal breakeven oil prices.

On 16 February, US director of national intelligence James Clapper told the Senate Armed Services Committee there were signs Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) fighters may already be fighting in Syria. There is growing evidence to support this view, and growing concern that the conflict in Syria could merge with violence in Iraq to form a single, transnational conflict zone reaching from the Iranian border to the eastern Mediterranean.

It has been more than a year since the start of an uprising against President Bashar Al-Assad, whose forces have cracked down brutally on protesters. The UN estimates that government retaliation has killed more than 9,000 people since March 2011; the authorities say militants have killed more than 2,500 soldiers and police.

The Syrian crisis is providing another arena for increasingly aggressive covert operations campaigns in the region, which have drawn both on subsidised proxies and on the Gulf’s fast-developing special forces capabilities. GSN analyses the GCC’s revived taste for covert activity

As diplomatic options narrow and the killing continues, Saudi Arabia has been increasingly assertive about the need to arm the Syrian opposition. But analysts say fears over the potential ramifications mean Riyadh is not yet set on a course of action

The Gulf Co-operation Council is recalling its ambassadors from Syria, and expelling Syrian diplomats.

Syria is looking increasingly isolated and at risk of civil war. A League of Arab States mission has failed to staunch the violence and Bashar Al-Assad’s government does not appear ready to give ground. The UN says more than 5,400 people have been killed since protests erupted in March; Syrian officials say 2,000 members of the security forces have died.

Reflecting a deteriorating political situation and a consequent economic downturn, GSN has lowered its risk grade for Syria to E4 (from D3).

Bold stands on Libya and Syria could herald the beginning of a new era for the Arab League – and the Gulf states, led by Qatar, are now in the driving seat. It was assumed that the League of Arab States would dither its way through the Arab Spring as it has through many other tests of its relevance

Poland’s Kulczyk Oil Ventures (KOV) has said it will halt the drilling of its first exploration well on Syria’s Block 9 amid increasing civil unrest in the country

Criticism surrounding the $53m US deal to sell armoured vehicles and military equipment to Bahrain has grabbed the headlines, but it is a drop in the ocean in terms of US arms exports.  

The Syrian National Council (SNC) convened in Istanbul on 2 October to announce its official formation and outline its structure and goals. The council set out the formation of a ‘national body to represent the Syrian revolution, build a modern civil state and achieve democratic change’.

Despite international condemnation, continued street protests and sanctions, combined with escalating economic problems, Bashar Al-Assad’s government has dug in as the Syrian uprising pushes on into its sixth month. But the signs are that Assad’s hold on power is tenuous and Gulf states have revised their policies as a consequence

Consensus has built behind the EU’s threat to embargo Syrian state oil companies, crude exports and products imports in an effort to seriously squeeze the Assad regime