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Tribes play an important role in Kuwaiti political life – not least because the largest of them are generally pro-opposition. However their influence is not always readily apparent to outside observers. The tribes are spread around the country with no real geographic focus and most are a mix of Sunni and Shia. The largest is the Al-Awazem, whose prominent members include the recently ousted National Assembly (parliament) member Bader Dahome.

The latest Israeli-Palestinian flare-up is an all-too familiar expression of scarcely bottled-up frustrations in the West Bank and Gaza, which the aggressive departure from any two-state solution by Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and his allies has exacerbated (GSN 1,097/1). GSN’s analysis of social media shows that, in the era of the Abraham Accords (GSN 1,109/1), the crisis – which began in the Jerusalem suburb of Sheikh Jarrah and spread more widely before focusing on Gaza and then, on 18 May, triggering mass protests on the West Bank – has exposed new rifts in attitudes. The ‘Arab street’ hasn’t disappeared – it has gone online.

The government is failing to win over members of parliament and the public on a variety of political and social issues, while Emir Sheikh Nawaf is finding it hard to impose any authority on events Prime minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Sabah remains at odds with the majority of members of parliament (MPs), ahead of a byelection on 22 May and the National Assembly’s  resumption three days later. With few signs that a breakthrough can be found, fresh elections are becoming ever more likely.

The Kuwaiti government appointed several old faces to high positions in mid-May in moves that local sources suggested showed the authority’s continued efforts to maintain the status quo and avoid substantive reforms.

GSN Risk Grade – B↓2↓ Overview Politics: Governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century, Kuwait gained independence from Britain in 1961, with a constitution confirming the hereditary monarchy but giving significant powers to an independent judiciary and elected assembly.

The case involving alleged corruption at the Army Fund took an unprecedented turn when former prime minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah was arrested following a hearing at the Ministerial Court on 13 April. He is being held pending the next court appearance scheduled for 27 April.

The Amiri Diwan has finally begun appointing its officials, following significant delays after the ascension of Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah last September. The structure remains much the same as before, with Ali Jarrah Al-Sabah as minister for Amiri Diwan affairs and Mohammed Abdullah Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah as deputy minister. Most importantly, former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah – a central figure in political discord – remains the top advisor for the ruling family, signalling continuity at the top of the political system and potentially further battles.

 Dubai Deputy Ruler and long-standing federal finance minister Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum died on 24 March, aged 75. It followed several months of illness. Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum performed funeral prayers at Zabeel Mosque at a service attended by Hamdan’s sons Sheikhs Rashid, Saeed and Maktoum.

The corruption case against former prime minister Sheikh Jaber Mubarak Al-Sabah, former defence minister Khaled Jarrah Al-Sabah and four other senior officials is set to start on 14 April in the Ministerial Court. The court’s Investigative Committee, which is responsible for prosecuting high-ranked members of the ruling family, has demanded they be punished for mismanagement of government funds at the Ministry of Defence.

A flurry of announcements by GCC leaders about energy transitions and industrial strategies suggest major shifts are under way, if not always at the pace that global consultancies, uncritical media and ruling family boosters claim. As they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic and seek an exit from the Yemen war, core royal leaderships are applying a distinctly top-down approach to centrally plan their way towards a new global role.

Opposition MPs fell just short of the numbers needed to block the swearing-in of Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Sabah’s new cabinet, but the government faces continued hostility from parliament and beyond.

Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah continues to struggle with poor health after an emergency trip to New York for medical treatment earlier this month. Accompanied by Kuwait’s top gastroenterologist, Dr. Fahad Al-Ibraheem, the ruler was sent for tests related to the long-term impact of his stomach cancer. Sheikh Nawaf has for years struggled with the ailment.  

Regional institutions and developments Arab League: The UAE has called for Syria to be brought back into the League of Arab  States, a decade on from the start of the civil war which has ravaged the country and led to the Assad regime’s suspension from the pan-Arab body in November 2011.

With the emir out of the country for several weeks undergoing medical treatment, Kuwait is facing an escalating political crisis, as lines are drawn between opposition MPs and the government against a backdrop of contentious court rulings.

London think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)’s annual Military Balance shows that Oman retains its position of having the largest defence budget as a percentage of GDP, at 12%, up from 9.9% in 2019. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are in joint fourth place in the IISS rankings of the world’s biggest defence spenders, at 7.1% of GDP each. Iraq, the UAE and Qatar also make the global top 15 on this measure, with 5.8%, 5.6% and 4.4% of their respective GDPs.