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The accession of Dubai’s new ruler to the federal premiership has produced one of the most important government reshuffles in 35 years. It is a clear declaration of intent, a pointer to the evolution of national development strategy but also a completion of the leadership change effectively inaugurated with the November 2004 death of iconic founding president Sheikh Zayed.  

Now Arafat has gone, his detractors in the Gulf could provide more substantial backing for the Palestinians as part of a wider peace effort.

While the world focused on the US move to confirm their small Emirate as a key hub in its global military strategy, effectively replacing Saudi Arabia, Qatari voters on 29 April overwhelmingly approved the new Constitution presented by Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani.

Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani on 15 April urged Qataris to vote in a 29 April referendum on a draft Constitution that will grant legislative powers to a 45-member Shura (Advisory Council), regulate ruling family affairs and lay out a separation of powers in a significant step towards democratisation in the GCC region. Once voted in, the Constitution is not open to amendment for a minimum period of ten years.

The mood of crisis in Gulf affairs, with decisions on a war against Iraq perhaps just weeks away, is proving a delicate test for the West’s readiness to promote a democracy and human rights agenda.

Qatar’s future parliamentarians will have legislative powers, the right of veto over the budget and be able to scrutinise ministers — but only two-thirds will be elected, under the proposed new Constitution. One-third of the 45-member Legislative Council — probably including ministers — will be nominated by Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani, who will decide when the Constitution is put into effect, probably by early in 2003.

The US public  was  shown  further  grounds  to  support  an attack  on  Iraq,  when  a  leaked  intelligence  report  suggested that  a  US Navy pilot  lost  in  1991  might  still  be  alive  and  in captivity. It touched on a topic of exceptional sensitivity in the USA — where  many  people  still  believe  missing  servicemen from  the  Korean and Vietnam wars  are  either  alive  or  were held  until  their  deaths.  It  also  forced  a  reluctant  Pentagon  to publicly admit that the Iraqi Air Force (IrAF) scored a single air-to-air victory on the first night of the Gulf War.

The  New  Yorker magazine,  required  reading  for  MidEast watchers,  has  revived  suggestions  of  a  “new”  link  between Iraqi intelligence  and  Osama  Bin  Laden’s Al-Qaeda network. Its claim that the two pariahs jointly ran a terrorist organisation in Kurdish northern Iraq—if true—could provide the smoking gun  that  US hawks  have  been  seeking  to  take  the  “war against terrorism” to Iraq. Efforts to link 11 September suicide hijacker Mohammed  Atta with  Iraqi  intelligence  in  the  Czech Republic did  not  convince,  and  until  now  the  Central Intelligence  Agency — but  not  its  influential  former  directorJames  Woolsey—had  largely  discounted  reported  links between President Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda.

Opposition groups, infuriated by the final shape of constitutional reforms announced by King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa—the former Emir who on 14 February promoted himself to full monarchical status—are pondering whether to boycott Bahrain’s 9 May municipal and 24 October parliamentary elections.

It will probably not be until early 2002 that the committee appointed by Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani to prepare a draft constitution finally produces its report. But certain principles are clear already. There will be an elected national assembly to replace the long-standing appointed Majlis Al-Shura, and Qatari women will have the vote and the right to stand for elected office — a principle already established with the present elected municipal councils.

The death of Bahrain’s Emir, Sheikh Isa bin Salman Al Khalifah, on 6 March marked the start of a new era in Bahraini politics. Sheikh Isa’s death was however of wider relevance since his departure was a reminder of the mortality of the GCC’s other elderly rulers. In typical slow-motion fashion, power in the GCC states is passing from the founding fathers to the newer generation. Whether the new rulers will be able to cope with the complex demands of ruling their societies in a rapidly changing world remains to be seen.

The UAE's long-awaited government reshuffle saw a significant shake up in key technocratic posts but, unsurprisingly, no change in the "power ministries." The cabinet shake up, announced at the end of March, saw the installation of eight new ministers in the 21 member cabinet under Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid.

As the end of Ramadan Eid passed, the GCC states found themselves in a dangerously unstable situation. Bahrain is racked by violence and unrest that government repression appears unable to quash. Qatar's emir and his father are engaged in a bitter long-distance tussle for power which threatens to embroil outside powers. Most importantly, if opaquely, the senior Saudi princes are be locked into a power struggle. 

Defence ministers of the GCC states, meeting in Kuwait, endorsed an earlier proposal by Oman that the Peninsula Shield joint defence force be increased tenfold to 100,000 men. Currently the Peninsula Shield force, based at Hafr Al-Batin in north-eastern Saudi Arabia, has a strength of about 10,000 men.

Following liberation seven months after Saddam Hussein’s invasion, GSN wrote that the Gulf war’s aftermath was “quickly bringing to Kuwait a painful awareness that the real problems are only just beginning”. The late John Christie observed that while “the number of Kuwaitis who would like to see the Al-Sabah replaced can be counted on the fingers of one hand, the number of Kuwaitis who may come to demand a genuine share in the government process… can reasonably be estimated as a high proportion of the total” population