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GSN Risk Grade: B↓2↓ PM grilling: A grilling of Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah over alleged irregularities in running state affairs, including embezzlement of public funds, is due to take place in the National Assembly (parliament) on 29 March.

There have been further movements of coalition forces following Saudi troop redeployments and withdrawals in Mahra, Shebwa and Aden in October. Saudi and UAE forces have withdrawn from the port area of Hodeidah, in effect ceding the city to the Houthis. A coalition spokesman described this as part of tactical redeployments, with the troops needed elsewhere.

Tensions between leadership rivals in Mahra and Socotra are rising, as fighting between Houthi forces and those of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government intensifies in Marib and threatens to spill over into the few regions that have not seen major fighting, specifically Hadhramaut and Mahra.

Developments in recent weeks suggest that local resistance to outside interference has stiffened in Yemen’s Mahra governorate, which borders Oman. It has not reached the point where Mahris wish to secede from Yemen, but there is an insistence that they enjoy a high degree of autonomy in any post-war settlement.  

President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government continues to lose ground against the Houthis in Marib province, where the rebels are close to encircling Marib city. Since taking control of the Al-Awadh tribal area in Al-Baydha province’s Radman district, south of Marib governorate, Houthis have advanced into the Qayfah area and have pushed Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State elements further away from their stronghold in Rada, Al-Baydha.

GSN Risk Grade - B3. Hydrogen developments: The government is among those that have seen an opportunity to be an early mover in the potentially huge global hydrogen economy.

Peace negotiations in Riyadh between the Southern Transition Council (STC) and President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government remain at an impasse, but there are some indications that Riyadh’s patience with Hadi is wearing thin.Saudi Arabia has maintained its support for the Hadi administration through most of the Yemen conflict, but his authority is being continually undermined by his allies in the south – predominantly vice president Ali Mohsen and the Sunni Islamist party Al-Islah – but also by his own conduct while residing in Riyadh, where sources say his hosts have been disappointed by Hadi’s lack of engagement with local or international actors.

Talks under way in Riyadh between President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) could pave the way for a return of government officials to the interim capital Aden, even after the recent ousting of Hadi’s governor from Socotra by STC forces closely aligned with the UAE. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a political deal between the two parties, in the hope it will bring an end to clashes in Abyan governorate.

Nomination papers were filed by 376 candidates for the upcoming National Assembly (parliament) election by the time of the 7 September deadline, including 27 women. Among the candidates were over 44 members of the outgoing parliament, as well as former national speaker Ahmed Al-Saadoun.

Regular analysis of satellite imagery of Perim Island in the Bab El Mandeb strait over recent weeks suggests a new 1,900m runway planned by the UAE remains incomplete, although enough of it has been built to mean it is probably usable by tactical transport aircraft.

Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)’s Vision 2030 policies have increasingly sought to make the kingdom a hub for global sporting events, its soft power projection extending through the ownership of football and other sporting assets and, in the process, providing unprecedented entertainment for the Saudi population.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is anxious to press on with the Neom mega-project and is apparently unhappy with the progress made to date, despite continuing scepticism at the viability of the strategic master plan for a city intended to house 9m people, who would be vertically organised to live along a linear glass wall. 

Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has been pushing his economic reform agenda in the days since being named prime minister. On 29 September, he unveiled a new strategy for Savvy Games Group, a subsidiary of the state-owned Public Investment Fund (PIF), with the aim of turning the kingdom into a hub for gaming and esports by 2030.

A 45-year prison term given to a Saudi woman accused of damaging the country via her activity on Twitter has highlighted what appears to be another wave of repression.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has worked hard to remove any possibility of political opposition emerging from within Al-Saud ranks over the past five years. This campaign has involved several bouts of locking up senior family members, with the clear backing of his father King Salman, most notably in November 2017 but most recently in March when Princes Ahmed Bin Abdelaziz and Mohammed Bin Nayef were moved from house arrest to prison.