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As protests continue in Egypt, new personalities and potential changes in future policies that will shape the energy sector place activity and investment by international companies on an uncertain footing

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly oil report warned on 12 July that the oil supply disruptions in Iran, Libya, Venezuela and elsewhere could create problems for global oil markets. The Paris-based agency’s remarks came despite the 23 June agreement by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allied producers led by Russia to boost production in an effort to prevent oil prices rising too fast.

Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its Opec-plus allies agreed on 7 December to cut 800,000 b/d from their combined output from 1 January at a ministerial meeting in Vienna. It was the last meeting that Qatar will attend as an Opec member. Along with Opec members, a group of non-member states including Russia, Kazakhstan, Sudan and Mexico agreed to cut a combined 400,000 b/d, taking the total supply cut to 1.2m b/d.

Data for H1 2016 confirm the extent of competition in the global market for liquefied natural gas and shifting market trends in critical Asian LNG markets. Australian LNG exports just outpaced Qatari sales to the region, for the first time since H2 2010. Demand from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan continued to decline, and while Chinese imports continue to grow, this is insufficient to offset the wider regional downturn.

Foreign affairs minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan was in Canada in early July, and visited Taqa North, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), which is headquartered in Calgary. According to a 7 July report on state news agency Wam, Sheikh Abdullah, accompanied by Canadian foreign minister John Baird, held talks on energy security which looked at co-operation between the UAE and Canada in the oil and gas, renewable energy, investment and economic fields, as well as health, education, infrastructure, agriculture and food security.

Trade and energy minister Yukio Edano has been in Abu Dhabi in an attempt to shore up Japan’s position as the emirate’s largest crude customer.

The latest round of talks between Iran and the P5+1– that is China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, led by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton – took place in Vienna on 8-9 April, and when the parties next meet, in Vienna on 13 May, it will be with a view to start drafting a permanent nuclear deal. Many differences remain. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters after the Vienna talks that there was agreement on 50-60% of issues, but that the remaining issues were “important ones and diverse”. “Even 2% can torpedo all of it,” he said.

After six months of haggling – which is far from a record – the Chamber of Representatives’ 6 May vote has endowed Iraq with a new government. Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s administration would face daunting challenges even without the sharply deteriorating economic outlook, triggered by plunging oil revenues. Iraq is one of the biggest losers from the slump: based on an average $30 a barrel ($/bbl) Brent crude price, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a 70% drop in revenues, while Fitch Ratings expects GDP to contract by almost 10% this year.

Anglo-Turkish Genel Energy has said it anticipates its Miran and Bina Bawi fields will deliver the gas supply to underpin the Gas Sales Agreement signed by the KKRG and Turkey in November, which calls for an initial 4bcm/yr of gas exports from 2017 rising to 10bcm/yr by 2020. In a trading and operations update on 15 January, chief executive Tony Haward said 2013 had been a “transformational year for Genel”. Gross production in the Taq Taq Block in 2013 averaged 77,000 b/d up from 75,500 b/d in 2012.

Qatar, which has the biggest ecological footprint per capita in the world, is hosting the UN Climate Change Conference which, even for a nation that likes the spotlight, is international on a huge scale. The 26 November-7 December event is the biggest conference to be held in the emirate.

After several delays, oil is now pumping through a strategic pipeline linking Abu Dhabi with Fujairah, bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. But analysts say it will be several years before Fujairah sees huge volumes of oil

The contracts are signed and the elections over, but the vagaries of post-election government formation mean that international oil companies will have to wait months to know what attitude the next administration will take towards the service contracts that emerged from last year’s two licensing rounds

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) chief executive Sultan Al-Jaber’s corporate rebranding, announced on 15 October, is the latest move to shake up the UAE’s oil and gas apparatus. It continues a two-year programme of change which is designed to streamline the national oil company (NOC) and inject some dynamism into the federation’s sclerotic hydrocarbons sector. The process is closely overseen by Al-Jaber’s key ally, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ).

Saudi Aramco has completed its takeover of the largest oil refinery in the United States, with the deal to buy Motiva Enterprises from Royal Dutch Shell finalised on 1 May. The deal has been done through Aramco’s wholly-owned subsidiary Saudi Refining Inc. Aramco previously held a 50% stake in the refinery at Port Arthur, Texas.

The discovery of a reserve of more than 80bn barrels of shale oil in shallow waters off the west coast of Bahrain, first revealed on 1 April along with some significant new gas finds, could hardly have come at a better time for the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region’s weakest economy. A few days earlier, the government had pulled a planned multi-tranche sovereign bond issue after being spooked by the high returns demanded by investors.