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Dubai economic recovery gives emirate upgrade: The number of visitors to Dubai surpassed pre-Covid levels in H1 2023, marking the vital tourism sector’s full recovery and prompting a change in GSN’s economic risk grade for the emirate, with the previous downward economic indicator removed. Data from the Department of Economy and Tourism in early August showed a record 8.55m international overnight visitors in H1 23, compared to 8.36m in H1 19.

Kuwait's National Assembly (parliament) agreed to set up a High Election Commission to supervise future elections, a role until now held by the Ministry of Interior. The commission will be run by a panel of five senior judges and be overseen by the Ministry of Justice.

With the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and other state-owned bodies driving many developments in the Saudi economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s annual Article IV consultation places the development of a Sovereign Asset-Liability Management (Salm) framework as "a high priority to support fiscal sustainability".  

Turkish attacks: Türkiye (Turkey) launched a sustained aerial bombardment of Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) bases in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) in early October, following a suicide bombing at the Ministry of Interior building in Ankara on the opening day of the month, a few hours ahead of the reopening of the Turkish parliament after a three-month summer recess.

Qatar’s ambassador to Australia Saad Abdulla Al-Mahmoud Al-Shareef and Qatar Airways executives are expected to be called to testify at an enquiry by the Australian Senate over a growing scandal around the Canberra government’s alleged protection of local flag carrier Qantas against international competition.

GSN canvassed opinion in the credit and political risk markets to see how financing for the wider Middle East region might be affected by the New Year conflict. GSN may not agree with all their views, but specialist analysts can move markets, and several saw the Israeli assault on Gaza as a warning to Tehran; some believed that Israel would consider military intervention in Iran over the next six months, even without US support – but only as a last resort.

KIO allegations: Finance minister Fahd Al-Jarallah has referred the Kuwait Investment Authority’s London outpost, the Kuwait Investment Office (KIO), to the public prosecutor over a series of alleged offences including the illegal disclosure of confidential information between 2018-22. The move was announced by the Ministry of Finance on 16 October.

The Gulf region’s politicians and business leaders returned in force to the World Economic Forum (WEF) held as ever in Davos, Switzerland, but at a different time of year. The most senior regional leader to turn up was Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, who gave a speech at the opening session.

Vice President and Prime Minister of UAE and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) launched a project on 28 September called Designing the Next 50, aimed at shaping the future of the UAE. The project fits into wider plans to draw up a comprehensive development plan for the next five decades leading up to the federation’s centennial in 2071.

Risk grades: Abu Dhabi A1, Dubai A2. RAK’s Russian links: A delegation from the Ural region of Russia visited Ras Al-Khaimah in early November, comprising business owners involved in real estate, engineering services, IT development, food production and investment.

Climate goals: Ahead of the COP28 climate talks in Dubai, the UAE has set out a national action plan to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 – while also remaining a world-leading oil producer.

Saudi-headquartered multilateral the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp) unveiled a new identity, rebranding as The Arab Energy Fund, during the COP28 climate talks on 4 December.

The Saudi offer of long-term tax incentive comes just before new rules are introduced in January stipulating that international companies must base their regional headquarters in the kingdom if they want to compete for government contracts. Saudi Arabia has made the most high-profile recent moves to attract foreign investment, but even the more conservative Kuwait and ‘revolutionary’ Iran are easing terms for incomers.

Opposition to the idea of signing up to a set of requirements from the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) appears to be hardening, after the Assembly of Experts issued a statement on 13 March in which it said that meeting the FATF recommendations would be a “strategic mistake”. It is unusual for the hardline-dominated Assembly of Experts to issue a statement on government policy – its formal role is to appoint the Rahbar (supreme leader).

Moody’s sovereign credit upgrade has returned Qatar to the investment grade level it enjoyed before the 2017-21 boycott by regional foes.