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The failure of Yemen’s warring parties to renew their truce in October is regarded by many observers as a sign of both the increasing strength of the Houthi rebel group and a failure of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to resolve its own internal differences.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has worked hard to remove any possibility of political opposition emerging from within Al-Saud ranks over the past five years. This campaign has involved several bouts of locking up senior family members, with the clear backing of his father King Salman, most notably in November 2017 but most recently in March when Princes Ahmed Bin Abdelaziz and Mohammed Bin Nayef were moved from house arrest to prison.

Isolated by its erstwhile ‘GCC-3’ allies, Qatar gave some very public thanks to those who had stuck by it following the boycott launched by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt in June 2017 when, in the first half of October, it invited senior officials and companies from the likes of Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan to Doha to share a stage with Qatari government ministers.

A summit of regional leaders, held in Abu Dhabi on 18 January, appeared to be hastily arranged and did not include representatives from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. It has nevertheless prompted widespread speculation about what may have been discussed and the meeting’s wider meaning. Such interest reflects its host’s apparently ever increasing prominence in international affairs.

The UAE's early September announcement that it had set up a federal gambling regulator is a further sign of how the competition between regional economies is pushing them to diversify into areas that would previously have been regarded as too sensitive or even taboo.

Even before the new Gaza war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate had been hostile, as shown in analysis of the International Monetary Fund's new reports on the global outlook and regional economic performance.

Iranian officials have in recent days reiterated their determination to hold presidential elections on schedule on 18 June, although the voting may have to be extended to a second day given the expectation that the coronavirus pandemic will still have impacts well into next year. It is likely to be an unusual campaign, with a ban on public meetings.

President Ebrahim Raisi took his oath of office in the Majlis-e Shura-ye Eslami (parliament) on 5 August in the presence of Judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei and Expediency Council. Raisi’s credentials as president-elect were endorsed by Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the days before his inauguration – an event that highlighted many of the weaknesses of Iran’s international position, but also its potential to improve the situation.

British Prime Minister David Cameron was back in the UAE for the third time in as many years on 16 November, this time heading to Dubai just ahead of the 17-21 November Dubai Airshow (see page 14). There was immediate political gain to be had from the UAE’s deals with Airbus, worth more than $60bn. A380 wings are designed and assembled at UK sites in Filton and Broughton, part of an Airbus programme worth around $24bn to the UK economy; Cameron has made considerable noise about revitalising relationships with the Gulf, and was able to conclude that the new deals resulted from this effort.

The Gulf Co-operation Council states are in a more delicate and divided condition than they have been for decades – a set of circumstances which presents significant opportunities for Iran. However, understanding how and where Tehran might try to exploit their discomfort is as difficult as ever. An analysis of Iran’s understanding of its key enemies’ weaknesses and the Iranian military machine’s most relevant capabilities might help.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal has again shown his capacity to express Saudi policy concerns that go beyond the platitudes that too often pass for political discourse in the Gulf, this time discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and interference in regional conflict zones. Turki speaks with authority,

There was a lull in the speculation over the potential bombing of Iran by the United States or - more likely - its ally Israel, with the world transfixed by Barak Obama's victory in the US presidential election. Talk of significant offensive action against Tehran became intense during the late summer, with two theories circulating on the eventuality of a strike to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities and perhaps other targets. One theory was that the outgoing Bush administration would sanction a strike as its last neo-conservative hurrah; and, two, that Israel would be emboldened to act. In September, UK daily The Guardian, added to the debate by publishing details of documents showing how Washington had sought to rein in Israeli hawks who were ready to attack.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad garnered moral backing during his mid-January voyage around five of Latin America’s ‘anti-imperialist’ states, but he seems to have come away with little material support to counter Iran’s growing crisis of international isolation – underlined on 23 January, when European Union foreign ministers agreed on the much-anticipated embargo on Iranian oil imports (effective from 1 July).

Bahrain’s legally registered political groups are working to shore up their vote and persuade their constituencies they remain worthy of support ahead of National Assembly and municipal elections scheduled for this year, probably November. Much attention has been paid to parties supported by the Shia majority, led by Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society, which holds 17 of the 40 Majlis Al-Nawab (Chamber of Deputies) seats.

The decision by President Donald Trump to effectively refrain from intervening in a meaningful way in Middle East affairs – upending decades of United States policy – continues to have significant ramifications for the Gulf. As former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia Sir John Jenkins wrote recently in Arab News: “We are watching the political geography of the Middle East being reshaped before our eyes.” Events in recent weeks bear out his point, particularly in relation to Saudi Arabia.