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The tribes of Kuwait, which constitute up to 60% of the country’s citizens, are becoming increasingly important political and economic actors. Often feeling shut out of the lucrative market for government contracts, they are looking for changes which the Al-Sabah leadership finds hard to deliver. GSN investigates a major social force in the complex Kuwaiti political environment.

The Amiri Diwan has finally begun appointing its officials, following significant delays after the ascension of Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah last September. The structure remains much the same as before, with Ali Jarrah Al-Sabah as minister for Amiri Diwan affairs and Mohammed Abdullah Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah as deputy minister. Most importantly, former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah – a central figure in political discord – remains the top advisor for the ruling family, signalling continuity at the top of the political system and potentially further battles.

While analysts were puzzling over who would succeed Sultan Qaboos, Sayyid Haitham Bin Tariq was quietly drawing up plans for the personnel and policies he would need if – and when – he took over from the ailing  ruler. GSN understands that the recent spate of key appointments and policy announcements are the fruit of thinking that evolved while the sultan’s uncle, who died one year ago, was still alive. These moves are refashioning Oman as Haitham would like – with the prospect of a few more eye-catching announcements to come as the sultan completes the initial implementation of his plans.

The government and ruling family continue to struggle with the parallel challenges of a restive parliament and low oil revenues. Prime minister Sheikh Sabah finally named his new cabinet on 2 March, some seven weeks after the last one resigned, but MPs remain restive and fresh elections are a strong possibility.

King Salman Bin Abdelaziz on 31 August issued a royal order retiring Joint Forces commander Lieutenant General Prince Fahd Bin Turki Bin Abdelaziz. His son Al-Jouf deputy governor Prince Abdelaziz was also removed from his post.

Control of the Asir region has fluctuated between different groups over the centuries. By the 1830s, the Al-Ayed dynasty was in control, until the area was captured by the Ottomans in the late 1860s. Saudi Arabia’s founder King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) brought Asir under his direct rule in the early 1920s.

A hydrocarbons law in Iraq is in the offing, which could provide a stable revenue-sharing platform for years to come, but big obstacles remain to be resolved, leaving Iraqi Kurds in political and financial limbo, while the Kurdish regional oil industry stutters even as big gas developments are being promoted.

Kuwait has all but left behind its former status as a pre-eminent hub of regional diplomacy, as the leadership is widely perceived to have walked away from its role as mediator in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and its neighbours. Concerned by this apparent inaction on the regional stage, GSN has been asking: why has Kuwait apparently retired from playing such a significant diplomatic role?

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.

The Iranian authorities’ harsh crackdown on the protesters appears to be having an impact, with far fewer public demonstrations now being reported. Thousands have been arrested and at least four protestors have been hanged following what critics have called sham trials.

The failure of Yemen’s warring parties to renew their truce in October is regarded by many observers as a sign of both the increasing strength of the Houthi rebel group and a failure of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to resolve its own internal differences.

Since the six-month ceasefire in Yemen ended in early October, Houthi forces have launched a series of drone attacks on energy infrastructure targets. To date, they have caused minimal damage, but the rebel group showed during the summer that it has a large stock of weapons at its disposal and more strikes seem likely.

Yemen’s Sunni Islamist party Al-Islah is facing mounting challenges, as southerners demand full implementation of the 2019 Riyadh Agreement – under which the Southern Transitional Council (STC) was recognised as the legitimate representative of the southern people – and Houthis escalate their campaign across Marib and Taiz.

GSN Risk Grade: B↓2↓ PM grilling: A grilling of Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah over alleged irregularities in running state affairs, including embezzlement of public funds, is due to take place in the National Assembly (parliament) on 29 March.

Tensions between leadership rivals in Mahra and Socotra are rising, as fighting between Houthi forces and those of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government intensifies in Marib and threatens to spill over into the few regions that have not seen major fighting, specifically Hadhramaut and Mahra.