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Delays in US government approval for major fighter jet sales to three Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states are due to foreign policy debates in Washington, according to comments by a senior Pentagon official and politicians across the partisan divide. Deals to sell 36 Boeing F-15 fighter jets to Qatar for $4bn and 24 Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to Kuwait for $3bn, along with a sale of as many as 18 Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcons to Bahrain, have been stalled for well over a year (or more than two years, depending on which version one accepts), causing frustration among suppliers and customers.

The Gulf Co-operation Council states are in a more delicate and divided condition than they have been for decades – a set of circumstances which presents significant opportunities for Iran. However, understanding how and where Tehran might try to exploit their discomfort is as difficult as ever. An analysis of Iran’s understanding of its key enemies’ weaknesses and the Iranian military machine’s most relevant capabilities might help.

Interior minister Mohammed Salem Al-Ghabban resigned on 5 July following a suicide car bombing in Baghdad that killed more than 250 people. His resignation was approved by prime minister Haider Al-Abadi, who promoted a deputy minister to take over the Ministry of Interior (MoI). Abadi subsequently relieved Lieutenant General Abdulamir Al-Shimmari of his position as Operations Commander in Baghdad, along with the heads of the capital’s intelligence and security departments.

Reports from Oman that an Emirati spy ring was operating in the Sultanate cast bilateral relations between Gulf neighbours in an unusually negative light. Analysts have expounded a range of theories to explain the affair, from an Emirati royal keen to lead an Oman-UAE confederation to envy of Muscat’s budding relationships with international powers

Landowners may have hoped that the abrupt dismissal of housing minister Shwaish Al-Dhwaihi in March, barely a month after he indicated that a tax on unused urban lands was in the offing, was something of a reprieve. Known as ‘white lands’, the vacant plots within city limits are seen as a major contributor to the housing crisis, with their owners accused of holding on to them for financial gain, instead of building much-needed homes. But they were swiftly disabused of any such interpretation when on 23 March, with new minister Essam Bin Saad Bin Said’s feet barely under the table, the cabinet affirmed that the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA) would “urgently” develop the mechanisms needed to put some form of a tax in place.

A majority of Saudi Arabia’s ruling elite has apparently retained a glacial calm amid global uncertainty as to how and why crude prices have been allowed to slump. The oil price has fallen by over one-third in H2 2014 – to a five-year low of just under $66/bbl for January delivery Brent at the time of writing – in events that have further loosened what was left of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) control of world oil markets. Saudi leaders and their allies – led by the three other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Opec members, the UAE, Kuwait and (in recognition of recent moves towards rapprochement) Qatar – have focused on traditional concerns, such as maintaining market share.

Following the suicide bombing at Kuwait’s Al-Imam Al-Sadiq mosque, interior ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) held an extraordinary meeting in Kuwait on 2 July. The meeting was attended by all six interior ministers: Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef Al-Saud (Saudi Arabia), Lieutenant-General Sheikh Saif Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (UAE), Sheikh Abdullah Bin Nasser Bin Khalifa Al-Thani (Qatar), Sheikh Mohammed Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah (Kuwait), Sheikh Rashid Bin Abdullah Al-Khalifa (Bahrain) and Hamoud Bin Faisal Al-Busaidi (Oman), as well as GCC secretary-general Abdul Latif Bin Rashid Al-Zayani.

As GSN has long reported, the UAE has an unparalleled record in the region as a force contributor to international military missions (GSN 906/1, 811/5). The UAE undertook ambitious peacekeeping operations relatively soon after the federation was formed.

To mark the announcement of the opening of cinemas in Saudi Arabia for the first time in 35 years, the General Entertainment Authority (GEA) invited Hollywood legend John Travolta to visit the kingdom. According to a GEA media advisory issued on 13 December, the actor “will experience first-hand the positive transformation the country is witnessing, in light of the crown prince’s vision, and he will share his experience with the world”.

While Iraqi vice president Tariq Al-Hashemi remains in exile in Turkey, there is no chance of the death sentence imposed on him in absentia by a Baghdad court being carried out. In spite of his declaration of “absolute innocence” and the wave of violence which followed the verdict, it appears that Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has achieved his basic aim of neutralising a powerful opponent, although not without cost.

The economic implications of the dispute could be high for Qatar, although that depends on how long it lasts. Any sustained blockade of its border with Saudi Arabia or its shipping connections with the UAE will disrupt the construction programme for the 2022 World Cup and other infrastructure schemes. Food shortages, particularly during Ramadan, when people are prone to buying large quantities of food, could become an issue – most of Qatar’s food is imported via Saudi Arabia and other goods are often delivered via the UAE’s Jebel Ali port.

Dubai police chief major general Dhahi Khalfan Tamim has recently been active in several areas, calling for legislative powers for an elected federal chamber, speaking out on corruption and leading a campaign to improve the UAE’s human rights record and image.

Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani’s official visit to London on 22-24 July, was dogged by allegations that Qatar’s opponents had attempted to set up demonstrations by paying actors to attend protests in the city centre. Posters also appeared at prominent sites around the city criticising Qatar’s payment of a ransom to secure the release of royals kidnapped in Iraq in December 2015.Among the protestors was Khalid Al-Hail, who last September organised a sparsely-attended conference in London which was focused on criticising the Qatari leadership.

Britain’s ambassador to Qatar, Michael O’Neill, is unexpectedly leaving after just a year in the job. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) confirmed O’Neill, posted to Doha in May 2012, would go in early June. “He is leaving Doha for personal reasons. A successor will be announced in due course,” a spokesman said.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal has again shown his capacity to express Saudi policy concerns that go beyond the platitudes that too often pass for political discourse in the Gulf, this time discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and interference in regional conflict zones. Turki speaks with authority,