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As the National Dialogue Conference nears its conclusion, the deepening rift between Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the rest of the General People’s Congress (GPC) has left Hadi looking increasingly politically isolated. Hadi has been accused by former president – and GPC leader – Ali Abdullah Saleh and his allies of betraying the GPC by making too many concessions in backroom negotiations with the Sunni Islamist party Al-Islah; the GPC mainstream is opposing the extension of Hadi’s presidency, and wants him removed as secretary-general of the party.

Democratic Party senator for Connecticut Chris Murphy held talks with foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February. “It’s dangerous not to talk to adversaries, [especially] amidst a cycle of escalation,” Murphy later tweeted. He said he told Zarif that Iran should control its proxies in Iraq who might attack US forces and allies there, release US citizens being detained in Iran and end the Houthi blockage of humanitarian aid in Yemen.

Shiite Houthi militias have continued their advance against Al-Qaeda-linked militants in central Yemen, as newly appointed Yemeni Prime Minister Khaled Bahah struggles to form a government in Sanaa. Employing a strategy that relies largely on treaties with local tribes, the Houthis have been able to push hard against Ansar Al-Sharia (AAS), an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), in areas like the city of Radaa in Al-Bayda and Al-Odain and Al-Sadda in Ibb. Recruiting locals to man checkpoints vastly expands Houthi capacity, and also enables the group to bridge the sectarian divide in some Sunni areas (though this remains a challenge).

Tensions have again broken out into the open within the senior ranks of the Saudi royal family, with Prince Ahmed Bin Abdelaziz once more acting as the lightening rod for Al-Saud dissatisfaction with the often contentious rule of the Al-Salman. Prince Ahmed – the youngest of the ruling family’s ‘Sudairi Seven’ brothers – was recorded speaking to protestors outside his London residence on 4 September about his brother King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and the Yemen war.

After several months of the economic and diplomatic boycott, Qatar has learned some tough, but useful lessons, according to senior Qatari security sources who spoke to a GSN correspondent. Officials were deeply shocked by the move from the GCC-3 and the situation has led to a fundamental rethink of regional policy. “We learned a tough lesson: do not trust anyone,” said one senior military figure in Doha: “If Saudi Arabia treats us in this way then we have to walk cautious steps and not trust any Arab country”.

United Nations experts have urged Oman to release human rights defender Said Ali Said Jadad, who has been advocating for democratic reforms. In a statement issued by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (who is Jordanian Zeid Raad Al-Hussein), officials said Jadad had been detained on 21 January without an arrest warrant. He was due to appear in court in Muscat on charges of undermining the prestige of the state, incitement to sit-ins and demonstrations, stirring up sectarian strife and offending state officials.

Bahrain’s Court of Cassation has upheld the convictions of nine medical staff sentenced last year for their part in an anti government uprising

Politics: Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Qaboos, who deposed his father in a palace coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite, rather than his relatively small family. He was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent. Succession (likely to go to Taimur Bin Assad, son of Qaboos’s first cousin Assad Bin Tariq, or his brothers Haitham and Shihab).

In an attempt to put distance between Islam and the extremist views of the Islamic State jihadist group (ISIL), more than 120 Muslim scholars and leaders have published an open letter addressed to ISIL leader Ibrahim Awwad Al-Badri, better known by his alias Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. The letter – signed by Sunni religious authorities from 39 countries – attempts to debunk ISIL’s claim that its actions are based in Islam, detailing why the religion forbids such acts as killing the innocent, resorting to jihad without an appropriate purpose, mistreating Christians and many others.

A Bahraini criminal court released prominent Shiite opposition figure Khalil Al-Marzooq at the start of his trial on 24 October, but did not drop the charges against him (GSN 955/5). Al-Marzooq was arrested on 17 September and charged with inciting terrorist acts. He had been held in detention since his arrest. Al-Marzooq, a political assistant to the secretary-general of the Al-Wefaq opposition society, appeared in court in the presence of his lawyers and observers from several foreign embassies.According to a statement on the Al-Wefaq website, Al-Marzooq told the court that he had been mistreated while being transferred in handcuffs to the Public Prosecution Office, and that he was prevented from praying before his interrogation on 17 September. 


Tehran has complained loudly after Saudi Arabia denied visas to Iranian officials hoping to attend an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) at its headquarters in Jeddah on 3 February. The meeting was held at the request of the Palestinian Authority to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal put forward by United States President Donald Trump. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Abbas Mousavi said Iran had been invited to attend by OIC secretary-general Yousef Bin Ahmad Al-Othaimeen. Its delegation was to be led by deputy foreign minister Hossein Jaberi Ansari.

Iran and the four other countries bordering the Caspian Sea are to discuss the delineation of their territorial waters in Baku in November. Azeri foreign minister Elmar Mammadyarov said the meeting would be held at deputy foreign minister level, and would discuss a method of establishing direct baselines in the Caspian Sea to determine the territorial waters of the five coastal countries.

Former UK Middle East minister Alistair Burt has been appointed by the UAE Embassy in London as honorary chairman of the Emirates Society, set up in 2018 to enhance commercial and social links between the UAE and the UK.

Efforts to deepen relations between Baghdad and Gulf Co-operation Council countries continue apace, including wide-ranging talks with Kuwait and Oman’s decision to reopen its embassy in Baghdad. These developments are being encouraged by the United States and others in an effort to dilute economic and diplomatic ties between Iraq and Iran.The Kuwaiti-Iraqi Joint Committee’s seventh session was held on 11-12 May under the co-chairmanship of Kuwaiti foreign affairs minister Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah and his Iraqi counterpart Mohammed Ali Al-Hakim.

Diplomatic activity: Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said hosted both Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Muscat in October, in a surprising round of diplomatic activity. The two leaders arrived within days of each other; while details have remained secret, foreign affairs minister Yusuf Bin Alawi subsequently told a conference in Bahrain that “we offer ideas that may have some novelty and it is this novelty that may help the two parties to be ready to go forward”.