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Saudi Arabia Newsletter: The present urgent political concerns of Saudi Arabian leaders may be concentrated on the latest Iranian irruption into Iraqi territory,' but not so exclusively that the breakdown of the King Hussein-Yasser Arafat joint peace process is not a matter of equal pre-occupation for the Saudi government.

President Hassan Rouhani’s adept international diplomacy secured a quick win on the nuclear front, with the interim agreement signed by Tehran and the P5+1 on 24 November (GSN 959/1) paving the way for a scaling back of the crippling sanctions regime, and potentially an end to Iran’s years of isolation. But now he faces the arguably more onerous task of ensuring Iran’s opening to the West is not frustrated by domestic interests, headed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The latest phase of tensions in Hadhramaut involves UAE-backed factions competing with groups linked to Saudi Arabia.

Iran has taken a number of steps to make life easier for visitors to the Islamic republic and attract more foreign capital, in another effort to soften the blow of debilitating United States sanctions. On 23 June, President Hassan Rouhani issued instructions to the Ministry of Interior to stop placing entry and exit stamps in foreign nationals’ passports, lest they attract unwanted attention when crossing other frontiers. (This policy echoes the approach that has been long-used by Israel.)

Iran’s influential position in Iraq was on clear display in mid-March, during a three-day visit by President Hassan Rouhani designed to highlight the strong ties between the two countries in the face of United States sanctions on Iran. Iranian security forces have been a vital component of Iraq’s successful battle against Islamic State forces in recent years and Baghdad could now return the favour by providing an outlet for Iranian trade at a time when the Islamic Republic’s economy is struggling to cope with Washington’s reinvigorated trade embargo.

Analysis that suggested reformists and centrists had won the battle but maybe not the war in Iran’s Q1 16 elections was confirmed when 90-year-old Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, was elected to lead the Majles-e Khobregan (Assembly of Experts) on 24 May. He beat centrist Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini and conservative Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi. Local media reported that Jannati was re-elected by 51 of the assembly’s 88 members. The conservative cleric has chaired the Guardian Council since 1992; having been appointed by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in February 1980.

The overhaul of the upper ranks of Iran’s defence and security apparatus has continued this month, with Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointing Brigadier General Gholam Hossein Gheibparvar as commander of the Basij volunteer forces, in a decree issued on 7 December.It is the latest in a string of senior appointments within Iran’s military establishment this year. Among others, in June Major General Mohammad Bagheri was appointed as Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff, Iran’s highest military policy body, replacing the long-serving Major General Hassan Firouzabadi who had held the job since 1989.

Tehran is making a concerted effort to improve relations with Baku, following tensions between the two sides in 2021. Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have tended to be pragmatic rather than warm; Tehran has historically had better relations with Baku’s rival Armenia.

Brigadier General Hossein Salami was appointed commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on 21 April, replacing Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, who had been in post since 2007; Jafari was in effect demoted, being given a somewhat humiliating new role as head of an IRGC organisation charged with improving Islamic revolutionary education. The change of leadership came shortly after the United States designated the IRGC a terrorist organisation on 10 April.A number of other factors appear to be behind the move.

Tehran's concerns over the activities of Iranian anti-regime groups based in the Kurdistan region were sufficient for recently-appointed Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian to make talks on the issue with his federal Iraqi counterpart Qassem Al-Araji an early priority – and for veiled threats about cross-border action to shut down Iraq-based dissidents if Baghdad doesn't respond.

President Hassan Rouhani has not yet formally declared he will stand for re-election but remains the clear front-runner in Iran’s 19 May poll. The Reformist Policymaking Council headed by Mohammed-Reza Aref on 12 March said it would support Rouhani, following a unanimous vote. Other reformist candidates may yet put themselves forward – a sensible strategy in case the Shora-ye Negahban-e Qanun-e Assassi (Guardian Council) decides to block Rouhani from running, as it has intimated it might.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani's government has launched Iraq down a perilous fiscal path, with an extravagant three-year budget for 2023-25 which gained Council of Representatives (Majlis an-Nuwwab or parliament) approval.

GSN profiles eight candidates approved by Iran’s Guardian Council for the 14 June presidential election:
Mohammad Reza Aref, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohammad Gharazi, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, Saeed Jalili, Mohsen Rezaie, Hassan Rouhani, Ali Akbar Velayati

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani has had a busy diplomatic schedule since taking office on 27 October, with trips to Jordan on 21 November for talks with King Abdullah II, followed by a visit to Kuwait on 23 November to meet his counterpart Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah and Crown Prince Sheikh Meshaal Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. There has been speculation he may soon travel to Saudi Arabia too.

As presidential elections approach, on 18 June, attention will grow on which personality and faction succeeds Hassan Rouhani, head of government since 2013. But the most critical variable in Iran’s highly controlled democracy won’t change: the temporal power and (often very pragmatic) spiritual guidance of Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.