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In the presidential election scheduled for 18 June, Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely to favour a candidate who boasts a strong religious/security background, potentially with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) credentials. The level of opposition facing his preferred successor to Hassan Rouhani may be limited – while Khamenei’s military and clerical allies gain ground, it is likely no substantial moderate/reformist candidates will survive the Shura-ye Negahban (Guardian Council)’s pre-election vetting and liberal voters are increasingly disengaged from the process.

With Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) widely perceived to be ‘disassociating’ himself from the Yemen war, Saudi-watchers have for several months been speculating that his younger full brother, the 28-year-old Prince Khalid Bin Salman, will take up a place inside the Ministry of Defence and Aviation. An analyst based in the kingdom commented: “It is widely known that MBS is not known to spend time reading serious fare – political theory, philosophy or current affairs.

Iraq is buffeted by regional conflicts and domestic political and economic pressures; the dinar remains stressed and the population even more so. This is the first of a much-expanded series of GSN Risk management reports, in an online format intended to provide easy-to-access updates, analysis and contexts as a point of entry into this complex, often opaque region.

Kerman blast: Around 100 people were killed and nearly 300 injured in two explosions at a cemetery in the southern city of Kerman on 3 January, at an event marking the fourth anniversary of IRGC Quds force leader Qasem Soleimani’s death in a United States drone strike.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) is charging ahead on multiple domestic and international fronts, raising eyewatering sums from princes and others accused of corruption, with apparent public support but amid deep concerns from other factions in the ruling family and critics abroad. GSN has heard unconfirmed reports that at least one of the most high-profile ‘guests’ in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton has been put on suicide watch, suggesting events could yet get out of hand.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) on 8 November received the United Nations secretary-general’s special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths in Riyadh. The meeting gave Griffiths an opportunity to congratulate MBS “on the success of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reach the signing of [the] Riyadh Agreement between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council”, as the official statement put it.

Attending the World Cup in Qatar and lending his backing to everything from major tourism schemes in isolated corners of the kingdom to mega-airports and yet more youth-focused entertainment, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has made himself central to promoting a more dynamic image for Saudi Arabia, even as his regime frightens most of its critics into silence.

A relatively rare phone call between Bahrain’s King Hamad and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim on 3 March followed signs of progress being made on the long-delayed Friendship Bridge project to create a physical link between the sometimes feuding neighbours.

The contradictory signs emanating from Riyadh over recent weeks – of socially liberalising reforms, a likely easing of some economic reform targets and a fresh crack-down on ‘unhelpful’ commentators – are often hard to make sense of. But within the kingdom they are being read as meaning just one thing: that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has his eyes firmly on the ultimate prize of taking over from his father and whatever needs to be done to ease his path will be done.

Among the third-generation princes to watch, deputy prime minister and Crown Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz’s eldest son, Prince Saud Bin Nayef, is an assistant to his father, having spent many years as ambassador to Spain (appointed 2003), following a ten-year stint as deputy governor of Eastern Province under Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd (GSN 736/5). In July 2011, he was called home (GSN 904/3).

Saudi Arabia is leading a fresh effort from the Gulf to assert its regional influence in an attempt to bring the Gaza war to an end, there has been no indication that Israel would consider reducing the intensity of its relentless bombing campaign as it seeks vengeance for the brutal Hamas assault of 7 October.

Just days after his visit to Russia (see page 4), Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) flew to Paris for an official visit during which a number of agreements were signed – including a $470m Saudi purchase of Airbus helicopters, and confirmation that Saudi Arabian Airlines is to take delivery of 50 Airbus planes in a deal worth around $8bn. MBS has been travelling quite a lot in recent months as he finds his feet in top-tier politics, attending the United States-Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit at Camp David in May, going to Qatar in June and holding talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 18 June.

The UAE's new National Media Office in Abu Dhabi adds another layer of 'Bani Fatima' reporting to Presidential Court minister Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and chaired by President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed’s nephew and son-in-law Sheikh Zayed Bin Hamdan Al-Nahyan.

A flurry of announcements by GCC leaders about energy transitions and industrial strategies suggest major shifts are under way, if not always at the pace that global consultancies, uncritical media and ruling family boosters claim. As they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic and seek an exit from the Yemen war, core royal leaderships are applying a distinctly top-down approach to centrally plan their way towards a new global role.

General Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ), the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the armed forces, has already taken on day-to-day presidential duties, as the health of UAE President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan deteriorates. It has long been assumed that the presidency will be his on his half-brother’s death. The first president of the UAE, MBZ’s father, Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, made clear his intentions when he named MBZ deputy crown prince in 2003; when Sheikh Zayed died the following year, Sheikh Khalifa became ruler of Abu Dhabi and MBZ his heir.