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The contradictory signs emanating from Riyadh over recent weeks – of socially liberalising reforms, a likely easing of some economic reform targets and a fresh crack-down on ‘unhelpful’ commentators – are often hard to make sense of. But within the kingdom they are being read as meaning just one thing: that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has his eyes firmly on the ultimate prize of taking over from his father and whatever needs to be done to ease his path will be done.

Among the third-generation princes to watch, deputy prime minister and Crown Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz’s eldest son, Prince Saud Bin Nayef, is an assistant to his father, having spent many years as ambassador to Spain (appointed 2003), following a ten-year stint as deputy governor of Eastern Province under Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd (GSN 736/5). In July 2011, he was called home (GSN 904/3).

Saudi Arabia is leading a fresh effort from the Gulf to assert its regional influence in an attempt to bring the Gaza war to an end, there has been no indication that Israel would consider reducing the intensity of its relentless bombing campaign as it seeks vengeance for the brutal Hamas assault of 7 October.

Just days after his visit to Russia (see page 4), Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) flew to Paris for an official visit during which a number of agreements were signed – including a $470m Saudi purchase of Airbus helicopters, and confirmation that Saudi Arabian Airlines is to take delivery of 50 Airbus planes in a deal worth around $8bn. MBS has been travelling quite a lot in recent months as he finds his feet in top-tier politics, attending the United States-Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit at Camp David in May, going to Qatar in June and holding talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 18 June.

The UAE's new National Media Office in Abu Dhabi adds another layer of 'Bani Fatima' reporting to Presidential Court minister Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and chaired by President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed’s nephew and son-in-law Sheikh Zayed Bin Hamdan Al-Nahyan.

A flurry of announcements by GCC leaders about energy transitions and industrial strategies suggest major shifts are under way, if not always at the pace that global consultancies, uncritical media and ruling family boosters claim. As they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic and seek an exit from the Yemen war, core royal leaderships are applying a distinctly top-down approach to centrally plan their way towards a new global role.

General Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ), the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the armed forces, has already taken on day-to-day presidential duties, as the health of UAE President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan deteriorates. It has long been assumed that the presidency will be his on his half-brother’s death. The first president of the UAE, MBZ’s father, Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, made clear his intentions when he named MBZ deputy crown prince in 2003; when Sheikh Zayed died the following year, Sheikh Khalifa became ruler of Abu Dhabi and MBZ his heir.

The Saudi government’s Public Investment Fund has been signing contracts with more lobbying and communications specialists, as it continues to face political scrutiny over its investments in the United States.

The UAE held an inaugural strategic dialogue with the United States on 20 October, led by foreign affairs and international co-operation minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Ajman Ruler Sheikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al-Nuaimi launched the Ajman Principles document in early March, covering areas such as sustainability, inclusivity, accountability and government agility.

The UAE president's younger brother Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed is furthering Abu Dhabi's media – and soft power – reach with investments in new digital outlets, adding to his extensive portfolio of business interests and public appointments.

Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) is the eldest of the Bani Fatima, the six sons of Fatima Bint Mubarak Al-Kitbi, Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan’s most prominent wife. It has long been a formidable group, and MBZ’s succession would seem to seal its rise. The other five full brothers are all in positions of considerable power, both in the political establishment, and also within the small group of powerful companies which dominate the economy. They are: Hamdan Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Born in 1963, Hamdan Bin Zayed has been the ruler’s representative in the Western Region since 2009.

The recent flurry of senior appointments by Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, including the naming of his brother Sheikh Mansour as federal vice president, highlights the extent to which Abu Dhabi controls all the main levers of power in the UAE – and its competition with Dubai for commercial, as well as political, dominance.

Politics: Established in 1971, the federation of seven emirates – Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al-Quwain is economically liberal and progressive, but remains politically conservative. Ultimate control is held by the emirate rulers, led by oil-rich, politically savvy Abu Dhabi and regional/global commercial hub Dubai. The federal government has legislative and executive jurisdiction over sectors including foreign affairs, security, defence, education, health, currency, electricity and immigration. Each emirate retains considerable economic independence and control over mineral rights and revenues.

Considerable speculation persists about the government reshuffle announced by federal Prime Minister and Vice President, and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) on 11 May.