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The level of violence in Eastern Province has escalated since the start of the year. Recent reports of militant provocation of security forces have given some credence to the government narrative of outside interference, or at the very least suggest an increasingly organised indigenous opposition

The authorities in Bahrain have long sought definitive proof that Iran and its Gulf proxy network, Hizbollah Al-Hejaz, are actively undertaking militant actions inside Bahrain. Based on contacts within Bahrain’s security services, GSN has periodically reported the thin gruel of evidence that has built up over time, largely consisting of 1990s-era arms caches unearthed by new building activity or occasional evidence of Bahrainis travelling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq to receive training or money from Tehran’s intelligence services.

The one-upmanship between US and Iranian naval forces has intensified, forcing both sides to look closely at their operational and tactical thinking. Since Iran reorganised its naval forces in 2007, its thinking on a naval war with the US has become increasingly sophisticated. The axiom of the new thinking (as expressed by Iranian leaders and in professional service magazines produced by the armed forces) is that symmetric force-on-force encounters between large US and Iranian vessels would be a losing game.

The level of US forces in the Gulf is the highest in more than a decade, with carriers to display power and an increase in demining vessels to make sure the Strait of Hormuz is clear. But the aim seems to be to pressure Iran politically, rather than prepare for military action.

Qatar is looking to buy 24 attack helicopters and associated parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $3bn. The US Defence Security Co-operation Agency said in a 12 July statement that it had notified Congress of a possible military sale of 24 AH-64D Apache Block III Longbow attack helicopters, as well as equipment including engines, night-vision sensors, fire control radars, missile warning systems, laser detecting sets, radar jammers, 30mm automatic chain guns, hellfire missile launchers and missiles.

A US Navy supply ship fired on a fishing boat just off the coast of the UAE on 16 July, according to UAE state news agency Wam.

Saudi Arabia is increasingly active among Sunni Arab tribes in Iraq, accelerating their involvement in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Gulf financiers – with some US support – are trying to outflank Baghdad’s own attempts to woo the tribes.

Saudi armed forces have been put on alert due to the “critical situation” in the region, according to a leaked royal memo seen by GSN. Saudi officials would not verify the document’s authenticity, but it seems to bear the markings of King Abdullah’s diwan, now the node for strategic decision-making.

The prospect that the Royal Saudi Land Forces might buy hundreds of battle tanks is exciting European manufacturers, despite controversy in Germany over such sales (GSN 911/16, 909/15, 908/9, 904/9).

A suicide bomber killed senior Yemen military commander Major General Salem Ali Qatan in Aden on 18 June.

Ageing inventories, the threat of Iran and a widening set of commitments are setting the scene for a long-overdue Saudi naval investment. GSN’s defence contacts say the time may finally have come for Riyadh’s first major fleet replacement in a decade

The presence of a major Al Qaeda affiliate to the east is another factor that could make a full-fledged jihad in Syria more likely. Yet there has been surprisingly little evidence of Iraqi involvement in the conflict.

The war in Syria is spreading to Lebanon and fitting increasingly neatly into the narrative of a broader Arab-Persian cold war, with Sunni fighters in Syria and Lebanon using the language of a sectarian ‘clash of civilisations’.

With UN envoy Kofi Annan’s peace effort on the verge of collapse, Sunni Arab and Turkoman opponents of the Assad regime are becoming ever more radicalised, and foreign jihadists are looking to add to Syria’s poisonous blend of communal and factional conflicts. A multifaceted conflict is unfolding which could push Syria into a full civil war, with the capacity to spread sectarian conflict that is filling an increasingly polarised region with alarm

Lebanon is a second major source of Sunni fighters after Syria’s home-grown and returning jihadists in the current conflict. In another example of ‘blowback’, the Syrian regime is now paying for its fostering of Sunni terrorist factions within northern Lebanon.