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As it focuses on what many in Washington view as Iran’s uncomfortable rise up the international pecking order, US analysts are reappraising old ideas about detaching Syria from the so-called Shia Crescent linking Iran and Hizbollah in Lebanon. This so-called ‘Wedge Theory’ argued that a strategic deal with Syria, most likely involving peace with Israel and international rehabilitation, could be used to induce Damascus to end its strategic alliance with Iran and cut off one avenue of support for Hizbollah and Hamas.

Iran | Syria | Lebanon
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Eleven alleged Al-Qaeda fighters arrested just north of the Yemeni border in early April were experienced jihadists who carried with them the components for a staggering 35 suicide vests. This raises the alarming prospect that jihadist activity may be poised to burst out again, with this group emerging as the tip of the iceberg as Saudi security forces set to work investigating their ties in the search for a suspected network of safe houses and arms caches.

Saudi Arabia
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The United Arab Emirates Naval Forces’ Baynunah corvette is moving towards readiness for launch in summer 2009. The first vessel, shown by French shipbuilder Constructions Mécaniques de Normandie (CMN) at IDEX 2009, was declared structurally complete and installed with propulsion machinery in March. Sensors and systems are now being installed and will be tested in sea trials this autumn.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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The 15 March suicide bombing of Korean tourists in Yemen and the 18 March follow-up attack on a foreign convoy in Sana’a have underlined the danger of trying to draw a line under Yemen’s terrorist threat.

Yemen
Issue 850 - 27 March 2009

Portrait of a bomber

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The Shibam bomber, Abdulrahman Mehdi al-Ajiri, has been quickly profiled, giving an interesting insight into the new generation of Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Al-Ajari was born in the Al-Salam (Peace) district of Sanaa in 1990. He spent most of his life in the Al-Jamhori Hospital area in Taiz, a city associated with strong recruitment of Islamist militants for the Afghan jihad in the 1980s and 1990s. Al-Ajiri is not the only

Yemen
Issue 849 - 13 March 2009

Israeli lobby gets Freeman's scalp

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Veteran diplomat, linguist and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chas Freeman, has withdrawn from consideration for the position of National Intelligence Council chairman (GSN 848/4). Only two weeks ago, director of National Intelligence

Saudi Arabia | Israel
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The cadre of politicians that loosely follow Moqtada Al-Sadr’s leadership did surprisingly well in the provincial elections, given they were largely written off as being politically splintered and militarily humbled after 18 months of pummelling by government forces, operated by their rivals and supported by the United States.

Iraq
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President Ali Abdullah Saleh in February travelled to Russia for high-profile talks with President Dmitry Medvedev, his mentor Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. While talks mainly centred on arms deals, Saleh also met the head of Russian oil giant Gazprom. Yemeni state media reported officials signed a '$1bn deal' to buy Russian equipment, including fighter planes, helicopters and tanks. This included the purchase of MiG-29 planes, helicopters, T-80 and T-72 tanks, and armoured vehicles. Local observers have long speculated that Yemen could be one of several regional states to host Russian bases in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean,

Yemen
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The Obama administration’s decision to attempt diplomatic re-engagement with Iran provides a moment of excruciating discomfort for many US politicians and generals. GSN has been exposed to some of the thinking going on inside the Pentagon, as well as in the think tanks and State Department offices charged with charting a path through this dangerous territory.

Iran
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The UAE on 24 February took its latest plunge into the global defence market, formally signing a letter of request for $3.4bn worth of US military hardware from The Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin. The deal was the centrepiece of the ninth International Defence Conference and Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi. Reflecting the oil emirate’s leading role

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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The UAE has deliberately stepped up its rhetoric to support US policy in the region while the Obama administration is settling in and preparing to receive its first briefings on Centcom’s region-wide assessment of Gulf policy. Personal and collaborative technology relations between the two militaries have become very close, even on such thorny policy issues as Iran’s nuclear programme.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 847 - 13 February 2009

UAE talks tough on missile defence

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Reflecting growing bilateral ties in the sphere of defence planning, the US and UAE scripts on the seriousness of Iran’s nuclear programme are quickly coming into sync. Just over a month since the UAE Armed Forces Officers Club in Abu Dhabi hosted the first Middle East Missile and Air Defence Conference, a government-run think-tank issued statements that were unusually blunt in describing the nuclear threat to the region.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Reports of an upcoming sale of the Russian-built SA-20 systems to Iran will focus Israeli minds on the need to acquire F-22 fighter aircraft technology, whose export is currently banned by US law

Israel | Iran
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Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.

Kuwait | Iraq
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The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar's exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate's coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN's periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran's powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a 'wild west' feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts.

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