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Summit disunity: The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit, held in Riyadh on 9 December, was overshadowed by the long-running crisis pitting Qatar against the GCC-3 of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Doha sent a low-ranking delegation, led by minister of state for foreign affairs Sultan Bin Saad Al-Muraikhi. Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah was most explicit in his calls for the rift to be healed, telling the summit “we face a serious threat to the unity of our position” and that “unfortunately the world is beginning to see us as a shaken entity”.

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Parliamentary election constrained: Some 365,000 Bahraini men and women were eligible to vote for the 293 candidates who ran for the 40-seat Majlis Al-Nuwab (Council of Representatives) in elections held on 24 November. The authorities announced a turnout of 67% – far higher than the 53% recorded at the last election in 2014. Only seven candidates gained enough votes in the first round, necessitating a second round on 1 December.

Bahrain
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Peace talks resume: Talks between Yemen’s warring opponents began in Stockholm, Sweden on 6 December, the first such discussions for more than two years. The Houthi delegation was led by Mohammed Abdul Salam, while foreign minister Khalid Al-Yamani led the team from President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government. The talks were preceded by the evacuation of 50 injured Houthi fighters from Yemen to Oman on 3 December, as a confidence-building measure.

Yemen
Issue 1070 - 29 November 2018

UAE: Economic stimulus packages, UAQ pay

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Abu Dhabi fees: In an effort to try and boost private sector activity, the Abu Dhabi Executive Council has agreed to waive local government fees for any new commercial licences issued in the emirate for the next two years, starting from 1 December. The Executive Council also cancelled the fees for 75 basic municipality services and reduced them on a further 23 services by up to 50%. The decisions are the latest element of a Dh50bn ($13.6bn) economic stimulus package called Ghadan 21, which was announced in June.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Prisoner pardons: The UAE defused a damaging row with the UK on 26 November by issuing a presidential pardon to British researcher Matthew Hedges, who had been given a life sentence for espionage a few days earlier. The pardon was one of 785 issued in the name of President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, part of the usual wave of early releases announced ahead of National Day on 2 December.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Khashoggi affair: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October continues to cause difficulties for Riyadh and for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) in particular. Key western allies appear to have been angered as much by the amateurish attempts by Riyadh to deny responsibility for the journalist’s fate as they are by the murder itself. The Saudi heir’s reputation has been undermined by a steady drip-feed of leeks from the Turkish government and forensic reporting by American newspapers which have identified the key individuals involved as being close to MBS.

Saudi Arabia
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IMF review: Doha has received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund following a visit in late October/early November. IMF team leader Mohammed El-Qorchi said the country’s economy “continues to strengthen,” with non-hydrocarbon output growing by 6% in H1 2018. Overall GDP growth for the period was 2.3%, including a 1.6% decline in the oil and gas sector, but economic growth is predicted to rise to 3.1% in 2019.

Qatar
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Parliament reconvenes: Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah reopened the National Assembly (parliament) on 30 October. The session was due to start with a grilling of prime minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, but the motion was withdrawn by MPs Mohammed Al-Mutair and Shuaib Al-Muwaizri the day before. In a further sign of compromise, the government has reinstated citizenship to a number of opposition figures and said it is willing to discuss the status of bidoon (stateless residents) later in the session.

Kuwait
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Diplomatic activity: Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said hosted both Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Muscat in October, in a surprising round of diplomatic activity. The two leaders arrived within days of each other; while details have remained secret, foreign affairs minister Yusuf Bin Alawi subsequently told a conference in Bahrain that “we offer ideas that may have some novelty and it is this novelty that may help the two parties to be ready to go forward”.

Oman
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Presidential rift: The process of electing a new federal president of Iraq – by convention a role given to a Kurd – exposed deepening divisions between the two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Since 2005 the two parties have divided the spoils in Iraq, with the PUK holding the federal presidency while the KDP takes the presidency of the Kurdistan Region.

Iraq
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Presidential election: Moderate Kurdish candidate Barham Salih was elected federal president on 2 October, heralding the potential end to a long period of political uncertainty following elections in May. The post of president is typically held by a Kurd as part of efforts to provide a political balance among the country’s various sectarian groups. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) candidate Salih easily beat his main rival Fuad Hussein of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), securing 219 votes to Hussein’s 22.

Iran
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Sanctions take effect: US sanctions are again having a marked impact on the economy, with inflation rising and the rial under pressure in foreign exchange markets. This is reflected in the political arena, where hardliners are mounting a sustained campaign against President Hassan Rouhani and his team. Economic affairs and finance minister Massoud Karbasian and co-operatives, labour and social welfare minister Ali Rabiei were voted out of office by MPs in August. However, Rouhani has been responding.

Iran
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IDB/OECD back Yemen redevelopment: The war is far from over, but the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has launched a project with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to rebuild institutional capacity at the national and local level in post-conflict Yemen. The scheme is being supported with funding from the G7’s Deauville Partnership MENA Transition Fund and is being run in co-ordination with the Yemeni Ministry of Planning and International Co-operation.

Issue 1065 - 07 September 2018

GCC: Omani intervention, EU, Yemen

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Oman pushes for resolution: The GCC remains deeply divided over the dispute between the GCC-3 and Egypt and Qatar. As GSN has observed, the crisis is not yet terminal for the GCC, but it is highly divisive. Oman has re-engaged with efforts to resolve the dispute, with minister responsible for foreign affairs Youssef Bin Alawi Bin Abdullah offering an optimistic assessment following talks with his Bahraini counterpart Sheikh Khaled Bin Ahmad Al-Khalifa in Salalah on 4 September.

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Output is rising: Despite concerns over declining Iranian output ahead of sanctions, Opec’s crude production rose in August to its highest level this year, as the cartel’s 15 members (including recent recruit Republic of Congo) produced 32.74m b/d, Bloomberg reported. This was 420,000 b/d more than in July, representing a significant step towards the goal of adding 1m b/d to the market agreed in June.