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A tougher US stance on Hormuz may usher in a period of greater risk – especially if mounting economic pressures make Iran feel it has little to lose by picking a fight at sea. The USS Abraham Lincoln, one of the US Navy’s flagship aircraft carriers, left the Gulf on 14 February following a 20-day “freedom of navigation” exercise.

Ever-prominent in regional diplomacy, Qatar has also encouraged dialogue with Tehran. State minister for foreign affairs Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah told the Munich Security Conference on 5 February that tightening sanctions would aggravate the situation.

Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al Said gave a rare interview to the western media in late January, choosing Fox News to put forward his message that Iran is far from seeking war with Washington. Qaboos has given occasional interviews to Kuwaiti media in the past decade but, according to Fox News, his four-hour discussion with journalist Judith Miller was the first in-depth interview with a US reporter since 1997.

Amid all the talk of war on Iran, it is worth noting that Israeli deputy foreign minister Daniel Ayalon took the time last week to distance his country from any notion of imminent conflict.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has made his long awaited exit, but it is a country in chaos he leaves behind. Militant gains in the south, street protests, gun battles, assassinations and air force mutinies do not build a picture of a nation ripe for political transition, but rather of a Yemen imploding

The 11 January assassination of nuclear procurement expert Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan is the latest string of killings targeting scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear sector

Amid all the talk of war on Iran, it is worth noting that Israeli deputy foreign minister Daniel Ayalon took the time last week to distance his country from any notion of imminent conflict.

The Obama administration is cultivating defence ties with GCC states, continuing major arms sales initiated under George W Bush and stepping up military exercises in the region

In the wake of the 18 December US troop withdrawal, 2012 opened with the deadliest bombings for more than a year, killing scores of people in and around predominantly Shia targets in Baghdad and the Al Nasiriyah region.

Whether or not Tehran is bluffing, its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has gained enough amplitude for western powers to prepare contingency plans, according to industry sources

Confronted with another ratcheting up of international and regional pressure, Tehran has a number of proxy conflicts in which it can make life uncomfortable for its enemies – and President Ahmadinejad and his allies seem determined to flex their muscles over neighbouring Iraq as the US prepares for its end-year military withdrawal

In the wake of the revelation of a plot to kill Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel Al-Jubeir, blamed on the Iranian Quds Force, there has been a marked escalation of rhetoric against Tehran, which reached fever-pitch ahead of the release of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s report on 8 November.

As the UAE builds defence capabilities and US backing helps the region stand up to the Iranian threat, the possibility of an Emirati gambit in the Abu Musa and Tunb islands seems more credible

If the Houthi rebellion flares up into a sixth major round of fighting, Saudi Arabia will probably be a combatant almost from the outset. Initially Saudi support would probably be low visibility, including a surge or money, equipment and air support.

The activation of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in September, followed by the publication of excerpts from an allegedly leaked document questioning its safety, have increased fears of a large scale calamity in the Gulf.