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Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.

The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar's exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate's coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN's periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran's powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a 'wild west' feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts.

The Iranian navy’s new naval base had been brought to active service near Jask, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts believe the base would not be operational during any US-Iran showdown.

There was a lull in the speculation over the potential bombing of Iran by the United States or - more likely - its ally Israel, with the world transfixed by Barak Obama's victory in the US presidential election. Talk of significant offensive action against Tehran became intense during the late summer, with two theories circulating on the eventuality of a strike to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities and perhaps other targets. One theory was that the outgoing Bush administration would sanction a strike as its last neo-conservative hurrah; and, two, that Israel would be emboldened to act. In September, UK daily The Guardian, added to the debate by publishing details of documents showing how Washington had sought to rein in Israeli hawks who were ready to attack.

The Saudi Eurofighter purchase has given the European consortium a vital lead in the long-term market for the RSAF’s eventual replacement of some 178 strike aircraft by around 2020. Boeing may yet sell F-15s to the RSAF, but if the United States is betting on major sales in the Gulf, it is to Iraq and the UAE, not the Kingdom. France is also a player, with its hopes for major combat aircraft sales analysed by GSN in an article below.

Yemeni-based militants constitute one external threat to expatriates. Indeed, the prospect of establishing bases in Yemen has been mentioned prominently in militant communiqués and in Saudi government statements since 2006.

The ‘hard stop’ armed takedown of a vehicle at a government checkpoint – a regular occurrence in 2004-05 – has become so rare that the unsuccessful 14 October attempt to stop a suspected terrorist vehicle in Eastern Riyadh was big news. The authorities seem to have the jihadist challenge under control, but Yemeni-based militants still pose a threat, as does potential ‘blow-back’ from Iraq

It was only a matter of time before Iraq’s regional defence role returned in some shape or the other, and that day may come sooner than many would have expected, with Baghdad pushing to create a national force that would place over a million Iraqis in uniform, some of them in units loyal to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, and aiming to snuff out domestic threats.

An Iraqi-led operation in Diyala province shows how Baghdad’s most intractable opponents are being squeezed. Operation Bashaer Al-Khair (Omens of Prosperity) kicked off three days earlier than anticipated in Diyala province, but otherwise came as no surprise. After other supposedly intractable security blackspots had been tackled this year – first Basra, then Baghdad’s Sadr City, then Mosul and

The jihadist threat to foreign interests may be waning with the gradual whittling down of the cadre of (known) hardened Yemeni militants. This war of attrition – analysed at length in GSN over the past year, with an update on Al-Qaeda in Yemen/Jund Al-Yemen in Defence and security, below – may not yet signal the threat’s end. But it has convinced governments and corporations that Yemen remains a place where their citizens can travel and where money can be made if care is taken.

The death of the Al-Tamimi brigade’s Hamza Al-Qayti deprived the jihadist movement of a senior leader and suggested that the security forces may have turned the tide against ‘Al-Qaeda’s’ Jund Al-Yemen arm, following confidence-sapping attacks in H2 2007 and H1 2008. But it is premature to say that the threat has gone away.

The  New  Yorker magazine,  required  reading  for  MidEast watchers,  has  revived  suggestions  of  a  “new”  link  between Iraqi intelligence  and  Osama  Bin  Laden’s Al-Qaeda network. Its claim that the two pariahs jointly ran a terrorist organisation in Kurdish northern Iraq—if true—could provide the smoking gun  that  US hawks  have  been  seeking  to  take  the  “war against terrorism” to Iraq. Efforts to link 11 September suicide hijacker Mohammed  Atta with  Iraqi  intelligence  in  the  Czech Republic did  not  convince,  and  until  now  the  Central Intelligence  Agency — but  not  its  influential  former  directorJames  Woolsey—had  largely  discounted  reported  links between President Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda.

Saudi Arabia Newsletter: The present urgent political concerns of Saudi Arabian leaders may be concentrated on the latest Iranian irruption into Iraqi territory,' but not so exclusively that the breakdown of the King Hussein-Yasser Arafat joint peace process is not a matter of equal pre-occupation for the Saudi government.