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Never slow to see a sector in need of its input, London-based Policy Exchange, which has been described as the largest and most influential think tank on the centre-right wing of British politics, has launched a new National Security Unit. It was inaugurated with a keynote address on nuclear deterrence by defence secretary Michael Fallon; former Nato secretary-general and New Labour grandee Lord Robertson of Port Ellen delivered a vote of thanks. The new unit is headed by Dr John Bew, of King’s College London’s War Studies Department and a former Henry A Kissinger chair at the Library of Congress.

Analysts are coming to terms with the significant shake-up in the security services running parallel to the federal reshuffle driven by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ). Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan was appointed national security advisor, with his predecessor Sheikh Hazza Bin Zayed now vice-chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council. In the Ministry of Interior, Sheikh Khalid Bin Mohammed Bin Zayed assumed chairmanship of the State Security Department, at the level of minister.

Further violence has been reported as tension persists in parts of Eastern Province following the execution of dissident cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr. Masked men threw firebombs at an intelligence service compound in Qatif, Reuters reported activists saying on 11 January. A Ministry of Interior spokesman said, “there was a failed terrorist attempt to burn the building with Molotov cocktails”, and one of the assailants was captured.

Morocco’s Bureau Central d’Investigations Judiciaires (BCIJ) on 8 January reported breaking up a seven-member “terrorist cell” in Dar Bouazza, on the western edge of Casablanca. The group had pledged allegiance to Islamic State, recruiting Moroccans and dispatching them to camps for military training – before returning them home to carry out terrorist operations in the kingdom, BCIJ claimed. Morocco is an active ally of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in regional conflicts, sending aircraft to fly in the Yemen campaign. In mid-December, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Co-operation responded to news agency reports of Moroccan soldiers dying in Yemen, which it said were “without foundation”.

The execution of 47 Islamist militants the authorities had linked to terrorism was filled with symbolism: for Riyadh it marked the kingdom’s determination to show zero tolerance of terrorism and extremist Sunni or Shia takfiri (deviant) ideology; in Iran it was seen as yet another provocation against the region’s Shiite populations, leading radicals to invade Saudi legations in Tehran and Mashhad.

Defence minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) on 15 December announced that Saudi Arabia had formed the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, a coalition of 34 mainly Sunni countries – with Gulf Co-operation Council partners Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE (but not Oman) on a list that also included Egypt, Pakistan, Malaysia, Chad, Nigeria and Turkey – to co-ordinate the fight against “terrorist organisations”.

The first report from the House of Commons Defence Select Committee on the imminent government Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) provides a checklist of 11 potential threats and general vulnerabilities which ought to be addressed, and points to weaknesses in the UK response. It questions the government’s “tiered” approach to mapping the threat picture – which is soon to be set out in a new National Security Strategy – arguing that “it is flawed in assuming that the probability of potential threats becoming actual ones can reliably be predicted”. Greater emphasis should be given to military flexibility, the MPs said.

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani declared a welcome victory with the 12-13 November ousting of Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) from Sinjar, liberating the Yazidi town more than a year after its traumatic occupation and severing Highway 47, a main supply route between IS-held territory in Iraq and Syria. Following the projection of US-led airpower – the US Department of Defence reported more than 30 airstrikes on Sinjar and surrounding areas during the offensive’s first day – the Kurdish advance, involving an estimated 7,500 troops, was largely unopposed.

A previously unknown branch of Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) claimed responsibility on 16 October for the murder of five and wounding of nine Shia worshippers at a mosque in the Saihat neighbourhood between Al-Qatif and Damman in Eastern Province’s main urban area. In an online statement, the so-called Bahrain Province group claimed it had sent gunman Shuja Al-Dosari to kill what it derogatorily called “rafida” (IS-speak for those who reject the Sunni way) as they completed their “polytheist rituals”, in reality Friday prayers. Bahrain Province is the third self-proclaimed branch of IS to emerge this year in the Arabian Peninsula.

The US embassy in Riyadh issued a warning on 1 October, after it had “been made aware of information indicating that there are threats against unspecified compounds in which United States citizens reside in the Eastern Province”. Saudi authorities are actively investigating the threat, it said.

Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) has been making progress in northern Yemen, with militants pictured distributing leaflets in districts of Sanaa that the jihadist group has apparently wrested from the Houthi rebels and their allies. In this offensive, IS’ jihadist rival Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has suffered setbacks and the Saudi-led coalition has taken more casualties. IS on 6 October claimed responsibility for a series of bombings in Sanaa and Aden (now occupied by the coalition), which killed at least 25 people.

The Russian intervention in Syria, coupled with an intensification of operations against Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) in Iraq and Syria, could represent a real setback for jihadist groups in the Levantine war zones (see GSN view). However, it has significantly increased the threat of ‘blowback’, not only in Europe but also in North African states which have provided thousands of recruits.

A Syrian identified as Yaser Mohammed Al-Barrazi and a Filipino “accomplice” were arrested in a raid on an illegal explosives factory in Riyadh, the Ministry of Interior said on 3 October. Al-Barrazi has been accused of plotting attacks. The raid, which took place on 1 October, found two explosives belts and bomb-making equipment. Those arrested belonged to a “deviant group”, the ministry said, using terminology often applied by the authorities to Al-Qaeda or Islamic State affiliates.

The 1970s opened with the Gulf monarchies searching for a security architecture fit for their purposes as the post-imperial United Kingdom withdrew from its dominance ‘east of Suez’. The six states that eventually created the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in May 1981 – to which was added the Peninsula Shield force in 1984 – used the 1970s to resource their first major steps towards building well-equipped, western-backed armed forces. Riding high on a sea of petrodollars, Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest arms buyer by mid-decade, ordering $2.5bn-worth of arms in 1976 alone (approximately $10.5bn in today’s dollars).

A report by the Saudi-owned daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the suspected mastermind of the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing had been handed over to Saudi authorities threatens further complications in Riyadh’s relations with Iran and the United States, ahead of congressional votes on the nuclear deal and President Barack Obama’s scheduled 4 September meeting with King Salman Bin Abdelaziz at the White House. Ahmed Al-Mughassil, a senior leader of Iranian-backed Saudi group Hizbollah Al-Hijaz, had been living in Beirut under Lebanese Hizbollah’s protection.