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Yemeni-based militants constitute one external threat to expatriates. Indeed, the prospect of establishing bases in Yemen has been mentioned prominently in militant communiqués and in Saudi government statements since 2006.

It was only a matter of time before Iraq’s regional defence role returned in some shape or the other, and that day may come sooner than many would have expected, with Baghdad pushing to create a national force that would place over a million Iraqis in uniform, some of them in units loyal to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, and aiming to snuff out domestic threats.

According to Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi, terrorism and tribal rebellions have cost Yemen more than $2bn in economic losses. He has appealed to international donors to help. In early October, President Ali Abdullah Saleh arrived

Although the word 'coup' has been thrown around regularly in Baghdad since 2004, it has typically related to an imagined American step to seize direct control of the government once again by ousting elected leaders. Now, for the first time since Saddam Hussein's fall, the prospect of a slow-burning military takeover of politics is re-emerging as a credible threat.

The jihadist threat to foreign interests may be waning with the gradual whittling down of the cadre of (known) hardened Yemeni militants. This war of attrition – analysed at length in GSN over the past year, with an update on Al-Qaeda in Yemen/Jund Al-Yemen in Defence and security, below – may not yet signal the threat’s end. But it has convinced governments and corporations that Yemen remains a place where their citizens can travel and where money can be made if care is taken.

The death of the Al-Tamimi brigade’s Hamza Al-Qayti deprived the jihadist movement of a senior leader and suggested that the security forces may have turned the tide against ‘Al-Qaeda’s’ Jund Al-Yemen arm, following confidence-sapping attacks in H2 2007 and H1 2008. But it is premature to say that the threat has gone away.