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The cadre of politicians that loosely follow Moqtada Al-Sadr’s leadership did surprisingly well in the provincial elections, given they were largely written off as being politically splintered and militarily humbled after 18 months of pummelling by government forces, operated by their rivals and supported by the United States.

The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar's exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate's coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN's periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran's powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a 'wild west' feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts.

As Saudi security forces in Makkah and Medina remain busy preparing for this year’s Hajj pilgrimage, securocrats continue to fret at the possibility of a major anti-western attack in Riyadh or Eastern Province. Memories of the recent interrupted reconnaissance

KAF Apache support deal for DynCorp BAE Systems in Eurofighter Typhoon talks with Oman. Qatar-India defence co-operation

Iraq is the other major source of advanced terrorist capability in Saudi Arabia, leading the Kingdom to quietly take steps to reduce potential blowback. The September announcement of a mutual extradition treaty between Saudi Arabia and Iraq received little media coverage but represents a significant development. The treaty stipulated “the exchange of convicted prisoners… so that they serve the rest of..

Yemeni-based militants constitute one external threat to expatriates. Indeed, the prospect of establishing bases in Yemen has been mentioned prominently in militant communiqués and in Saudi government statements since 2006.

The ‘hard stop’ armed takedown of a vehicle at a government checkpoint – a regular occurrence in 2004-05 – has become so rare that the unsuccessful 14 October attempt to stop a suspected terrorist vehicle in Eastern Riyadh was big news. The authorities seem to have the jihadist challenge under control, but Yemeni-based militants still pose a threat, as does potential ‘blow-back’ from Iraq

According to Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi, terrorism and tribal rebellions have cost Yemen more than $2bn in economic losses. He has appealed to international donors to help. In early October, President Ali Abdullah Saleh arrived

Although the word 'coup' has been thrown around regularly in Baghdad since 2004, it has typically related to an imagined American step to seize direct control of the government once again by ousting elected leaders. Now, for the first time since Saddam Hussein's fall, the prospect of a slow-burning military takeover of politics is re-emerging as a credible threat.

It was only a matter of time before Iraq’s regional defence role returned in some shape or the other, and that day may come sooner than many would have expected, with Baghdad pushing to create a national force that would place over a million Iraqis in uniform, some of them in units loyal to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, and aiming to snuff out domestic threats.

The jihadist threat to foreign interests may be waning with the gradual whittling down of the cadre of (known) hardened Yemeni militants. This war of attrition – analysed at length in GSN over the past year, with an update on Al-Qaeda in Yemen/Jund Al-Yemen in Defence and security, below – may not yet signal the threat’s end. But it has convinced governments and corporations that Yemen remains a place where their citizens can travel and where money can be made if care is taken.

The death of the Al-Tamimi brigade’s Hamza Al-Qayti deprived the jihadist movement of a senior leader and suggested that the security forces may have turned the tide against ‘Al-Qaeda’s’ Jund Al-Yemen arm, following confidence-sapping attacks in H2 2007 and H1 2008. But it is premature to say that the threat has gone away.