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In recent weeks, the US has shifted the focus of its awesome arsenal of air and missile power to Yugoslavia. This shift necessitated the transfer of some aircraft from Turkish bases, from where they were operating over northern Iraq. Nonetheless, the programme of US air strikes on Iraq has persisted.

The recent tour of the GCC states by US Secretary of Defense William Cohen had a number of familiar features. Perceived widely in the Arab world as the latest US attempt to sell arms through scare-mongering about Iraq and Iran, the tour inflamed the Arab press. Worse yet, it drew attention to growing Arab uneasiness over the escalating Anglo-American air strikes against Iraq.

The death of Bahrain’s Emir, Sheikh Isa bin Salman Al Khalifah, on 6 March marked the start of a new era in Bahraini politics. Sheikh Isa’s death was however of wider relevance since his departure was a reminder of the mortality of the GCC’s other elderly rulers. In typical slow-motion fashion, power in the GCC states is passing from the founding fathers to the newer generation. Whether the new rulers will be able to cope with the complex demands of ruling their societies in a rapidly changing world remains to be seen.

The Republic of Yemen has most of the trappings of a modern nation state. Since the Civil War it has a unified territory, one government, one army and all the bureaucratic apparatus that a modern state should have. With the encouragement of international bodies such as the IMF and World Bank it has even been reforming its legal system to improve efficiency

The Iraqi opposition's latest plan of action can be summarised in a few sentences: when everything else fails re-cycle the same old ideas about knocking Saddam off his perch through the creation of a safe-haven – but in the south this time not in the north. Pray that disaffected army units and a few pro-West generals will take refuge in this safe haven and eventually encourage the army to revolt. Talk about uniting the Iraqi opposition and even appoint a special US representative for Iraq's transition. And just to make sure Saddam is well informed, publish articles about your plans in the western press.

January ended with a draw in the confrontation between Iraq and the USA. Baghdad’s marginalisation at the Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Cairo was swiftly followed by a US own goal when American strike aircraft accidentally hit civilian targets in southern Iraq. Tragic as the Iraqi deaths were, Washington was correct to take them in its stride. The worst option now would be to waver at a time when the Saddam regime is facing increasing isolation.

For some years, Arab governments, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have been protesting at the activities of Islamist militants in the UK. Whitehall has responded sympathetically, for instance by tightening anti-terrorist legislation. At the same time, however, liberal circles in Britain have warned against helping repressive Arab regimes to crack down on freedom of expression.

The Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, held Abu Dhabi in mid-December, appeared superficially different from previous meetings in a number of ways. South Africa’s President Nelson Mandela, the UN chief, Kofi Annan, and the secretary-general of the Arab League, Esmet Abdel Meguid, all

Milipol 98, the police and internal security exhibition held last month in Qatar, was hailed as a success by the companies and governments that flocked to the Gulf emirate’s balmy coastline. While the trade fair may have enhanced Qatar’s status as a regional conference and mercantile centre, the more important lesson was the growing attention that Gulf and Arab rulers are having to pay to internal security.

Within four days of the resumption of UNSCOM inspections in Iraq, the British and American governments once again found themselves threatening air strikes. Baghdad’s initial co-operativeness quickly disappeared once the US and UK backed UNSCOM demands that documents relating to Iraq’s weapons programmes be handed over.

The demise of Martin Indyk and Anthony Lake’s policy of dual containment has been most evident in relation to Iran. Gradually warming USIranian relations have led the US to rethink its strategy and tactics towards the Islamic Republic, as have the GCC states. Policy towards Iraq has been more inflexible, with the Clinton Administration firmly committed to isolating and possibly even removing Saddam Hussein.

US Defence Secretary William Cohen’s recent tour of the GCC provided an insight into changes in US policy towards the Gulf region. The tour displayed a number of facets of what some academics have described as the post-dual containment `policy with no name’. Chief amongst these were a concerted effort to assuage Arab fears and recognise Arab sensibilities in relation to Iraq. Unfortunately, this was accompanied by a continuing insensitivity to evolving Arab perceptions of Iran and changing attitudes to defence-related spending in the current economic climate in the Gulf.

The Turkish-Syrian crisis has caught the world napping. Distracted by the Iran-Taleban confrontation and NATO’s threats against Serbia, the international community is only just taking notice of the escalating Turkish campaign against Syria. This campaign is however a logical result of the changing balance of power in the region and the Turkish-Israeli attempts to reshape the Mashreq. Even if Syria and Turkey back down from a full-scale armed confrontation, the shockwaves of this confrontation could spread far and wide.

Nothing is ever as it seems in northern Iraq. Washington may have succeeded in bringing Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani together but does this represent more of a blow to Saddam or to Turkey? Is this latest US-mediated Kurdish agreement likely to contribute to America’s attempts to revitalise the Iraqi opposition? The answers to these questions are not at all clear – there are simply too many tangled strands and rival interests at stake in northern Iraq.

The bombings of the US embassies in East Africa and the subsequent US attacks on Afghanistan and Sudan again brought to prominence in the Western media the figure of Osama Bin Laden. Although much ink has been spilt writing about him, many details of his background and associations, former and present, remain unclear.